Call center arrival modeling: A Bayesian state‐space approach

In this article, we introduce three discrete time Bayesian state‐space models with Poisson measurements, each aiming to address different issues in call center arrival modeling. We present the properties of the models and develop their Bayesian inference. In so doing, we provide sequential updating and smoothing for call arrival rates and discuss how the models can be used for intra‐day, inter‐day, and inter‐week forecasts. We illustrate the implementation of the models by using actual arrival data from a US commercial bank's call center and provide forecasting comparisons. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 58: 28–42, 2011     

航空火控系统任务分析与任务管理关键技术

任务管理是航空火控系统的核心内容之一,属于火控顶层研究范畴。首先以战斗机进行空中作战的全过程为背景,分析火控系统于不同阶段所对应的任务状态以及不同状态之间的转换关系;在此基础上,对多任务之间的逻辑关系进行研究,并采用基于时序活动的分析方法描述火控系统的多任务特征;然后讨论了火控系统中任务管理问题的难点和关键技术;最后以状态时序→信息感知→传感器管理→(新的)状态时序为主线,构建任务管理的闭环式结构,并对未来战斗机任务管理的发展趋势进行展望。     

混合对策无人战机空战决策

在混合对策理论的基础上,将空战过程看作是由一系列离散的状态组成的离散事件动态系统,建立了空战过程的离散状态子模型,利用空战态势指数和战机空战能力指数构造了战术评估函数,以完成对战术动作的筛选工作,并结合3DOF质点模型设计了机动指令生成器,实现对无人机运动状态的控制,并在Matlab环境下对机动实例进行了仿真.     

基于逆向分层的工作流时间-费用优化方法

针对效用网格下基于优先级因子的工作流时间-费用优化问题,基于工作流的同步完成特征对任务进行分层并提出三种实时调度算法:基于逆向分层的sufferage(BLSuff)、基于逆向分层的min-min(BLMin)及基于逆向分层的min-max(BLMax)。算法设计基于优先级因子的衡量标准对时间与费用同时进行优化,并为任务设置期望完成时间以达到充分利用费用优化空间进行费用优化的目标。实验结果表明这三种算法在各种优先级因子下都能对工作流的执行时间与执行费用进行较好的优化。     

磷酸盐水泥凝结时间研究

试验研究了缓凝剂、氧化镁比表面积及活性、粉煤灰、环境温度、水固比等因素对磷酸盐水泥(MPC)凝结时间的影响,并就磷酸盐水泥水化机理进行讨论.研究结果发现,缓凝剂、氧化镁比表面积及活性、环境温度三者对磷酸盐水泥凝结时间影响较大,而粉煤灰掺量与水固比对凝结时间的影响作用相对较小.     

本征模式函数与经验模式分解方法分析

介绍本征模式函数IMF满足的条件和定义,分析了经验摸式分解EMD的前提、本质及其对非线性平衡系统数据处理所体现的优越性,并以隧道采集的风力数据处理为例,对上述理论进行了验证,展示了这种新方法的作用和效果。最后,从理论上证明了所处理数据的完备性及EMD成员正交性应满足的条件。     

Parallel machine scheduling with job assignment restrictions

In the classical multiprocessor scheduling problem independent jobs must be assigned to parallel, identical machines with the objective of minimizing the makespan. This article explores the effect of assignment restrictions on the jobs for multiprocessor scheduling problems. This means that each job can only be processed on a specific subset of the machines. Particular attention is given to the case of processing times restricted to one of two values, 1 and λ, differing by at most 2. A matching based polynomial time ε‐approximation algorithm is developed that has a performance ratio tending to . This algorithm is shown to have the best possible performance, tending to 3/2, for processing times 1 and 2. For the special case of nested processing sets, i.e., when the sets of machines upon which individual jobs may be assigned are non‐overlapping, the behavior of list scheduling algorithms is explored. Finally, for assignment restrictions determined by just one characteristic of the machines, such as disc storage or memory constraint in the case of high performance computing, we contribute an algorithm that provides a 3/2 worst case bound and runs in time linear in the number of jobs. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

时域超宽带紧缩场雷达目标特性测量系统研究与开发

介绍时域超宽带雷达目标特性测量系统的工作原理及测量软件的开发过程。首次将数字取样示波器应用于紧缩场,研究测量原理,给出系统结构及测量流程图,开发超宽带紧缩场暗室雷达目标特性测量系统,包括雷达散射截面测量、极化散射矩阵测量和微波成像等模块。最后给出该系统测量获得的部分数据。     

The impact of component commonality on composite assembly policies

Assemble in Advance (AIA) policy reduces assembly cost due to advance planning, while Assemble to Order (ATO) policy eliminates assembly of excessive (more than demanded) units. The tradeoffs between the two policies have been studied in the past for single product environments. Moreover, it was shown that it is beneficial to employ AIA and ATO simultaneously. In this article, we study the employment of such a composite assembly policy in a multiproduct environment with component commonality. When common components are used, ATO may also enable us to benefit from the risk pooling effect. We provide important managerial insights such as: the multiperiod problem is myopic and changes in inventory levels due to the use of common components, and demonstrate the potential profit increase compared to other policies.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Optimal burn‐in procedure for periodically inspected systems

Burn‐in is a widely used method to improve the quality of products or systems after they have been produced. In this paper, we study burn‐in procedure for a system that is maintained under periodic inspection and perfect repair policy. Assuming that the underlying lifetime distribution of a system has an initially decreasing and/or eventually increasing failure rate function, we derive upper and lower bounds for the optimal burn‐in time, which maximizes the system availability. Furthermore, adopting an age replacement policy, we derive upper and lower bounds for the optimal age parameter of the replacement policy for each fixed burn‐in time and a uniform upper bound for the optimal burn‐in time given the age replacement policy. These results can be used to reduce the numerical work for determining both optimal burn‐in time and optimal replacement policy. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007