装备项目型供应链风险控制策略

项目型供应链管理模式能有效实现装备研制过程中行为主体间的优势互补和资源的优化配置,利于供应链整体效益的提高,但各种不确定性因素会导致主体间风险传递行为的发生。为提供风险控制有效对策,通过考虑节点位置重要度和属性重要度,构建了项目型供应链节点重要度评估模型;通过衡量行为主体风险识别和风险控制的努力程度,给出了行为主体抗风险努力程度的评价方法,最后提出了一种基于节点重要度和抗风险努力程度的项目型供应链利益分配策略,该策略能有效促使行为主体主动进行风险识别和风险控制,是一种"风险共担、利益共享"的项目型供应链合作博弈策略。     

震灾应急物资动态需求预测模型研究

为提高应急物资需求预测方法的实用性,同时考虑提前期和需求的不确定性,采用安全库存理论构建震灾应急物资动态需求预测模型,以观测得到的实际到货量、实际消耗量和实时剩余库存量等信息来动态预测当前时刻应急物资的需求量。应用算例表明,所建模型不仅能够准确反映需求量与被保障人员总数的正相关关系,而且还能实时体现被保障人员总数的变化情况。因此,该模型能够为震灾过程中应急物资需求量的确定提供科学决策依据,具有一定的实用价值和应用前景。     

高空长航时太阳能飞机研究进展与技术挑战

高空长航时太阳能飞机是当前的前沿热点方向,可实现月量级的长期驻空,并形成“时间持久+区域保持”的新型应用能力。系统总结了高空长航时太阳能飞机三阶段发展历程,包括初期探索阶段、快速发展阶段、实用能力验证与应用示范阶段,重点阐述国外典型发展计划,深入分析气动布局设计、储能电池、高空推进、大尺度结构、飞行控制等面临的主要技术挑战,并提出重点攻关方向建议,为高空长航时太阳能飞机创新发展提供参考。     

现代技术生存危机下发展低碳经济的必要性分析

人类发展历程先后经历了自然生存和技术生存两个阶段,与人类相伴而生的技术经由古代的手工技术、近代的机器技术,演变成与科学结合、高度发达的现代技术,成为人类卓有成效的生存工具。但现代技术引发的生态与人性危机,促使人类寻求全新的生存方式——新技术生存。作为新技术生存典型代表的低碳经济,既维持生存的高效率,又无碍于人与自然的和谐发展。走可持续发展之路,发展低碳经济,对于克服现代技术危机、实现健康和谐的新技术生存,是非常必要的。     

增强现实诱导维修在外军的发展现状和趋势

随着战场环境逐步复杂化和武器装备日益信息化,军用装备维修难度不断增加。针对这一难题,介绍了以增强现实为基础发展起来的增强现实诱导维修技术。分析增强现实诱导维修的基本概念及系统基本构成的同时得出其在未来军事活动中的优势所在。通过介绍国外增强现实诱导维修的发展历程和在军事领域的应用,进一步展望了其在军事领域的发展趋势,对装备维修具有一定的指导意义。     

Witchcraft and African development

Impressive investment and growth figures and commercial write-ups enthusing about ‘Africa rising up’, ‘the continent of the future’, and so on, obscure the poverty, illiteracy, poor health and other hardships afflicting the vast majority of African people. Why has massive so-called development and technical ‘aid’ not created the expected dynamic, autonomous economic progress? A blind eye is delicately being turned to the decisive role of people – more specifically, the cultural element. Notwithstanding good intentions, outsiders seeking to promote development assume that black Africans think and act like they only need more education, training and finance in order to ‘catch up’. Outsiders easily forget that since time immemorial, Africans have developed and cherished worldviews and cultures of their own. While these are by no means immutable and do adapt to changing needs and outside influences, Africans refuse to cast off overnight the heritage that makes them the people they are. This paper examines the impact of witchcraft as an integral feature of traditional culture on African existence, notably community life, religion, politics, the law, and economic practice. It stresses the significance of traditional society's powerful egalitarian impulses as well as its profound conviction that all things – goods, wealth, well-being and life force – are in a strictly limited supply that cannot be increased, but can only be redistributed by force or through magical manipulation. While modern life gradually weakens the influence of witchcraft beliefs – in Europe these flourished well into the 18th century – the exasperation associated with Africa's headlong urbanisation actually bolsters these beliefs.     

装备作战试验关键问题研究

装备建设服务于国家军事战略,能否将管用、好用的装备交付给军方,是国防工业部门和装备试验靶场共同的使命。除了要确保装备技术性能符合指标要求以外,还要确保交付给军方的装备能够适应不同的作战环境,并且能够在作战行动中发挥应有的作用。因此,作战试验是值得研究并且需要逐步开展的重要试验活动。文章将从国外在装备作战试验领域的具体做法入手,分析作战试验与研制试验的区别。在此基础上,对开展装备作战试验须重点把握的问题进行探讨,为开展装备作战试验提供理论支撑。     

微信:网络舆论战的新利器

微信以惊人的速度发展,成为时下最热门的社交信息平台和绝大多数手机用户的一种生活方式。微信是舆论生成和扩散的重要平台,其多元化的信息、多渠道的传播以及创新的特点,为网络舆论战带来了全新的机遇。把握微信的信息传播特点,有效针对特定对象人群,采取积极主动的方式开展网络舆论宣传与自我防御,使微信成为舆论战发展的有力工具,是新时期开展网络舆论战的必然选择。     

日本防卫产业发展潜力问题分析

日本自卫队追求能力提升和活动范围扩大的努力受到其防卫产业发展的局限。防卫预算的有限直接导致防卫产业的市场规模狭小。部分核心技术自主研发的缺失限制了防卫产业独立发展的能力。融合式发展模式在成本核算、劳动生产率提升和产业发展稳定性等方面限制了防卫产业发展的潜力。     

A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation

Earlier research on the effects of nonoverlapping temporal aggregation on demand forecasting showed the benefits associated with such an approach under a stationary AR(1) or MA(1) processes for decision making conducted at the disaggregate level. The first objective of this note is to extend those important results by considering a more general underlying demand process. The second objective is to assess the conditions under which aggregation may be a preferable approach for improving decision making at the aggregate level as well. We confirm the validity of previous results under more general conditions, and we show the increased benefit resulting from forecasting by temporal aggregation at lower frequency time units. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 489–500, 2014