Petri网在防空C~3I系统建模与分析中的应用

针对野战防空系统中的火力分配问题,首先为旅营两级防空系统建立了Ｐｅｔｒｉ网模型,并运用时间Ｐｅｔｒｉ网理论对其进行了时延分析,论述了为野战防空火力分配建立辅助决策系统的重要性。最后利用谓词Ｐｅｔｒｉ网描述了火力分配的推理过程,为有效分析战术决策的正确性提供了依据和思路     

无线自组织网络跨层攻击检测博弈模型

无线自组织网络中的跨层攻击具有比单层攻击更强的隐蔽性、更好的攻击效果或更低的攻击成本.为了检测无线自组织网络中的跨层攻击,提出了一种基于博弈论的攻击检测模型.由于攻击不可避免地会对各协议层的参数造成影响,因此模型从协议层攻防博弈的角度,建立起相应的策略矩阵和支付矩阵,并通过均衡分析得到该模型的混合策略纳什均衡解.仿真结...     

博弈理论在消防行政处罚中的应用

探讨了消防行政处罚不当带来的弊端,建立了公安消防机构与被检查单位的火灾隐患整改博弈模型。首次提出火灾隐患不积极整改的惩罚系数概念,并给出了惩罚系数的计算公式。该公式揭示了惩罚系数与检查概率之间的关系,为公安消防机构制定惩罚系数以及安排警力检查提供了理论依据。     

防空作战风险决策分析

防空作战决策活动具有极强的风险性。以决策者面对风险的态度为突破点,通过建立效用曲线并在最大效用原则下对有关决策问题进行优化,在一定程度上可大大降低决策方案的风险性。同时对于防空体系设计也具有一定的参考价值。     

国防企业的效用函数及激励机制设计

在定性分析国防企业效用的基础上, 考虑装备生产过程的部分可观察性, 利用委托-代理理论, 建立了国防企业综合激励模型, 并对给定情况进行了激励合同设计。     

新型驱护舰编队防空队形配置

根据新型驱护舰编队和现代防空作战的特点,从电子对抗、火力协同、指挥通信和区域掩护四个方面对编队防空队形配置进行研究,提出了编队防空队形配置的基本要求,建立了编队防空队形配置论证的数学模型并进行了仿真,通过对仿真结果的认真分析得出了实用性的结论。     

Using a birth‐and‐death process to estimate the steady‐state distribution of a periodic queue

If the number of customers in a queueing system as a function of time has a proper limiting steady‐state distribution, then that steady‐state distribution can be estimated from system data by fitting a general stationary birth‐and‐death (BD) process model to the data and solving for its steady‐state distribution using the familiar local‐balance steady‐state equation for BD processes, even if the actual process is not a BD process. We show that this indirect way to estimate the steady‐state distribution can be effective for periodic queues, because the fitted birth and death rates often have special structure allowing them to be estimated efficiently by fitting parametric functions with only a few parameters, for example, 2. We focus on the multiserver M_t/GI/s queue with a nonhomogeneous Poisson arrival process having a periodic time‐varying rate function. We establish properties of its steady‐state distribution and fitted BD rates. We also show that the fitted BD rates can be a useful diagnostic tool to see if an M_t/GI/s model is appropriate for a complex queueing system. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 664–685, 2015     

Inventory models with nonlinear shortage costs and stochastic lead times; applications of shape properties of randomly stopped counting processes

In this article, we study generalizations of some of the inventory models with nonlinear costs considered by Rosling in (Oper. Res. 50 (2002) 797–809). In particular, we extend the study of both the periodic review and the compound renewal demand processes from a constant lead time to a random lead time. We find that the quasiconvexity properties of the cost function (and therefore the existence of optimal (s, S) policies), holds true when the lead time has suitable log‐concavity properties. The results are derived by structural properties of renewal delayed processes stopped at an independent random time and by the study of log‐concavity properties of compound distributions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 345–356, 2015     

Integrated scheduling of loading and transportation with tractors and semitrailers separated

Motivated by some practical applications, we study a new integrated loading and transportation scheduling problem. Given a set of jobs, a single crane is available to load jobs, one by one, onto semitrailers with a given capacity. Loaded semitrailers are assigned to tractors for transportation tasks. Subject to limited resources (crane, semitrailers, and tractors), the problem is to determine (1) an assignment of jobs to semitrailers for loading tasks, (2) a sequence for the crane to load jobs onto semitrailers, (3) an assignment of loaded semitrailers to tractors for transportation tasks, and (4) a transportation schedule of assigned tractors such that the completion time of the last transportation task is minimized. We first formulate the problem as a mixed integer linear programming model (MILPM) and prove that the problem is strongly NP‐hard. Then, optimality properties are provided which are useful in establishing an improved MILPM and designing solution algorithms. We develop a constructive heuristic, two LP‐based heuristics, and a recovering beam search heuristic to solve this problem. An improved procedure for solutions by heuristics is also presented. Furthermore, two branch‐and‐bound (B&B) algorithms with two different lower bounds are developed to solve the problem to optimality. Finally, computational experiments using both real data and randomly generated data demonstrate that our heuristics are highly efficient and effective. In terms of computational time and the number of instances solved to optimality in a time limit, the B&B algorithms are better than solving the MILPM. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 416–433, 2015     

Optimal FCFS allocation rules for periodic‐review assemble‐to‐order systems

In Assemble‐To‐Order (ATO) systems, situations may arise in which customer demand must be backlogged due to a shortage of some components, leaving available stock of other components unused. Such unused component stock is called remnant stock. Remnant stock is a consequence of both component ordering decisions and decisions regarding allocation of components to end‐product demand. In this article, we examine periodic‐review ATO systems under linear holding and backlogging costs with a component installation stock policy and a First‐Come‐First‐Served (FCFS) allocation policy. We show that the FCFS allocation policy decouples the problem of optimal component allocation over time into deterministic period‐by‐period optimal component allocation problems. We denote the optimal allocation of components to end‐product demand as multimatching. We solve the multi‐matching problem by an iterative algorithm. In addition, an approximation scheme for the joint replenishment and allocation optimization problem with both upper and lower bounds is proposed. Numerical experiments for base‐stock component replenishment policies show that under optimal base‐stock policies and optimal allocation, remnant stock holding costs must be taken into account. Finally, joint optimization incorporating optimal FCFS component allocation is valuable because it provides a benchmark against which heuristic methods can be compared. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 158–169, 2015