MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Defence expenditures have both costs and benefits to the economy. The costs of defence expenditures are mainly emphasized as opportunity costs. On the other hand, defence spending may have growth‐promoting potential benefits: a rise in defence spending may result in a higher aggregate demand, production and employment. This paper examines empirically the effects of military expenditures on economic growth for Middle Eastern countries and Turkey, for the time‐period 1989–1999. The relationship between military expenditure and economic growth is investigated by using cross‐section and dynamic panel estimation techniques. Empirical analysis indicates that military expenditure enhances economic growth in the Middle Eastern countries and Turkey as a whole.     

Determinants of military expenditure and the role of globalisation in a cross-country analysis

Abstract

Anecdotal evidence offers conflicting views on the impact of globalisation on military expenditure. We contribute to the existing literature by investigating the effect of globalisation on military expenditure in 82 countries for the period, 1989–2012. After introducing economic and strategic variables into the model, we utilise the dynamic panel generalised method of moments system to estimate the relationship in the variables. The empirical findings reveal that globalisation reduces both military burden and real military expenditure. The findings are consistent, irrespective of the globalisation indicator adopted. The policy implications of the results are explained.     

Military Expenditure,Endogeneity and Economic Growth

Abstract

While not always a concern for the general economic growth literature, the debate over the effects of military spending on growth continues to develop, with no consensus, but a deepening understanding of the limitations of previous work. One important issue that has not been adequately dealt with is the endogeneity of military spending in the growth equation, mainly because of the difficulty of finding any variables that would make adequate instruments. This paper considers this issue, using an endogenous growth model estimated on a large sample of 109 non-high-income countries for the period 1998–2012. The empirical analysis is framed within an instrumental variable setting that exploits the increase in military spending that occurs when unrest in a country escalates to turmoil. The estimation results show that endogeneity arising from reverse causality is a crucial issue, with the instrumental variable estimates providing a larger significant negative effect of military spending on growth than OLS would. This result is found to be robust to different sources of heterogeneity and different time periods.     

军事任务推演的时空模型与驱动机制

针对军事信息系统的作战任务推演需求,提出了一种基于时空事件序列的、较为完备的高效任务推演方法。论述了基于层次化分解的任务表达机制与实体化策略;针对保障数据定制问题提出了面向任务的时空数据应用模型,以任务最小需求为准则对一体化时空数据集进行多维筛选,有效降低数据的冗余度;详细讨论了时空事件序列模型的定义及其在军事任务推演中的数据驱动模式;结合具体仿真实例进行了应用探讨。原型系统的实现证明了该思路的有效性和可行性。     

基于半实物仿真的HLA／RTI关键技术研究

分析了基于HLA/RTI的半实物仿真中实践管理、数据收集能力、RTI通用性以及网络传输安全等问题,研究了新的时间管理策略,提出了合理设置lookahead的算法,设计了数据收集的层次框架,并制定了研发RTI的通用原则和安全有效的网络传输方案,为现代半实物系统仿真提供了理论借鉴。     

On the effectiveness of top‐down strategy for forecasting autoregressive demands

We investigate the relative effectiveness of top‐down versus bottom‐up strategies for forecasting the demand of an item that belongs to a product family. The demand for each item in the family is assumed to follow a first‐order univariate autoregressive process. Under the top‐down strategy, the aggregate demand is forecasted by using the historical data of the family demand. The demand forecast for the items is then derived by proportional allocation of the aggregate forecast. Under the bottom‐up strategy, the demand forecast for each item is directly obtained by using the historical demand data of the particular item. In both strategies, the forecasting technique used is exponential smoothing. We analytically evaluate the condition under which one forecasting strategy is preferred over the other when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand time series for all the items is identical. We show that when the lag‐1 autocorrelation is smaller than or equal to 1/3, the maximum difference in the performance of the two forecasting strategies is only 1%. However, if the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand for at least one of the items is greater than 1/3, then the bottom‐up strategy consistently outperforms the top‐down strategy, irrespective of the items' proportion in the family and the coefficient of correlation between the item demands. A simulation study reveals that the analytical findings hold even when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand processes is not identical. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

新装备技术资料并行化编制过程研究

研究新型军械装备技术资料的分类及模块化形式,分析装备技术资料编制相关的装备设计流程及保障性分析流程,建立集成化装备信息模型,提出一种装备技术资料并行化编制方法,为新装备及时获取技术资料、及时形成保障能力提供有力的支持.     

基于集对-层次分析法的合成部队作战能力分析

为科学评估合成部队战斗力水平,在准确量化作战行动的基础上,设计定义了39个作战能力最小数据集,抽象出快速反应、情报侦察、指挥控制等11种专题作战能力评价体系。以该标准采集的数据为样本, 运用集对-层次分析法实现了合成部队作战能力的综合评估。最后以火力打击能力评估模型为例,验证了该方法的有效性实用性。     

捷联导引头视线转率估计的交互式多模型样条滤波算法

针对捷联导引头测量信息的弹目惯性视线转率估计,提出了一种基于交互式多模型算法的样条滤波方法(IMM-SF)。基于体视线和惯性视线的映射关系解算惯性视线角,将其作为虚拟观测量进行滤波,设置多个过程噪声模型,每个模型分别采用样条滤波器进行滤波,IMM-SF滤波器的估值结果为各滤波器估值的加权综合。该方法不必对目标的未知机动建模,应用更加方便,并且可在交互式多模型算法的框架下自适应地调整滤波器的噪声。Monte-Carlo仿真结果表明该方法可有效估计视线转率,并可提高估值精度。     

基于动态数据驱动的多UAV实时任务规划

针对在实时动态条件下多UAV任务规划问题,提出了基于动态数据驱动的多UAV实时任务规划仿真平台,主要包括基于MultiUAV2的真实UAV群仿真平台和基于Multi-Agent的预测仿真平台两个部分。采用了A*算法对真实系统工作流进行探索,在此基础之上构建了多UAV合成工作流模型,然后针对动态数据注入运行仿真的问题,研究了传感器任务重置及传感器的预处理方法。最后,通过一个仿真实例验证了提出方法的可行性和有效性。