一种适用于地面防空武器群的整体电子反对抗能力评估方法

应用雷达反电子对抗(ECCM)模糊矩阵、雷达和各类光电定位器材的作战可用度以及电磁环境的模糊分类等手段,提出了一种地面防空武器群整体反电子对抗能力的评估方法。     

反坦克导弹的气动参数辨识

本文运用极大似然法进行激光驾束制导反坦克导弹气动参数的辨识。在辨识的迭代寻优过程中,采用变步长搜索提高辨识准度;在辨识算法的具体计算处理上,采用了模型分解法,大大减少了计算时间,保证了气动参数的辨识精度。同时给出辨识仿真验证结果.     

顾及噪声影响的GNSS高程序列预测Prophet方法

全球导航卫星系统(global navigation satellite system, GNSS)高程时间序列具有非平稳、非线性、含噪声等特点,在深入研究Prophet预测模型的基础上,针对Prophet预测模型对于趋势信号和周期信号有良好预测效果这一特性,提出一种引入经验模态分解(empirical mode decomposition, EMD)的“降噪—分解—预测”组合GNSS高程时间序列预测方法。该方法先将原始时间序列进行EMD降噪,再对降噪后的序列进行分解预测,最后重构各分量预测信号为最终预测序列。通过对实测高程数据进行研究,实验结果表明：降噪后信号的平均信噪比为10.30dB,能量百分比平均为88.75%;利用所构建的短期预测方法,GNSS高程时间序列预测结果的均方根误差分别平均提升26.41%和14.88%;平均百分比误差分别平均提升18.92%和7.91%,验证了组合预测方法的有效性及实用性。     

结合振动特征优选和GWOA-XGBoost的电机轴承故障诊断

为解决电机轴承故障状态难以识别,从而造成诊断精度不高的情况,提出了一种基于信号特征提取与极限梯度提升算法(extreme gradient boosting, XGBoost)结合的电机轴承故障诊断模型。使用优化的变分模态分解获得振动信号的固有模态函数(intrinsic mode function, IMF)分量,再基于多尺度熵理论计算各IMF分量的多尺度熵值进行特征重构。在鲸鱼优化算法(whale optimization algorithm, WOA)中引入遗传算法的选择、交叉、变异操作对WOA进行改进。用改进的WOA算法对XGBoost的超参数进行寻优,获得了帮助XGBoost取得最优分类效果的超参数组合,将7种不同故障类型的振动信号进行重构后输入优化的XGBoost模型进行故障诊断。实验结果表明,所提GWOA-XGBoost模型的电机轴承故障诊断精度能够达到97.14%,相较于传统诊断方法,性能提升效果显著。     

面向癫痫脑电的简化深度学习模型

针对脑电信号随机性强、动态变化迅速等特点,提出了一种简化深度学习模型研究癫痫脑电识别问题。提出的模型以一维卷积神经网络为基础,在结构方面简化了卷积层、池化层等以提高模型效率,在整体框架方面应用了Keras框架,在训练优化算法方面采用RMSProp算法作为模型优化算法,通过预定义的目标函数来进行损失估计,模型设计上加入了批标准化层和全局均值池化层。基于所提模型,从三个方面研究了癫痫脑电识别问题,即:利用经验模态分解,分别选取前三阶、前五阶、前七阶、前八阶的本征模态函数分量,在简化模型上进行对比分析;利用提出模型所具备的深度学习特点,直接识别原始脑电信号而无须特征提取环节;增加了三种不同方法分别提取7类特征,对相同的脑电数据进行对比分析。性能分析结果表明:对于五类不同的脑电信号,前三阶的本征模态函数分量的识别率达到92.1%,比其他几种处理方式识别率高;前八阶的本征模态分量识别率不及原始信号,表明人工数据处理时会给数据带来噪声; 所提出的简化深度学习模型能高效处理癫痫脑电识别问题,具备较高效率和较好性能。     

The Gravity of Arms

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role.     

Energy‐efficient scheduling for sustainable manufacturing systems with renewable energy resources

Environmentally friendly energy resources open a new opportunity to tackle the problem of energy security and climate change arising from wide use of fossil fuels. This paper focuses on optimizing the allocation of the energy generated by the renewable energy system to minimize the total electricity cost for sustainable manufacturing systems under time‐of‐use tariff by clipping the peak demand. A rolling horizon approach is adopted to handle the uncertainty caused by the weather change. A nonlinear mathematical programming model is established for each decision epoch based on the predicted energy generation and the probability distribution of power demand in the manufacturing plant. The objective function of the model is shown to be convex, Lipchitz‐continuous, and subdifferentiable. A generalized benders decomposition method based on the primal‐dual subgradient descent algorithm is proposed to solve the model. A series of numerical experiments is conducted to show the effectiveness of the solution approach and the significant benefits of using the renewable energy resources.     

非均匀湍流场中螺旋桨噪声研究

针对螺旋桨在湍流中的非定常噪声问题,在均匀湍流下螺旋桨宽频噪声相关性法的基础上,推导了非均匀湍流下螺旋桨宽频噪声的公式。在均匀湍流的研究中使用了十桨叶螺旋桨模型,并将计算结果与试验数据进行了对比,发现吻合较好。对于非均匀湍流中的问题,研究发现湍流的不均匀程度不会对宽频谱波峰的位置产生影响,噪声谱波峰的位置仍然取决于叶频,湍流的不均匀程度只会改变叶频处的波峰高度。最后研究了均匀湍流和非均匀湍流中侧斜角对螺旋桨噪声的影响,发现桨叶侧斜角的存在会降低螺旋桨在湍流中受到的宽频噪声。     

Coordination as showcasing: the establishment of Norway’s Afghanistan Forum

In complex operations such as the interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, where multiple government ministries are involved in putting together a state’s contributions, the use of national-level coordination bodies has become more widespread. Research has taken for granted that the rationale behind these bodies reflects their declared aim – enhanced coordination as a means to improve mission effectiveness. However, they appear to have had modest effect on coordination. That notwithstanding, they seem to remain popular. This prompts us to ask why such bodies are actually established. This article – based on in-depth interviews and archival records – critically explores the establishment of Norway’s ad hoc, inter-ministerial, political-level Afghanistan Forum. Distinguishing between a structural-instrumental, a cultural-institutional and an environmental perspective from organizational theory to structure the analysis, this article shows that the declared purpose of the forum, inter-ministerial coordination, proved less important than showcasing coordination efforts and keeping the coalition together. In addition, national traditions in handling coordination challenges in the central government apparatus and powerful international reforms helped bring the forum about. This has implications for research on the rationale and effectiveness of these bodies, and also for understanding their policy relevance.     

一种快速解算火箭助飞鱼雷关机点方法

为解决火箭助飞鱼雷射程与关机点计算速度问题,运用Chebyshev正交多项式拟合曲线,提出了一种基于时间或能量关机的计算方法.可根据不同的射程快速解算助飞雷关机点,达到实时控制助飞雷射程的目的,与现有方法相比,计算简洁、迅速.最后给出了关机方法软件的仿真流程,并将该软件应用于某助飞雷仿真系统,论证了该方法的可行性.