空天防御作战规划问题研究

从技术与作战结合的角度,系统分析空天防御作战系统和对抗特点等问题,构建了"态势组态—目标排序—目标分配—冲突动态最优预测"新型作战规划方法,提出"博弈控制理论与方法",论述了空天防御作战规划方法论。对空天防御作战规划理论研究有一定参考价值,为发展空天防御作战规划系统提供了研究思路和技术支撑。     

The timing of third-party intervention in social conflict

This paper analyzes how the equilibrium outcome of social conflict between factions is strategically altered by third-party intervention. We consider an intervening third party that commits financial support to one of two contending factions for reducing its cost in conflict. Within the framework of three-player sequential-move games, we investigate the questions as follows. What is the optimal intervention intensity in terms of the third party’s financial support? Is there a first-mover advantage in conflict when there is third-party intervention? Fighting against all odds, will the unsupported faction have a chance to prevail when its opponent receives third-party support? What is the optimal timing of third-party intervention? The analysis in the paper has implications for the conditions under which the strategic intervention of a third party may or may not break a conflict between factions.     

Rendezvous search on labeled networks

Two players are independently placed on a commonly labelled network X. They cannot see each other but wish to meet in least expected time. We consider continuous and discrete versions, in which they may move at unit speed or between adjacent distinct nodes, respectively. There are two versions of the problem (asymmetric or symmetric), depending on whether or not we allow the players to use different strategies. After obtaining some optimality conditions for general networks, we specialize to the interval and circle networks. In the first setting, we extend the work of J. V. Howard; in the second we prove a conjecture concerning the optimal symmetric strategy. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 256–274, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10011     

一类二阶微分方程Poincaré分岔极限环的不存在性

讨论一类二阶微分方程x¨+εf(x,x.)x.+g(x)=0的Poincar分岔极限环的不存在性,利用一阶Mel’nikov函数直接从整体上进行分析讨论,得出了若干充分条件和判别准则。     

军事欺骗战法分析的数学方法-应用

针对军事欺骗战法定量分析困难的问题,采用基于贝叶斯统计推断和博弈均衡分析的数学方法,在理论上为解决此难题提供了一种可行的方法。该方法首先定义基本概率矩阵,然后根据贝叶斯原理为交战双方构造用于统计推断的主观概率矩阵,并在由两个主观概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链与实施军事欺骗机会之间建立对应关系,再将此关系推广到基本概率矩阵,即是否存在实施军事欺骗的机会将由基本概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链决定。对理论成果的初步应用表明：通过分析由战场情报信息构成的基本概率矩阵的偏序链,可以科学地运用军事欺骗和反军事欺骗战法。     

空降兵师(团)登岛作战兵力分配模型

通过结合空降兵师(团)级登岛作战的战术特点,确立了遮断点的单点和联合价值的指标体系,建立了以联盟博弈为基础的兵力分配初步模型,然后以Shapley值作为此联盟博弈的解,结合投放过程中的兵力损耗,得到一个合理的兵力分配方案,从而建立了师(团)级空降登岛作战的兵力分配模型和算法.     

基于成品油有限竞争市场的军油筹措战略研究

对国家成品油市场进行分析,认为目前国内成品油市场是典型的双寡头垄断有限竞争市场。通过对成品油市场主体厂商行为博弈的讨论,得出产量博弈的状况近期不会出现,价格博弈将使企业走入囚徒困境的结论。根据分析针对性地提出军油筹措战略,为相关决策提供参考。     

塔康信标扩展数据广播抗噪声性能分析

为扩展塔康信标数据广播功能,保持同导航功能的兼容性,分析了信标信号格式和系统要求,提出了基于OOK、PPM、DPSK的数据广播方法,将数据信号插在基准群之后播发。研究了高斯白噪声对3种数据广播信号的影响,分别推导出3种数据广播系统误码率公式。仿真结果表明:抗噪声性能从好到坏依次为OOK信号、DPSK信号、PPM信号;信噪比大于15 d B时,DPSK同PPM误码率基本相同,均小于6×10-5。同时,由于PPM方法数据广播速率高于OOK,实现复杂度低于DPSK,具有较好的综合性能。     

游戏：走向教学对话的本真

教学对话是教师、学生与文本之间实现的智识共享、双向理解和意义创生,达成多重视界的融合。教学中教师的独白、预设的问答以及片面的对话向我们展现的是遮蔽的教学对话。游戏与教学对话有着某种契合,游戏与教学对话的相融,教师、学生和文本之间达成智识共享、共同在场、意义的创生、全面的对话直至多重的视界相融,使教学对话真正走向本真之境。     

海军兵棋演习系统研究

兵棋演习系统是我军未来开展模拟训练的重要手段,针对国内外对兵棋推演系统现状及技术发展趋势进行研究,提出海军兵棋演习系统的发展方向和设计方法,并结合海军兵棋推演的研究内容重点,给出作战规则建模、指挥关系建模等主要关键技术的解决方法,为我国海军未来兵棋推演系统设计、研究和发展提供技术支撑。