Land power in the age of joint interdependence: toward a theory of land power for the twenty-first century*

This essay outlines a theory of land power. After explaining the absence of such a theory, the article establishes the modern context for such a theory, specifically within the concept of joint interdependence. The analysis defines key terms and premises behind the theory, to include a definition of land power. The argument then outlines the national elements of power that contribute to a theory of land power. The analysis next applies the theory to the fundamental purposes of military power: defeat, deter, compel, assure, shape and support to the nation. The analysis then tests key definitions, supporting premises, and utility of the theory. The essay argues that historical experience validates the applicability and utility of the theory, and offers a solid basis for extrapolating the validity of the theory into the near future.     

Military autonomy: its origins,limits, and the politico-military dialectic of war

Military officers often oppose political interference in the conduct of war. Political leaders respond by citing Clausewitz’s contention that “war is the continuation of politics with the addition of other means.” Scholarship in security studies and civil-military relations argues that civilians are right to oppose military autonomy because it serves the parochial interests of the military. However, through the dialectical relationship between the violent essence of war and its political nature, Clausewitz provides an alternative explanation for military demands for autonomy. He shows that military and political leaders are prone to an incomplete understanding of war that can undermine strategy and policy.     

线性模型的海基制导系统误差分离方法性能分析

利用传统制导工具系统误差线性回归模型,对Bayes估计、主成分分析以及正则化分析三种改进的分离方法进行了比较,分析了它们在工程应用上的优缺点,给出了实际应用时的限制因素;同时结合海基导弹特有的初始状态误差,设计了整体估计、分段估计以及迭代估计三种估计策略,给出了相应的分离步骤。仿真结果表明,文中给出的三种误差分离方法在不同的评价标准下具有不同的实际应用意义;而在弹道差评价标准以及方差评价标准下,分段估计和迭代估计策略下的误差分离结果要明显好于传统整体估计结果。     

三架固定翼无人机协同编队飞行避障策略

针对无人机编队执行空战任务过程中存在无人机之间以及无人机与障碍物发生碰撞的问题,提出单向网络连接结构的多无人机避障算法和基于人工势场的控制方法,同时应用于无人机编队避障控制。以三架无人机构成的正三角形编队作为控制体,同时以长机的运动轨迹作为期望路径,长机提供僚机飞行信息,僚机接受信息保持编队飞行。多无人机编队发现障碍物到避障完成的过程包括编队集结、松散队形、最终恢复集结正三角形编队。仿真实验结果表明,所提避障控制策略能够确保编队收敛于期望的队形和稳定飞行状态。     

Stochastic production capacity: A bane or a boon for quick response supply chains?

The quick response (QR) system that can cope with demand volatility by shortening lead time has been well studied in the literature. Much of the existing literature assumes implicitly or explicitly that the manufacturers under QR can always meet the demand because the production capacity is always sufficient. However, when the order comes with a short lead time under QR, availability of the manufacturer's production capacity is not guaranteed. This motivates us to explore QR in supply chains with stochastic production capacity. Specifically, we study QR in a two-echelon supply chain with Bayesian demand information updating. We consider the situation where the manufacturer's production capacity under QR is uncertain. We first explore how stochastic production capacity affects supply chain decisions and QR implementation. We then incorporate the manufacturer's ability to expand capacity into the model. We explore how the manufacturer determines the optimal capacity expansion decision, and the value of such an ability to the supply chain and its agents. Finally, we extend the model to the two-stage two-ordering case and derive the optimal ordering policy by dynamic programming. We compare the single-ordering and two-ordering cases to generate additional managerial insights about how ordering flexibility affects QR when production capacity is stochastic. We also explore the transparent supply chain and find that our main results still hold.     

典型航天装备试验鉴定总体策略研究

航天装备具有面向任务、科研性强、全系统的技术状态难以固定,以及小子样等特点,在全寿命周期内的试验策略与常规武器装备的差异很大。本文在介绍装备试验鉴定模式改革的基础上,分析了航天装备试验鉴定按照新模式进行的相应调整,重点给出了卫星系统、运载火箭和航天测控装备等典型航天装备的全寿命周期模型,设计了新体制下全寿命周期内的试验阶段和关键时间节点、主要试验类型、决策支持依据、试验方式方法,以及与原试验要求的继承关系等总体策略;同时,鉴于航天装备试验鉴定数据量小等特殊性,给出了有别于常规装备的数据采信原则。该试验鉴定总体策略和数据采信原则可为航天装备试验鉴定顶层设计、组织实施、数据分析和决策支持提供参考。     

基于经济绩效的国防工业市场最优集中度研究

以满足企业利润最大化和社会福利最大化双重效率标准的思想为基础,通过拟合我国国防支出需求函数和国防工业企业的成本函数,对我国国防工业市场最优集中度进行了理论研究,得出最优企业数量的一般表达式,并以我国航空工业上市公司为例,对其市场集中度展开了系统性估算。研究结果表明,我国国防工业产业的最优企业数量可以根据相关数据与拟合出的参数得到一个明确的数值,并且我国国防工业产业的最优市场集中度表现为适度集中,而在特殊情况下表现为完全集中。我国航空工业上市公司的最优企业数量为14家时,能够满足企业利润最大化与市场出清的双重标准,市场集中度达到最优。     

Beyond balancing? Intrastate conflict and US grand strategy

Grand strategic theorists share an historical emphasis on interstate conflict, yet in contrast to the more frequent intrastate conflicts, these represent only 7 of the some 273 US military deployments since 1900. We argue that these intrastate conflicts limit the utility of regional balances of power in mitigating forms of conflict that the US may consider inimical to its national security interests. When considering potential changes to US force posture and grand strategy, American coercive statecraft should be theorised along a broader strategic continuum encompassing the full range of conflict.     

新形势下以需求为导向的装备保障能力建设

分析了军事智能技术的由来与发展现状,探讨了目前世界军事智能技术的应用领域。重点阐述军事智能技术对中国军事实力提高的重要意义、如何加快军事智能技术发展的几个问题,为中国军队未来智能化发展和应用提出建设性的思考。     

From the sea to outer space: The command of space as the foundation of spacepower theory

Colin Gray once lamented the absence of a ‘Mahan for the final frontier’ and spacepower theory in strategic studies. This article proposes the command of space as the fundamental concept of spacepower theory, and that Mahan himself has much to offer in the endeavour of spacepower theory-making than has hitherto been realised. The theory is advanced by tempering versions of the ‘command of space’, stressing its educational intent, and explaining the nuanced sub-concepts of space control and denial through understanding some precedents set by seapower theory. In the process, aspects of Mahanian and Corbettian seapower theory are unified.