Defense Burden and the Effect of Democracy: Evidence from a Spatial Panel Analysis

ABSTRACT

Do democracies spend less on national defense? This paper provides new evidence of the effect of democracy on defense burden based on a Spatial Durbin Model with panel data for 98 countries for the years 1992–2008. While democracy measured by means of an index variable covering the entire range from perfect democracy to perfect autocracy turns out to be insignificant, dummy variables indicating transition to higher levels of democracy reveal a statistically highly significant negative effect of democracy on a country’s defense burden. Allowing for country-specific effects reveals heterogeneity in the effect of democracy across countries. Apart from the effect of democracy, the estimation results indicate strong spatial dependence of military burdens across countries. Moreover, they provide statistical evidence for a peace dividend, for substitution effects in defense spending and for a negative effect on the military burden for countries when they exhibit a trade surplus instead of a trade deficit.     

Emotions,Risk Perceptions and Precautionary Actions of Citizens During a Military Operation Using a New Defence Technology: The Israeli Case of the Iron Dome

Abstract

The current field study used unique data collected in Israel in July 2014, during a military operation that the Israel Defence Forces (I.D.F.) conducted in the Gaza Strip, in reaction to the thousands of missiles launched from there into Israel. During this operation, the new Iron Dome anti-missile defence system was used to protect Israelis exposed to missile attacks. The study examined factors that correlate with decisions to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions regarding behaviour during missile attacks. In addition, the study examined the relationship between attitudes towards the Iron Dome technology and emotions, risk perceptions, and the decision to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions. The results indicate that stronger positive opinions towards Iron Dome were correlated with lower levels of fear and anger, and beliefs that participant’s chances of being injured by a missile were lower than they had been during previous military operation. In addition, better compliance with I.D.F. defence instructions correlated with being more fearful, angrier at Hamas, living closer to Gaza Strip, and having more positive opinions about Iron Dome. The findings also indicate gender differences with respect to factors correlated with risk perceptions, opinions regarding Iron Dome, and precautionary actions during attacks.     

基于协同交战的战术数据链技术研究

介绍了外军典型战术数据链的发展情况,同时根据未来网络化作战需求,对基于协同交战的战术数据链的作战使用进行了研究,提出了基于协同交战的战术数据链体系结构、功能需求和指标需求,最后给出了基于协同交战的战术数据链的发展建议.     

面向时空交通栅格流量预测的3D通道注意力网络

城市交通流量预测对交通管理和公共安全具有重要意义。然而,交通栅格流量数据中的规律在时刻变化,在城市中存在全局范围的时空间关系,并且不同特征通道在每个城市区域上有不同的重要性。为解决这些挑战并做出更准确的预测,设计了一种新颖的时空神经网络模型——3D通道注意力网络(three-dimensional channel-wise attention networks,3D-CANet)。提出一个3D通道内注意力(three-dimensional inner channel attention,3D-InnerCA)单元来动态捕获各个通道中不同的全局时空相关性,同时设计通道间注意力(inter channel attention,InterCA)单元来自适应地重校准每个区域上不同特征通道的贡献。在3个真实交通栅格流量数据集上的实验结果表明,3D-CANet模型的预测能力优于其他对比方法,证明了模型的有效性。     

基于CPLD与单片机的多路高精度数据采集系统设计

结合CPLD与单片机设计了一种多路高精度数据采集系统,最高可达24位转换精度。所采集数据具备良好的实时性,可采集通道数目多,同时系统具备较强的抗外界干扰能力,结构简单,可靠性好。该系统具有较强的可移植性,能够广泛应用于多路、高精度、低频数据采集的场合。     

雷达调频编码脉冲信号的设计与处理

现代雷达为获得较高的距离分辨力通常采用编码频率脉冲串信号和步进频率脉冲串信号,但都存在数据率低和较为严重的距离-多普勒耦合问题。在研究这两种信号特点的基础上,提出了调频编码脉冲信号形式并给出了相应的信号处理方法。经仿真对比可见,该信号形式及其处理方法能同时解决步进调频信号高距离-多普勒耦合、低数据率两大问题,具有较好的联合分辨力。     

多样化军事任务异构数据集成应用方法

为实现多源异构作战数据高效融合共享,提出了改进型中间件异构数据集成框架,设计了作战数据融合运用核心组件,实现了多源异构作战数据综合应用平台,提高了各类作战数据的融合运用效率,为指挥员及时掌握战场态势,高效科学决策提供了数据支撑。     

基于CPN的TDRS操作规划建模与仿真

以中继卫星(Racking and Data Relay Satellite,TDRS)为研究对象,以有色Petri网(Colored Petri Net,CPN)为数学工具,根据自顶向下的原则和层次化建模思想,提出一种基于CPN的TDRS操作规划模型,该模型分为顶层模型、控制模型、前向链路数据接收任务与发送任务的操作规划模型和返向链路数据接收任务与发送任务的操作规划模型,有效地描述了TDRS的动态行为特性。最后,通过仿真实验得到了TDRS操作规划方案,验证了所建模型的有效性。与PDDL模型比较分析表明:所建模型可以有效引入TDRS的领域知识,能够有效提高求解效率。所建模型可以为TDRS操作规划方案的制定提供理论参考。     

面向大规模地理矢量线数据的多层级实时可视化技术

针对主流方法难以满足多层级实时可视化的需求,提出面向大规模地理矢量线数据的多层级实时可视化技术。建立面向多层级瓦片绘制的自适应可视化模型,设计像元四叉R(pixel quad R, PQR)树空间索引和基于PQR树的自适应可视化算法,分别用于支撑模型的数据组织和可视绘制。在10亿规模数据集上的实验表明：该技术在0.57 s内可计算任一层级上的可视结果,并且计算耗时大幅小于主流方法。当数据规模急剧增长时,该技术在各显示层级上仍具有较好的可视性能,最低可视速率超过100张/s,大幅优于主流方法。该技术在单机条件下即可支撑大规模地理矢量线数据的多层级实时可视化,在空间大数据探索分析领域具备较好的应用前景。     

EEMD+BiGRU组合模型在短时交通流量预测中的应用

针对城市交通流随机波动性强、数据中含噪声多导致预测精度下降的问题,提出一种基于集合经验模态分解(ensemble empirical mode decomposition,EEMD)和双向门控循环单元(bidirectional gated recurrent unit,BiGRU)的组合交通流量预测模型,有效地提升了短时交通流预测的精度。模型利用EEMD算法对原始数据进行分解,根据分解所得的本征模函数(intrinsic mode function,IMF)分量绘制噪声能量图谱,去除分量中的噪声,并将去噪后的IMF分量作为BiGRU网络的输入进行训练,再将训练所得的结果进行重构加和,得到最终的预测结果。实验结果表明,未舍弃含有噪声的IMF分量进行重构的预测结果,相比于参考文献中提出的EMD+LSTM模型、LSTM模型和EEMD+LSTM模型,其平均绝对百分误差分别优化了42.36%、61.82%和30.95%;舍弃含有噪声的IMF分量后进行重构的预测结果,其平均绝对百分误差相比于将全部IMF分量进行重构优化了56.62%。