CIVIL SOCIETY AND VIOLENCE—HOW TO MANAGE IN THE TOWNSHIPS WITHOUT THE ARMY

This article discusses the validity of national security threats in Botswana and whether they justified the creation of the Directorate of Intelligence and Security Services (DISS), which has been controversial since its formation. Since its inception in 2008, the DISS has been accused of many human rights violations and politicisation. Without fully deliberating on the basis for its creation, some discourses have focused on the politicised operations without relation to what the DISS is supposed to be doing. The author works under the assumption that debates should be shaped by whether it was necessary to create the DISS, and, if so, how we can shape and steer debates on its oversight, management, reform and operations. This article argues that despite the politicisation of the DISS, Botswana's national security threats are both real and imagined; and that domestic threats to national security have moved from the conceptual ‘imagined’ category to the ‘real’. However, that in itself did not warrant the design and mandate of the DISS, and the article argues that it was external threats that really warranted the creation of a civilian intelligence agency. The article concludes that Botswana faces a plethora of external security threats – traditional and non-traditional – that warranted the creation and continuance of the DISS.     

基于PXI总线的虚拟校准设备研究

基于PXI总线技术,对某型导弹内场测试仪的校准设备进行了集成化、小型化研究,依靠计算机强大的计算储存显示等功能,实现了设备操作界面的虚拟化及智能化．最后,对在LabVIEW平台上开发的测量校准软件进行了实验验证,达到了界面友好、操作简单、测量精度高、工作效率高等要求．     

塔架摆杆系统静动态特性研究

为研究航天发射塔架摆杆系统的静动态特性,利用Pro／E建立其三维实体模型,再将模型导入Abaqus中建立其有限元模型并对该塔架摆杆系统进行静、动态分析计算．通过静态分析,得到塔架关键部位的应力及位移值,对其安全性进行了校核;通过动态分析得到其固有频率及振型,与试验所得频率进行对比,验证有限元建模的正确性．     

单小批量武器装备保障的质量屋模型研究

摘要：针对单小批量武器装备保障的特殊需求,对传统的质量屋模型进行了改进,建立了基于装备保障需求与保障规则的质量屋模型,利用整数规划技术进行求解,使得单小批量武器的装备保障规则按照实际保障需求重新排列优先次序,并通过对某型火炮保障方案的筛选验证了模型的正确性．新的质量屋模型发展完善了质量屋的理论与方法,有助于提高单小批量武器的装备保障能力．     

基于CREAM的后方仓库叉车装卸运输弹药HRA评估

针对我军后方仓库弹药装卸运输环节对人员叉车操作的安全性需求,设计出了叉车操作测试场地路线,归纳总结了人员操作叉车进行弹药装卸运输环节中的安全失效形式及失效原因,构建了HRA评估数学模型．选取我军某后方仓库搬运机械建制班人员为对象,进行了实地测试,得到了弹药装卸运输环节的人为失误概率．测试结果表明,基于CREAM方法能够较好地解决后方仓库弹药装卸运输环节人为失误概率的量化问题．     

快速部署机场指挥决策关键技术

针对快速部署机场指挥决策问题,分析了美军指挥决策技术发展现状,重点研究了快速部署机场指挥决策需要的态势感知、决策模型设计与优化、知识表示与存储、案例推理、综合业务信息查询、任务流程规划、模拟推演与效能评估、行动监视与动态干预、软硬件系统综合集成等9项关键技术及其相互之间的关系,指出任务规划是指挥决策过程的核心任务。最后分析了模型设计、案例推理、推演评估、3S技术等四个方面存在的主要技术应用难点。     

基于仿真实验的弹道导弹阵地优选

合理部署弹道导弹位置对于提高作战效能具有至关重要的作用。基于解析计算的优化方法难以反映环境因素、武器装备的技术和动力特性等不确定性因素对部署位置的影响,求得的结果存在置信度低的问题。故将解析法与仿真实验相结合,以体系对抗条件下弹道导弹作战效能评估的数学模型为基础,建立了由各种作战实体和行动的模型聚合而成的弹道导弹攻防对抗仿真模型,然后通过仿真实验找出最优部署位置,最后给出了应用示例。实验表明该方法具有速度快、效率高、结果清晰直观的特点,可为指挥员提供科学、快速的决策支持。     

信息化条件下鱼雷相关战术技术能力研究

针对信息化海战的特点和对鱼雷的要求,提出了在信息化海战条件下鱼雷应该具备的一些战术和技术能力,如在网络体系中及时可靠获取信息的能力、更强的对抗能力、先进的导航定位能力、远程的水声通信能力等,并对鱼雷航程和航速之间的关系重新进行了分析,以期为新型鱼雷的研制和开发提供一定的参考。     

How Probable is Cyber War? Bringing IR Theory Back In to the Cyber Conflict Debate

Many well-established explanations for war suggest that cyber weapons have a greater chance of being used offensively than other kinds of military technologies. This response article introduces a research agenda for the study of cyber war, and offers an example – principal-agent problems in cyber operations – to demonstrate how rigorous theoretical and empirical work may proceed.     

Just How Important Are ‘Hearts and Minds’ Anyway? Counterinsurgency Goes to the Polls

Despite all the talk of ‘hearts and minds’ being the key to counterinsurgency, local public opinion is rarely studied and when it is, it often yields surprising conclusions. Through analyzing polling data from Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, this article shows that public opinion is less malleable, more of an effect rather than a cause of tactical success, and a poor predictor of strategic victory. As a result, modern counterinsurgency doctrine’s focus on winning popular support may need to be rethought.