Applying Lanchester's linear law to model the Ardennes campaign

In modern warfare, many believe the decisive factor in winning a battle is seizing the right moment to shift from defense to attack, or vice versa. This paper attempts to bring that perspective to Lanchester's differential equations of warfare, and continues the application of Lanchester's linear law to the analysis of the World War II battle of Ardennes, as reported in earlier issues of Naval Research Logistics by Bracken and by Fricker. A new variable, shift time, accounting for the timing of the shift between defense and attack is explicitly included in our version of the model, and it helps obtain improved goodness of fit to historical data. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:653–661, 2001     

自适应数据库应用系统的开发方法与实现

在数据库应用系统开发过程中 ,往往需要考虑系统的自适应性。介绍用PowerBuilder实现动态修改表结构、数据处理界面和打印表格格式的方法 ,从而达到使系统具有自适应性的目的。     

一种并行工程冲突管理原型系统的开发

并行产品开发模式下,由于设计者知识的局限性、系统资源的有限性等多种因素的限制,冲突的产生是不可避免的。为减少冲突,提高产品开发效率,文章以坦克火控系统的研制为背景,用面向对象的程序设计语言Visual Basic 6.0编写源程序,通过VB6.0附带的工具程序“可视化数据管理器”建立数据库,开发了一种并行工程冲突管理原型系统。该系统界面友好,功能强大,不仅有效地检测和解决了产品开发、过程中可能出现的冲突,而且它对面向数据库的数据处理系统的开发,具有一定的参考价值。     

分布式多传感器多目标跟踪融合算法

在多传感器多目标跟踪系统中,通常采用分布式融合方法和集中式融合方法。分布式融合方法具有结构简单、计算量小等优点,采用分布式融合方法更为广泛。对分布式多传感多目标跟踪融合方法、关联和估计算法进行了分析和综述,并重点讨论了传统的关联算法和神经网络、模糊技术关联算法,指出了有待进一步研究的方向。     

低导航精度下多舰雷达数据空间配准方法

海上多舰火控雷达数据融合系统中,导航数据精度低、地球表面不平坦都将给传感器数据的空间配准带来工程实现困难。提出一种基于雷达相对定位的多平台观测数据配准方法,用于解决以罗兰C为主要导航设备的多舰数据配准问题。性能分析和仿真实验表明,该方法对导航设备精度的要求不高,具有较强的实用性。     

被动雷达/红外成像双模制导数据融合方案

提出了被动雷达/红外成像双模制导数据融合方案。针对雷达和红外成像测量数据率不同的特性,研究了被动雷达/红外成像测量输出时间同步校准算法;根据雷达和红外成像测量输出的目标冗余信息对各自测量噪声方差进行在线实时估计,提出了一种具有自适应修正能力的卡尔曼滤波算法;采用神经网络—模糊推理方法设计了具有自主判别能力的测量信息有效性判别系统,提出了基于测量信息置信度的加权融合算法。通过仿真验证了该方案的有效性。     

军事训练演习数据汇集与融合系统的设计与实现

实现海量军事训练演习数据的汇集与融合,是生成相应的作战效能数据的基础。结合军事训练基地数据的收集与运用现状,提出了一个基于Web服务的多源异构数据汇集与融合系统的解决方案：运用XML Schema技术实现了异构数据模式的标准化转换,完成了多源数据的汇集;以作战平台为中心,以作战效能的各项影响因素为维度,实现了相关数据的融合。设计了系统的功能与架构并加以实现。运行情况表明,系统能够满足功能需求,具备良好的数据整合与处理能力。     

The myth of Afghan electoral democracy: the irregularities of the 2014 presidential election

ABSTRACT

This article systematically assesses the 2014 Afghanistan Presidential Election, the first transfer of power from President Hamid Karzai to an elected successor, using provincial voting data as well as explicit data from polling centers. The analysis finds unusual voting results in the April election, where no candidate received 50%+1 votes required by the Afghan constitution, versus the voting results realized for the June ‘runoff election.’ As in other Afghan voting analyses, this article finds voting based on ethno-linguistic preferences, and interestingly found Dr. Ashraf Ghani receiving almost all the swing votes in the runoff election even though the other leading candidate from the April election all endorsed Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. More importantly, however, the research presented here clearly finds extremely strange voting patterns. For example, the polling data center analysis finds 606 polling places where Ghani received all 600 votes and Abdullah received none and another 900 polling centers that gave virtually all its votes to Ghani. These results in combination with other analyses raise the very real possibility that the election results were illegitimate. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of the research to future Afghan elections and their processes as well as to the long-standing conflict in the country.     

装备需求论证工具化研究

以体系工程思想和DoDAF2．0为指导,在系统分析国内外装备需求论证工具软件研制现状和存在的问题基础上,提出了装备需求论证工具化概念及其软件功能需求,优化设计了工具软件体系结构框架,并着重探讨了软件集成和数据模型等关键支撑技术,为装备需求论证工具化实践奠定了理论基础。     

指挥所目标识别专家系统的实现

在分析国内外敌我识别技术的现状及发展趋势的基础上,针对我军的具体实际,利用专家系统技术,提出了基于多情报源信息融合技术的目标识别方法,并给出了基于客户/服务器模式的系统实现结构图。