基于并行工程的装备作战需求论证方法

提出了一种基于并行工程的系统化、规范化的装备作战需求论证方法.论述了该方法的特点及理论框架,详细研究了装备作战需求分析中模糊质量功能配置的构建,以及基于并行工程的装备作战需求论证的全过程.最后结合实例,说明了模糊质量功能配置模型的正确性以及论证方法的可行性.     

消防技术装备的发展与展望

分析国际与国内消防技术装备的发展历程,从中寻找规律性的内涵;展望我国消防技术装备发展的趋势,指导消防装备建设规划.     

提高党委领导院校转型发展能力

深入学习贯彻习主席视察武警部队时的重要指示,加快推进武警院校转型发展,培养高素质新型军事人才,必须提高党委把关定向能力,确保院校转型发展的正确方向;必须提高抓人才队伍建设能力,为转型发展提供强有力的人才支撑;必须提高创新发展解决难题的能力,营造转型发展的良好环境。     

Thirty Years of Conflict and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Synthetic Control Approach

Abstract

This study seeks to estimate the causal effects of PKK separatist terrorism on economic development in Turkey using the synthetic control method. By creating a synthetic control group that reproduces the Turkish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) before PKK terrorism emerged in the late 1980s, we compare the GDP of the synthetic Turkey and the actual for the period 1955–2008. Our study finds that the Turkish per capita GDP would have been higher by about $2600 had it not been exposed to terrorism. This translates into an average of 21.4% higher per capita GDP over a period of 21 years.     

DAR ES SALAAM

Countries in transition often experience increased levels of crime, making their citizens vulnerable to the exploits of criminals. The lack of reliable statistics hampers the development of sound crime reduction strategies. This essay considers the value of victim surveys as additional sources of information to augment official police data. It presents the findings of such a survey undertaken in Dar es Salaam and compares them with findings obtained in similar surveys of Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria and Johannesburg. The information obtained in the survey conducted in Dar es Salaam provides valuable insights into crime rates and patterns. In comparing the results of the survey in Dar es Salaam, some interesting trends emerged around the theft of vehicle parts and vehicle theft, violent crimes, the levels of violence employed in burglaries and the use of weapons. The information gleaned from these surveys will go far in developing crime reduction strategies and measures that will be effective and appropriately targeted.     

AID,GLENEAGLES AND THE RUN-UP TO THE MILLENNIUM +5 SUMMIT

Africa has emerged as a strategic location for transcontinental narcotics trade. Particularly the West African subcontinent has turned into a cocaine warehousing and trans-shipment hub along the way to the European underground markets. At this juncture, African drug networks (ADNs) began to play a momentous role in global drug trade, and pose a considerable threat to international security, as they operate in more than 80 countries. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Interpol, and Europol perceive ADNs as one of the primary issues in international counter-narcotics policy. These agencies have launched several multilateral initiatives to contain the West African threat. None of these initiatives, however, retarded the expansion of the problem. Indeed, the containment efforts turned out to be quite embryonic. The ADNs eventually entered the Turkish market by the early 2000s. West African drug networks (WADNs) in particular have begun to operate within Turkey extensively, often supplying and distributing drugs. The gravity of the threat became ever more serious by 2012. The upsurge of the new threat has compelled the Turkish drug-law enforcement agencies to adopt new policies and counter-strategies. These policies have to be based upon proper strategic analysis of the threat. This paper seeks to address the need for a threat assessment of ADNs. It investigates the dimensions of the problem, profiles the members of WADNs, their modes of operation, and the factors that compelled them to exploit the illicit Turkish drug markets. The analyses are based upon the scrutiny of 227 narcotic interdictions files and statements from the African individuals in these case files. The paper concludes by presenting policy implications and recommendations for the Turkish security and foreign-policy institutions to cope with this impending threat.     

SECURITY BRIEF

Using crime review figures for four randomly selected states in Nigeria, this study examines cases of kidnapping and its implications for the national economy. The findings reveal that kidnapping is consistently on the increase in Nigeria and is not evenly spread across regions. It is shown that 15 cases were recorded in 2005 and 43 cases in 2008. In 2009, 138 cases were officially recorded, of which 22% and 76% occurred in Rivers and Edo states respectively. Findings further showed that modern kidnapping in Nigeria is triggered by resource control disputes directed both at oil expatriate workers and at prominent citizens, politicians and members of their families. The crisis, which came to the fore in 2005, has forced oil production shutdowns of up to 800 000 barrels per day. The study concludes that kidnapping is becoming a serious crime in Nigeria with significant negative implications for foreign investment, national foreign exchange earnings, and revenue generation.     

从X-47B看美国无人作战飞机发展

无人作战飞机代表了航空装备无人化发展的方向.美国X-47B无人作战飞机已经完成了航母上自主弹射起飞和拦阻着舰,标志着美军海空作战模式将发生革命性的改变.这是人类的一小步,但对于无人系统来说却是技术发展的一大步.文章以X-47B为例,回顾了美军无人作战飞机的发展历程,分析了美军对无人作战飞机的概念和认识的变化,以及无人作战飞机对未来空中作战的影响,总结了值得借鉴的经验和教训.     

提高教学质量 加速人才培养

武警学院担负着为全国公安现役部队培养人才的重任.要加速人才的培养,就要全面落实科学发展观,遵循院校办学规律,以素质教育为着力点,正确处理各方面的关系,即坚持政治建校;强化师资力量;提高教学质量;突出办学特色;推进自主创新;迎评促建,评建结合;加快发展步伐;创建"和谐校园".只有这样,才能为部队培养出大批合格人才.     

发展学生个性要重视有针对性的个别教育

大学学习阶段是大学生世界观形成的阶段,也是个性品质形成及巩固阶段.通过分析学生在不同学习阶段的个性差异,提出要使"全体"学生在知识、能力、素质三方面获得"全面协调"发展的同时,更强调学生的个性应获得生动活泼的发展.在课程教学中,应重视有针对性的个别教育工作,满足学生个性发展的要求.并给出了解学生个性差异的方法和个别教育的艺术.