装备作战单元任务可信度评估方法

首先简要分析了任务可信度的影响因素,并对最小任务单元的任务进行了分类;然后借助马尔可夫过程建立了k／N系统的任务可信度模型,该模型考虑了维修保障和备件补给对任务可信性的影响,在此基础之上分别建立了单台装备、最小任务单元、装备作战单元任务可信度的模型;最后通过实例分析和计算,结果表明该装备作战单元任务可信度评估方法有效可行。     

机动输油管线泵机组仿真模型构建

受经费、人力、装备等因素的制约,机动型输油管线的实装训练往往难以开展,而开展仿真训练则是提高训练水平和效益的重要手段。构建机动输油管线泵机组仿真模型是模拟器研制和管线系统仿真的基础。建立了机动输油管线泵机组柴油机、增速器、离心泵的数学模型,给出了泵机组仿真计算的基本流程,建立了基于统一建模语言（UML）的泵机组仿真模型类图。所提出的建模方法同样适用于滑片泵泵机组。     

气候条件对城市火灾的影响规律

选取样本城市各项火灾数据和气象参数数据,对样本数据进行筛选计算,通过对两者的一元相关性进行研究,得出火灾概率和典型气象参数之间的关系。     

防空导弹火力单元战斗效率评估

从防空战斗的实际需求出发,结合现行防空作战运筹理论中存在的问题,提出了防空导弹火力单元战斗效率指标应包括完成射击任务概率和毁歼空中目标数量等分指标的观点,利用概率论和军事运筹等方法,分析了这两项分指标的构成要素及其相互关系,并建立了相应的评估模型,结合实例说明了模型的具体应用.     

陆军分队作战仿真模型结构描述规范设计

针对当前陆军分队作战仿真模型结构描述不规范现象,在了解其仿真模型结构的基础上,将仿真模型分为单模型和组合模型并将两者描述为不同的四元组结构,同时引入模型方法描述表、模型数据描述文件和模型数据与方法匹配关系表,解决了陆军分队作战仿真模型结构描述的规范化设计问题。为进一步实现陆军分队作战仿真模型规范化描述奠定了基础,同时也为设计和实现陆军分队作战仿真模型管理系统提供了理论和技术上的支持。     

A Nonlinear Model of Military Expenditure Convergence: Evidence From Estar Nonlinear Unit Root Test

The paper builds a model to empirically test military expenditure convergence in a nonlinear set up. We assert that country A chooses a military strategy of catching up with the military expenditure of its rivals, subject to public spending constraints on public investments, including health and education, leading to decrease in long-term economic welfare. This implies nonlinear convergence path: only when the military expenditure gap between countries reaches the threshold level, will it provide incentives to catch up with rival’s military expenditures. We test this nonlinear catching up hypothesis for 37 countries spanning from 1988 to 2012. Results from individual nonlinear cross-sectionally augmented Dickey–Fuller (NCADF) regression indicate that 53% of countries converge to world’s average military expenditure: where 39% of countries converge to Germany; 33% of countries converge to China; 22% of countries converge to the USA, and 11% of countries converge to Russia. Interestingly, USA does not exhibit nonlinear military expenditure convergence toward world’s average level. For panel NCADF regression, the result suggests that on average, there is evidence for countries converging to USA’s military expenditure at 10% significance level. For the convergence to the world’s average, the statistical significance is at the 1% significance level.     

基于数据场的作战单元价值评估模型

作战单元价值是目标选择的重要依据。根据作战单元在作战体系中的效用和影响,提出作战单元的属性价值和级联价值及其量化方法,利用层次分析法和数据场理论,分别评估作战单元的属性价值和级联价值,建立作战单元价值评估模型,并进行仿真分析,验证该评估模型的有效性。     

A characterization of optimal base‐stock levels for a multistage serial supply chain

In this article, we present a multistage model to optimize inventory control decisions under stochastic demand and continuous review. We first formulate the general problem for continuous stages and use a decomposition solution approach: since it is never optimal to let orders cross, the general problem can be broken into a set of single‐unit subproblems that can be solved in a sequential fashion. These subproblems are optimal control problems for which a differential equation must be solved. This can be done easily by recursively identifying coefficients and performing a line search. The methodology is then extended to a discrete number of stages and allows us to compute the optimal solution in an efficient manner, with a competitive complexity. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 32–46, 2016     

维和警察防暴队迎战原则探析

维和警察防暴队在海地任务区遇到很多实际问题。在执勤执法中灵活运用迎战原则,探讨维和警察防暴队迎战原则的法律依据、行动授权和执行程序,总结在任务区复杂多变的情况下维和警察防暴队如何依托国际法规,合理运用迎战原则,有效使用武力授权,合法利用武器装备,严格遵守执行程序的措施和方法,对于完成维和任务具有一定的指导作用。     

消防安全重点单位网格化管理的实践与思考

简要分析了消防安全重点单位监管模式的变化,剖析了消防安全重点单位监管工作中存在的问题,研究探讨了消防安全重点单位建立消防监督大网格、行业检查中网格、单位内部小网格三级网格监管机制,实行消防安保队伍区域联防、建筑消防设施远程监控的实践及运用。