A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation

Earlier research on the effects of nonoverlapping temporal aggregation on demand forecasting showed the benefits associated with such an approach under a stationary AR(1) or MA(1) processes for decision making conducted at the disaggregate level. The first objective of this note is to extend those important results by considering a more general underlying demand process. The second objective is to assess the conditions under which aggregation may be a preferable approach for improving decision making at the aggregate level as well. We confirm the validity of previous results under more general conditions, and we show the increased benefit resulting from forecasting by temporal aggregation at lower frequency time units. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 489–500, 2014     

面向仿真的C4ISR系统领域分析与需求复用研究

面向C4ISR系统需求开发中的仿真支持问题,将复用作为一种的C4ISR系统需求模型的构建方法,可以快速形成一个有效的领域需求模型支持系统仿真验证。本文研究了C4ISR系统需求的领域性与领域需求共性问题,在此基础上研究了C4ISR系统需求工程中的需求框架、需求本体以及需求组件等不同粒度的复用方法,分别对上述三种方法在领域应用中的不同作用进行了对比分析。     

装备保障需求开发方法

为解决装备保障需求开发规范化的问题,界定了装备保障需求的内涵,分析了装备保障需求开发的目标,提出了＂元任务＂的概念,阐述了＂任务确认-能力集成-能力开发＂的装备保障需求开发方法,并通过实例分析验证了方法的有效性,对于规范装备保障需求描述形式和完善装备保障需求开发机制具有一定的参考价值。     

Production‐inventory systems with imperfect advance demand information and updating

We consider a supplier with finite production capacity and stochastic production times. Customers provide advance demand information (ADI) to the supplier by announcing orders ahead of their due dates. However, this information is not perfect, and customers may request an order be fulfilled prior to or later than the expected due date. Customers update the status of their orders, but the time between consecutive updates is random. We formulate the production‐control problem as a continuous‐time Markov decision process and prove there is an optimal state‐dependent base‐stock policy, where the base‐stock levels depend upon the numbers of orders at various stages of update. In addition, we derive results on the sensitivity of the state‐dependent base‐stock levels to the number of orders in each stage of update. In a numerical study, we examine the benefit of ADI, and find that it is most valuable to the supplier when the time between updates is moderate. We also consider the impact of holding and backorder costs, numbers of updates, and the fraction of customers that provide ADI. In addition, we find that while ADI is always beneficial to the supplier, this may not be the case for the customers who provide the ADI. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Optimal control of a capacitated inventory system with multiple demand classes

This article studies the optimal control of a periodic‐review make‐to‐stock system with limited production capacity and multiple demand classes. In this system, a single product is produced to fulfill several classes of demands. The manager has to make the production and inventory allocation decisions. His objective is to minimize the expected total discounted cost. The production decision is made at the beginning of each period and determines the amount of products to be produced. The inventory allocation decision is made after receiving the random demands and determines the amount of demands to be satisfied. A modified base stock policy is shown to be optimal for production, and a multi‐level rationing policy is shown to be optimal for inventory allocation. Then a heuristic algorithm is proposed to approximate the optimal policy. The numerical studies show that the heuristic algorithm is very effective. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 58: 43–58, 2011     

Inventory control in divergent supply chains with time‐based dispatching and shipment consolidation

This article analyses a divergent supply chain consisting of a central warehouse and N nonidentical retailers. The focus is on joint evaluation of inventory replenishment and shipment consolidation effects. A time‐based dispatching and shipment consolidation policy is used at the warehouse in conjunction with real‐time point‐of‐sale data and centralized inventory information. This represents a common situation, for example, in various types of vendor managed inventory systems. The main contribution is the derivation of an exact recursive procedure for determining the expected inventory holding and backorder costs for the system, under the assumption of Poisson demand. Two heuristics for determining near optimal shipment intervals are also presented. The results are applicable both for single‐item and multiitem systems. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 58: 59–71, 2011     

Vertically restrictive pricing in supply chains with price‐dependent demand

We examine the behavior of a manufacturer and a retailer in a decentralized supply chain under price‐dependent, stochastic demand. We model a retail fixed markup (RFM) policy, which can arise as a form of vertically restrictive pricing in a supply chain, and we examine its effect on supply chain performance. We prove the existence of the optimal pricing and replenishment policies when demand has a linear additive form and the distribution of the uncertainty component has a nondecreasing failure rate. We numerically compare the relative performance of RFM to a price‐only contract and we find that RFM results in greater profit for the supply chain than the price‐only contract in a variety of scenarios. We find that RFM can lead to Pareto‐improving solutions where both the supplier and the retailer earn more profit than under a price‐only contract. Finally, we compare RFM to a buyback contract and explore the implications of allowing the fixed markup parameter to be endogenous to the model. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006.     

应急航材配送网络需求缓冲策略设计

航空装备是空军武器装备的主体,做好航材保障工作对于充分发挥装备作战效能,确保装备的作战使用具有重要意义。描述了应急需求冲击条件下缓冲控制问题,建立了应急航材配送网络影响缓存因素模型,进而建立了完整的应急航材需求冲击的缓冲策略设计框架,并进行了应急航材缓存分配建模。分别采用BP-GA方法对应急航材需求进行测算;保噪正态分布进行了缓冲策略公式的推演,需求冲能模型进行了单个缓存分配,并结合算例说明了其有效性。     

同类防空武器多层防御部署分析

在现代防空中,经常是防空武器多层部署进行防空,故需要对防空武器多层防御部署进行分析.针对同类防空武器多层防御部署的问题,运用排队论,建立了防御体系射击效能的数学模型.按照模型,通过实验仿真,对计算得到的实验数据进行分析,推测出同类防空武器的部署规律,并对防御体系应部署的适宜层数进行了一定的讨论.通过理论推导,证明了部署规律的正确性.最后建立了需求分析模型,运用部署规律对模型进行求解,通过对实例进行计算,给出了求解的基本步骤.     

The impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect

An important phenomenon often observed in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, implies that demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain, i.e., as one moves away from customer demand. In this paper we quantify this effect for simple, two‐stage, supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. We demonstrate that the use of an exponential smoothing forecast by the retailer can cause the bullwhip effect and contrast these results with the increase in variability due to the use of a moving average forecast. We consider two types of demand processes, a correlated demand process and a demand process with a linear trend. We then discuss several important managerial insights that can be drawn from this research. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 269–286, 2000