美国非法证据排除规则与德国证据运用禁止规则之比较

非法获得的证据能否作为定案的依据 ,历来为各国刑事证据理论所关注。美国和德国作为英美法系和大陆法系的典型代表 ,分别确立了非法证据排除规则和证据运用禁止规则。研究了两国排除规则的内涵、发展历史、适用范围及存在差异     

基于概念模型的仿真模型调度决策法

仿真模型调度决策是实现仿真结果合理、可信、可用的重要环节。界定了模型调度决策问题域,引入了模型调度序列表示决策结果,提出了基于UML(unified modeling language)概念模型的模型调度决策法,分析了防空作战仿真模型调度决策示例,为解决舰艇作战仿真模型的调度决策提供可行办法,对复杂军事问题仿真模型调度决策具有一定的理论意义。     

基于贝叶斯网络的空中目标威胁估计方法研究

针对当前威胁估计中存在的问题,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的空中目标威胁估计方法。文章从威胁估计的概念出发,构建了基于贝叶斯网络的威胁估计功能框架,在对输入的防空作战事件进行分类定义的基础上,给出了事件关联在贝叶斯网络中的实现方法,同时对模型的建立步骤进行了说明。文中提出的威胁估计方法在融合了目标威胁先验信息的基础上,通过战场观测到的不确定信息进行推理,其结果具有很强的可信性,相应的建模思路可为威胁估计系统的构建提供有益的参考。文章的最后以一个示例说明了方法的有效性。     

基于功能树的导弹打击系统目标瞄准点选择方法

针对导弹打击系统目标的问题,建立了基于目标功能损伤度的瞄准点选择方法;在对毁伤树方法进行改进的基础上,提出了描述目标结构与工作流程的目标功能树模型,构造出体现目标整体功能下降的优化目标函数,采用模拟退火算法搜索最优解。通过算例对不同的瞄准点选择方案进行比较,发现考虑目标的功能结构特点时,得到的瞄准点明显优于其它方案。     

一种基于改进的ROUSTIDA算法的数据补齐方法

针对ROUSTIDA数据补齐方法存在的问题,提出了一种改进的ROUSTIDA数据补齐方法.该方法首先将条件属性与决策属性区分对待,优先填补决策属性值,避免了不一致决策表的产生;然后,在决策属性相同的前提下填补条件属性缺失值,扩展了原算法的使用范围;最后,通过一个实例说明改进算法补齐后的决策表的确能够获得更集中的决策规则...     

数据挖掘故障诊断专家系统

为了及时准确地对防空导弹飞行试验故障进行诊断,克服传统专家系统获取专家知识的瓶颈,立足于防空导弹飞行试验历史数据,利用数据挖掘的方法获得飞行试验故障模式判定决策树,进而得出导弹故障判定规则,形成故障诊断专家知识库,构建防空导弹故障诊断专家系统.这使数据挖掘和专家系统两者的优点得到充分发挥.     

Real-time prediction of projectile penetration to laminates by training machine learning models withfinite element solver as the trainer

Studies on ballistic penetration to laminates is complicated, but important for design effective protection of structures. Experimental means of study is expensive and can often be dangerous. Numerical simu-lation has been an excellent supplement, but the computation is time-consuming. Main aim of this thesis was to develop and test an effective tool for real-time prediction of projectile penetrations to laminates by training a neural network and a decision tree regression model. A large number of finite element models were developed;the residual velocities of projectiles fromfinite element simulations were used as the target data and processed to produce sufficient number of training samples. Study focused on steel 4340tpolyurea laminates with various configurations. Four different 3D shapes of the projectiles were modeled and used in the training. The trained neural network and decision tree model was tested using independently generated test samples using finite element models. The predicted projectile velocity values using the trained machine learning models are then compared with thefinite element simulation to verify the effectiveness of the models. Additionally, both models were trained using a published experimental data of projectile impacts to predict residual velocity of projectiles for the unseen samples. Performance of both the models was evaluated and compared. Models trained with Finite element simulation data samples were found capable to give more accurate predication, compared to the models trained with experimental data, becausefinite element modeling can generate much larger training set, and thus finite element solvers can serve as an excellent teacher. This study also showed that neural network model performs better with small experimental dataset compared to decision tree regression model.     

多通道舰空导弹武器系统反导决策模型研究

当前水面舰艇面临着严重的反舰导弹威胁,特别是在饱和攻击的条件下,常规的单通道舰空导弹系统已经不能满足作战的需要。多通道舰空导弹武器系统具有同时引导多枚导弹拦截多批目标的能力,可以充分发挥系统的能力,相应的反导决策在防空作战中起到重要作用,反导决策的正确性和合理性直接影响防空作战效果。在对反导决策过程和制约因素进行分析的基础上,通过0-1决策模型,得到了舰空导弹武器反导的优化决策模型,较好地满足了使用多通道舰空导弹系统对多目标打击决策的合理性和有效性。     

Optimization and mediated bartering models for ground delay programs

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the airline community within the United States have adopted a new paradigm for air traffic flow management, called Collaborative Decision Making (CDM). A principal goal of CDM is shared decision‐making responsibility between the FAA and airlines, so as to increase airline control over decisions that involve economic tradeoffs. So far, CDM has primarily led to enhancements in the implementation of Ground Delay Programs, by changing procedures for allocating slots to airlines and exchanging slots between airlines. In this paper, we discuss how these procedures may be formalized through appropriately defined optimization models. In addition, we describe how inter‐airline slot exchanges may be viewed as a bartering process, in which each “round” of bartering requires the solution of an optimization problem. We compare the resulting optimization problem with the current procedure for exchanging slots and discuss possibilities for increased decision‐making capabilities by the airlines. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

面向决策的一体化建模方法及其在兵力筹划中的应用

在对军事决策问题的主要特点进行分析的基础上,提出从军事概念模型到数学模型再到定性推理模型的一体化建模思想.以空军航空兵遂行直接航空火力支援任务为想定背景,根据EATI模板,利用基于UML的Rose工具依次对想定任务的实体、任务、交互等进行分析;对于兵力筹划中的结构化问题建立了机会约束多目标规划数学模型;对于非结构化问题则构造了推理机,推理机体现了定量与定性相结合的决策分析思想.最后,以一个实例验证文章思路的可行性.