主方差分析方法

该文提出一种对高维随机向量 X=( x1 ,x2 ,… ,xp)′p× 1 进行降维处理的实用方法 ,其基本思想是利用矩阵的扫描运算 ,构造 X的很少几个综合指标 (称为主方差变量 )以反映 X的统计特性。给出了该方法的理论依据和直观解释以及算法。特别指出 ,当变量 X多重相关性突出时 ,该文方法显著地优于主成分分析方法。     

对Reimer-Tiemann反应的改进

传统的Reimer-Tiemann反应产率不高(一般低于35%).通过改进反应条件,控制反应过程,使产率提高到60%,并对反应中的有关问题进行了讨论.     

一种基于机载SAR原始回波的多普勒参数估计方法

多普勒参数的估计精度直接影响机载合成孔径雷达系统(SAR)成像质量。根据平均后的方位谱来估计多普勒中心频率,通过计算子图像之间的位移值来估计多普勒调频斜率。为了消除在实际应用中各种干扰的影响,采用了对原始回波数据加窗的方法来提高对估计的准确性。该算法的估计结果可以用于补偿载机运动误差引入的相位误差,从而实现高分辨率成像。通过使用实验数据进行分析,验证了该方法的有效性。     

The “signature” of a coherent system and its application to comparisons among systems

Various methods and criteria for comparing coherent systems are discussed. Theoretical results are derived for comparing systems of a given order when components are assumed to have independent and identically distributed lifetimes. All comparisons rely on the representation of a system's lifetime distribution as a function of the system's “signature,” that is, as a function of the vector p= (p₁, … , p_n), where p_i is the probability that the system fails upon the occurrence of the ith component failure. Sufficient conditions are provided for the lifetime of one system to be larger than that of another system in three different senses: stochastic ordering, hazard rate ordering, and likelihood ratio ordering. Further, a new preservation theorem for hazard rate ordering is established. In the final section, the notion of system signature is used to examine a recently published conjecture regarding componentwise and systemwise redundancy. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 507–523, 1999     

线性可调音速喷嘴工作特性仿真

为了满足组合发动机模态转换的要求,连续稳定调节推进剂流量十分关键。为此,针对气体推进剂,在常规音速喷嘴的基础上设计了一种可调音速喷嘴。通过塞锥改变音速喷嘴的节流面积,进而实现流量的连续调节。采用两次包络线方法设计塞锥型面,使得可调音速喷嘴具有线性的流量特性。采用计算流体动力学数值仿真研究可调音速喷嘴的工作特性。仿真结果表明反压小于临界反压时,可调音速喷嘴流量不受反压影响。可调音速喷嘴保持临界状态的临界反压比随流量的减小呈增大的趋势。线性可调音速喷嘴的流量与塞锥位置有较好的线性关系,其流量系数高且几乎不受塞锥位置的影响。     

新冠肺炎动态病死率分析与疫情预测方法研究【专题】

新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎防控是国家安全体系的重要“战场”,疫情趋势预测是开展疫情科学防控和精准防控的重要基础。本文阐述了疫情动态病死率概念,分析了疫情动态病死率函数和时间曲线,提出了动态病死率发展的3个重要拐点,从动态病死率和新增确诊病人数两个维度,构建了拟合曲线函数,并对疫情发展趋势进行了预测。研究发现,截至2月10日,本次疫情动态病死率已经经过了第3个拐点,趋于稳定;预计到2月16日左右,新增确诊人数达到第3个拐点,进入缓慢下降期;预计2月底底至3月初,每日新增确诊人数将在1000人以内,全国最终的“病死率”将在2%～4%左右。该预测方法是一种运用系统外部特征信息来研判疫情发展规律的较为简便快捷的方法,对于科学预测疫情发展趋势具有一定的参考借鉴价值。     

Studies on the flame propagation characteristic and thermal hazard of the premixed N2O/fuel mixtures

An experimental study was carried out to investigate the flame propagation and thermal hazard of the premixed N₂O/fuel mixtures, including NH₃, C₃H₈ and C₂H₄. The study provided the high speed video images and data about the flame locations, propagation patterns, overpressures and the quenching diameters during the course of combustion in different channels to elucidate the dynamics of various combustion processes. The onset decomposition temperature was determined using high-performance adiabatic calorimetry. It was shown that the order of the flame acceleration rate and thermal hazard was N₂O/C₂H₄>N₂O/C₃H₈>N₂O/NH₃.     

Effects of material of metallic frame on the penetration resistances of ceramic-metal hybrid structures

The effects of metallic material on the penetration resistances of ceramic-metal hybrid structures against vertical long-rod tungsten projectiles were studied by artillery-launched experiments and numerical simulation. Hybrid structures with rectangular cores in transverse orthogonal arrangement and slide-fitting ceramic inserts of zirconia toughened alumina prisms were fabricated with titanium alloy TC4 (Ti6Al4V), AISI 4340 steel and 7075 aluminum alloy panels, respectively. The results showed that the hybrid structure of Ti6Al4V exhibited the highest penetration resistance, followed by that of 7075 aluminum alloy with the same area density. The penetration resistance of the hybrid structure of AISI 4340 steel was the lowest. The underlying mechanisms showed that the metallic material of a ceramic-metal hybrid structure can directly affect its energy absorption from the impact projectile, which further affects its penetration resistance. Different metallic frames exhibited different failure characteristics, resulting in different constraint conditions or support conditions for ceramic prisms. The high penetration resistance of the Ti6Al4V hybrid structure was due to its stronger back support to ceramic prisms as compared with that of AISI 4340 steel hybrid structure, and better constraint condition for ceramic prisms by metallic webs as compared with that of 7075 aluminum alloy hybrid structure. The results of mass efficiency and thickness efficiency showed that the Ti6Al4V hybrid structure has advantages in reducing both the thickness and the mass of protective structure. In addition, because the ceramic-metal hybrid structures in the present work were heterogeneous, impact position has slight influence on their penetration resistances.     

大型复合材料空间刚架缩比模型设计方法

缩比模型试验是获取大型复合材料空间刚架力学特性或响应的一种有效途径,其中一项重要内容是缩比模型设计。以大型复合材料空间刚架为研究对象,阐述已有传统方法的局限性;基于离散相似提出结合有限元方法的方程分析法,利用该方法推导大型复合材料空间刚架静力学响应和动特性的相似关系;利用所提方法设计某复合材料龙骨的1/5缩比模型,并通过试验进行验证。验证结果表明,所提方法和推导的相似关系能够用于指导大型复合材料空间刚架的缩比模型试验。     

一种应用聚类技术检测网络入侵的新方法

基于聚类技术提出了一种能处理不带标识且含异常数据样本的训练集数据的网络入侵检测方法。对网络连接数据作归一化处理后 ,通过比较数据样本间距离与类宽度W的关系进行数据类质心的自动搜索 ,并通过计算样本数据与各类质心的最小距离来对各样本数据进行类划分 ,同时根据各类中的样本数据动态调整类质心 ,使之更好地反映原始数据分布。完成样本数据的类划分后 ,根据正常类比例N来确定异常数据类别并用于网络连接数据的实时检测。结果表明 ,该方法有效地以较低的系统误警率从网络连接数据中检测出新的入侵行为 ,更降低了对训练数据集的要求。