贝叶斯参数估计在雷区范围估计中的应用

提出了以发现水雷位置信息为抽样点,在给定估计误差的条件下,使用贝叶斯参数估计方法进行雷区范围估计的思路。详细讨论了水雷服从均匀分布时使用贝叶斯参数估计方法估计雷区范围的问题,给出了相关公式的推导过程,并设法解决仿真中存在的中间数值过大的问题。仿真结果均在允许误差范围之内,这验证了算法的可行性。     

Statistical analysis of exponential lifetimes under an adaptive Type‐II progressive censoring scheme

In this article, a mixture of Type‐I censoring and Type‐II progressive censoring schemes, called an adaptive Type‐II progressive censoring scheme, is introduced for life testing or reliability experiments. For this censoring scheme, the effective sample size m is fixed in advance, and the progressive censoring scheme is provided but the number of items progressively removed from the experiment upon failure may change during the experiment. If the experimental time exceeds a prefixed time T but the number of observed failures does not reach m, we terminate the experiment as soon as possible by adjusting the number of items progressively removed from the experiment upon failure. Computational formulae for the expected total test time are provided. Point and interval estimation of the failure rate for exponentially distributed failure times are discussed for this censoring scheme. The various methods are compared using Monte Carlo simulation. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

基于Vague集模糊值线性序法的雷达抗干扰效能评估

针对已有评估方法存在的不足,提出了一种基于Vague集模糊值线性序法的雷达抗干扰效能评估方法。分析了影响雷达抗干扰效能的指标因素,给出了各评价指标的模糊值表示,建立了基于Vague集模糊值线性序法的雷达抗干扰效能综合评价模型,得到了评价其效能的排序方法。最后通过实例分析验证,该方法评估结果准确,具有一定参考价值。     

基于估计协方差MME检测的频谱感知算法

针对小采样数据长度下,采样协方差矩阵对统计协方差矩阵估计不准,影响传统最大最小特征值(MME)检测算法检测性能的问题,提出一种基于逼近收缩(OAS)矩阵估计的改进MME检测算法。首先利用OAS估计量对采样数据做协方差矩阵估计,再对估计协方差矩阵特征值分解,将最大最小特征值之比作为检测统计量,克服了传统MME算法检测门限随采样点大幅波动的缺陷,提高了检测门限的鲁棒性。仿真结果表明,所提算法的检测门限具有鲁棒性,检测性能提高了1 d B~2 d B。     

War Size Distribution: Empirical Regularities Behind Conflicts

This paper analyses the statistical distribution of war sizes. Using a new methodology we find moderate support for a Pareto-type distribution (power law), considering data from different sources (COW and UCDP) and periods. A power law is a plausible model for the size distribution of a pool of all wars and a sample of wars in many years, although the log-normal distribution is a plausible alternative model that we cannot reject. The random growth of conflicts could generate both types of distribution. We study the growth rates of battle deaths and random growth cannot be rejected for most of the distribution, although the results also reveal a clear decreasing pattern; the growth of deaths declines faster if the number of initial deaths is greater.     

弹炮结合防空武器系统火力分配模型

火力分配是弹炮结合武器系统射击指挥中的重要环节。论文针对弹炮结合武器系统中防空导弹分系统和高炮分系统战术技术性能与作战特点,在具体分析火力分配考虑的主要因素——防空导弹分系统和高炮分系统的杀伤区与毁伤概率的基础上,确立了相应的火力优化分配原则,构建了实用的临近航路和过航点处火力分配模型,通过仿真表明该模型实时性好,能满足实际应用需要,对进一步研究提供了有益的参考。     

防空导弹制导雷达综合抗干扰能力评估

分析了地空导弹武器系统制导雷达面临的主要干扰及其所采取的主要抗干扰措施,一般层次分析法(AHP)在评估某些模糊概念时存在缺陷。基于模糊层次分析法(FAHP),构造了模糊一致判断矩阵,建立了防空导弹制导雷达综合抗干扰能力评估模型,该模型具有快速、易于操作等优点,解决了在评价制导雷达综合抗干扰能力时难以定量分析的问题。     

指派问题的降阶优化算法

指派问题是运筹学中特殊线性规划中的一类问题。在现实生活中,指派问题非常普遍,常常可以见到各种各样的指派问题。通过对指派问题的数学模型进行分析,提出了与以往方法不同的求解指派问题的一种新的思路,通过对几个定理的研究,给出了一种新的求解方法——降阶优化算法。对求解指派问题提供了一种新的途径,在运筹学等领域有着较好的应用前景。     

Repairable consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n: F system with Markov dependence

In this article, a model for a repairable consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n: F system with Markov dependence is studied. A binary vector is used to represent the system state. The failure rate of a component in the system depends on the state of the preceding component. The failure risk of a system state is then introduced. On the basis of the failure risk, a priority repair rule is adopted. Then the transition density matrix can be determined, and the analysis of the system reliability can be conducted accordingly. One example each of a linear and a circular system is then studied in detail to explain the model and methodology developed in this paper. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 18–39, 2000     

气泡输运方程及其应用

舰船尾流中含有大量的不同直径的气泡 ,尾流的几何特性与产生它的舰船大小、航行速度、海面风速等因素有很大的关系 ,对气泡规律的研究无论在理论还是在应用中都具有重要的意义。介绍了水中气泡分布函数 ,推导了分布函数所满足的输运方程 ,并给出了气泡输运方程的特征解。对影响分布函数的因素作了探讨 ,并利用输运方程对具体问题进行了计算。结果表明 ,运用气泡输运方程可解决气泡的分布、输运问题 ,并可对气泡分布与气泡半径、气泡所处深度的关系作出定量分析