The art of meddling: a theoretical,strategic and historical analysis of non-official covers for clandestine Humint

The building of reliable covers has always been of the utmost importance for clandestine Humint. Using both primary and secondary sources, this study seeks to examine how classical authors and modern scholars have dealt with this topic, and which kind of covers have been the most used throughout history in different sociopolitical contexts, and what are the new perspectives for today’s challenges. Findings suggest that a careful reading of the political milieu in which intelligence officers are required to work, and a certain degree of creativity, are the essential premises for the construction of a plausible cover; that some apparently outdated disguises such as merchants, itinerant monks and philosophers should be understood more broadly today to include business people, humanitarian NGOs and academics; that undercover practices have been theoretically and historically recognized as necessary and convenient by a great number of societies, often with scant regard for ethical considerations.     

An exact network flow formulation for cell‐based evacuation in urban areas

In the literature two common macroscopic evacuation planning approaches exist: The dynamic network flow approach and the Cell–Transmission–Based approach. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. Many efficient solution approaches for the dynamic network flow approach exist so that realistic problem instances can be considered. However, the consideration of (more) realistic aspects (eg, density dependent travel times) results in non‐linear model formulations. The Cell‐Transmission‐Based approach on the other hand considers realistic traffic phenomena like shock waves and traffic congestion, but this approach leads to long computational times for realistic problem instances. In this article, we combine the advantages of both approaches: We consider a Cell‐Transmission‐Based Evacuation Planning Model (CTEPM) and present a network flow formulation that is equivalent to the cell‐based model. Thus, the computational costs of the CTEPM are enormously reduced due to the reformulation and the detailed representation of the traffic flow dynamics is maintained. We investigate the impacts of various evacuation scenario parameters on the evacuation performance and on the computational times in a computational study including 90 realistic instances.     

From Nationalism to Factionalism: Faultlines in the Naga Insurgency

Do ceasefires or peace talks create fragmentation in the insurgent groups? Rather than proposing claims that can offer predictions about armed groups behaviour under ceasefires or peace processes, the analysts tend to focus largely on the dynamics between state and non-state actor. The experts pay little attention to overtime changes in social and local political context which might contribute to propelling a rebel group towards fragmentation and factionalism. The present study intends to fill this gap by exploring the shifting role of public opinion and ethnic support for the peace talks to ascertain whether it can increase the likelihood of factionalism in rebel groups or not. This article applies this approach to the case of Naga National Movement (1947–2015) in India, and finds that the proposed variable appears to have increased the frequency of factionalism in the movement.     

评估飞控系统的风洞虚拟飞行试验系统与关键技术

为向开展具体的风洞虚拟飞行试验技术提供引导,针对应用于飞控系统评估的风洞虚拟飞行试验系统及关键技术进行了分析。基于传统意义上的飞控系统评估方法的不足,分析风洞虚拟飞行试验应用于飞控系统评估的优势;按飞控系统常用的姿态控制回路及制导控制回路的组成形式,介绍风洞虚拟飞行试验系统方案与工作原理,详细分析它与半实物仿真系统的差异;分析风洞虚拟飞行试验应用于飞控系统评估需解决的关键技术问题,包括风洞虚拟飞行试验评估方法、飞行器模型设计技术、飞控系统改进技术及模型支撑技术。     

基于警报关联的威胁行为检测技术综述

基于警报关联的网络威胁行为检测技术因其与网络上大量部署的安全产品耦合,且能充分挖掘异常事件之间的关联关系以提供场景还原证据,正成为复杂威胁行为检测的研究热点。从威胁行为和网络安全环境的特点出发,引出威胁行为检测的应用需求和分类,介绍基于警报关联的威胁行为检测的基本概念和系统模型;重点论述作为模型核心的警报关联方法,并分类介绍了各类典型算法的基本原理和特点,包括基于因果逻辑的方法、基于场景的方法、基于相似性的方法和基于数据挖掘的方法;并结合实例介绍了威胁行为检测系统的三种典型结构,即集中式结构、层次式结构和分布式结构;基于当前研究现状,提出了对未来研究趋势的一些认识。     

基于小弹性模量法的空间飞网构型优化设计

飞网构型设计对提高空间飞网系统的展开抓捕性能具有重要意义。用小弹性模量分析方法对空间飞网构型优化设计问题进行了研究。以绳网中内力分布均衡性为优化目标,选取飞网抛射过程中最大受力时刻为研究工况,赋予绳索单元极小弹性模量,进行静力学计算,并以变形后的结果为初始条件进行迭代分析。优化结果表明,绳网中的内力分布随迭代步数的增加而更趋于均匀。在不改变绳网拓扑结构的前提下,本文所建立的优化设计方法为空间飞网构型优化设计提供了一种参考途径。     

多子带雷达信号融合噪声抑制方法

全极点模型对信号构建线性模型,通过对模型进行定阶和计算可以得到估计信号的各个参数,从而实现信号预测。子带融合之前需要进行相干处理,可以通过相干函数等方式解决。root-MUSIC算法在低信噪比环境中极点选择并不稳健,会导致模型在阶数上判断错误。为解决全极点模型方法中子带融合在信噪比低时模型阶数估计不准的问题,提出一种噪声抑制方法。对信号Hankel矩阵的主对角奇异值矩阵加权处理,以消除噪声分量,并利用整体前向预测矩阵得到整体频段极点值与极点幅值,由此估计出低信噪比时的多子带融合信号。结果表明所提方法在仿真环境下,在信噪比-20 dB至10 dB时,相较于传统极点模型方案具有更好的估计结果。     

基于飞行仿真的近地告警包线计算

TSO-C151b标准中近地告警包线为通用模型设计,未结合飞机的自身特性。为精确给出飞机过大下降速率告警包线,通过结合飞机自身气动特性和操纵特性,分析告警机理,建立飞机六自由度仿真程序。依据飞机发动机数据、气动力数据、质量特性数据等,建立仿真模型及操作程序,实时模拟飞机各舵面的操作响应过程,以及飞机的运动姿态和飞行轨迹,计算飞机在不同下降速率时拉起的损失高度,设计近地告警包线。实际试飞数据验证了模型设计合理,计算结果准确。同时,将仿真计算得出的告警包线与TSO-C151b对比,给出适用于飞机的近地告警包线使用建议,保证飞机飞行安全。     

分段履带式水陆两栖车减阻增速试验及数值仿真

为了研究分段履带式水陆两栖车的水动力性能,实现减阻增速,将尾翼板安装到水陆两栖车的方艉部,并开展了水池试验和仿真研究,两者的研究结果具有较好的一致性。通过仿真研究了车体的纵向重心位置、尾翼板的长度和角度对水陆两栖车阻力性能的影响,并分析了阻力成分的变化趋势。研究结果表明:车体纵向重心位置在540～560 mm 时,车体所受水阻力最小;在速度为3～5 m/s时,长度为156 mm,与水平面夹角为10°的尾翼板减阻效果最明显,相比于原裸车体的阻力,减阻率达到34.3%;加装尾翼板可以增加车体的尾部中空区长度,相当于增加了水线长,增大了长宽比。该研究表明:适当调节重心位置和优化尾翼板参数,可以有效实现水陆两栖车的减阻增速。     

多核贝叶斯优化的模型决策树算法

构造模型决策树时超参数较多,参数组合复杂,利用网格搜索等调参方法将会消耗大量的时间,影响模型性能的提升。提出了一种多核贝叶斯优化的模型决策树算法,该算法为应对不同分类数据特性,采用三种高斯过程建模寻优,利用贝叶斯优化技术,选出最优的参数组合。实验结果表明,所提算法在参数寻优上要优于传统的模型决策树寻优方法,并且能够在迭代次数不多的情况下找到全局最优参数值,在一定程度上提升了算法的分类性能,节省了大量的调参时间。