濒海要地防空雷达目标威胁分析与对策

为有效应对未来濒海要地防空作战敌方雷达目标威胁,应按战术任务重点分析警戒引导、武器控制、侦察监视和航行保障等四类目标,准确判断敌雷达可能对我造成的威胁,并从跟踪目标动态、注重预警能力、坚持集优打弱三个方面进行应对。     

基于SCAS的防空反导装备体系作战能力指标设计

指标设计是进行武器装备体系发展论证和作战效能与作战能力评估分析的基础。着眼体系作战效能与作战能力评估分析需求,基于传感器（ Sensor）、控制器（ Controller）、执行器（ Actuator）、支持器（ Supporter）的柔性建模方法,对防空反导装备体系作战能力指标进行了设计,构建了其侦察预警能力、指挥控制能力、拦截打击能力、综合保障能力评估指标体系,并利用结构方程模型（ SEM）对指标之间的影响作用关系进行了分析,可为防空反导装备体系建设与运用提供重要借鉴。     

Single batch machine scheduling with deliveries

We consider the problem of scheduling a set of n jobs on a single batch machine, where several jobs can be processed simultaneously. Each job j has a processing time p_j and a size s_j. All jobs are available for processing at time 0. The batch machine has a capacity D. Several jobs can be batched together and processed simultaneously, provided that the total size of the jobs in the batch does not exceed D. The processing time of a batch is the largest processing time among all jobs in the batch. There is a single vehicle available for delivery of the finished products to the customer, and the vehicle has capacity K. We assume that K = rD, where and r is an integer. The travel time of the vehicle is T; that is, T is the time from the manufacturer to the customer. Our goal is to find a schedule of the jobs and a delivery plan so that the service span is minimized, where the service span is the time that the last job is delivered to the customer. We show that if the jobs have identical sizes, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is minimum. If the jobs have identical processing times, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is asymptotically at most 11/9 times the optimal service span. When the jobs have arbitrary processing times and arbitrary sizes, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is asymptotically at most twice the optimal service span. We also derive upper bounds of the absolute worst‐case ratios in both cases. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 470–482, 2015     

Model parameter estimation and residual life prediction for a partially observable failing system

We consider a partially observable degrading system subject to condition monitoring and random failure. The system's condition is categorized into one of three states: a healthy state, a warning state, and a failure state. Only the failure state is observable. While the system is operational, vector data that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at regular sampling epochs. The state process evolution follows a hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) and Erlang distribution is used for modeling the system's sojourn time in each of its operational states. The Expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the state and observation parameters of the HSMM. Explicit formulas for several important quantities for the system residual life estimation such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived in terms of the posterior probability that the system is in the warning state. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the estimation procedure and failure prediction method. A comparison results with hidden Markov modeling are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 190–205, 2015     

一种基于区间数的地面防空火力配系评估技术

针对已有评估技术存在的不足,提出了一种基于区间数的地面防空火力配系评估技术。给出了影响防空火力配系的评价指标,建立了权重为区间数的地面防空火力配系综合评价模型,给出了评价其优劣的排序方法。最后通过实例分析验证,该技术评估结果准确,能有效减小误差,对指挥员科学决策具有一定的参考价值。     

高技术装备维修知识共享

将知识管理的思想引入到装备维修中,认为装备维修组织与高技术装备生产厂家之间的知识共享是提升高技术装备维修能力的重要因素。通过建立知识共享模型,对装备维修组织与高技术装备生产厂家知识共享过程进行了分析,得出知识总量螺旋上升的结果。在此基础上进行博弈分析,运用数学方法,找出主导高技术装备维修知识共享活动的关键因素,并结合实际,研究应对方法,推动装备维修知识共享,促进装备维修组织知识创新,从而提高装备维修能力。     

地面防空作战部署评估仿真系统设计与实现

地面防空作战部署方案评估是防空作战中非常关键的一环,优良的地面防空作战部署方案是达到合理使用兵力、充分发扬火力、有效抗击空中之敌的重要前提。分析了地面防空作战部署方案评价指标体系,设计了仿真系统功能结构,探讨了仿真系统关键技术,实现了地面防空作战部署方案评估仿真系统,为指战员提供作战辅助决策。     

Single machine just‐in‐time scheduling problems with two competing agents

In scheduling problems with two competing agents, each one of the agents has his own set of jobs to be processed and his own objective function, and both share a common processor. In the single‐machine problem studied in this article, the goal is to find a joint schedule that minimizes the total deviation of the job completion times of the first agent from a common due‐date, subject to an upper bound on the maximum deviation of job completion times of the second agent. The problem is shown to be NP‐hard even for a nonrestrictive due‐date, and a pseudopolynomial dynamic program is introduced and tested numerically. For the case of a restrictive due‐date (a sufficiently small due‐date that may restrict the number of early jobs), a faster pseudopolynomial dynamic program is presented. We also study the multiagent case, which is proved to be strongly NP‐hard. A simple heuristic for this case is introduced, which is tested numerically against a lower bound, obtained by extending the dynamic programming algorithm. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 1–16, 2014     

Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014     

Approximation algorithms for capacitated stochastic inventory systems with setup costs

We develop the first approximation algorithm with worst‐case performance guarantee for capacitated stochastic periodic‐review inventory systems with setup costs. The structure of the optimal control policy for such systems is extremely complicated, and indeed, only some partial characterization is available. Thus, finding provably near‐optimal control policies has been an open challenge. In this article, we construct computationally efficient approximate optimal policies for these systems whose demands can be nonstationary and/or correlated over time, and show that these policies have a worst‐case performance guarantee of 4. We demonstrate through extensive numerical studies that the policies empirically perform well, and they are significantly better than the theoretical worst‐case guarantees. We also extend the analyses and results to the case with batch ordering constraints, where the order size has to be an integer multiple of a base load. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 304–319, 2014