耐久性及其在装备研制中的应用

机械产品在武器装备中占有较大的比例,机械产品的故障,有很多是由于疲劳、磨损、腐蚀、老化等渐变性的耗损过程造成的,寿命是机械产品可靠性中的重要问题。耐久性的提出为解决机械产品与寿命有关的问题提供了方法和工具。通过探讨耐久性的定义、极限状态、耐久性参数、耐久性分配与预计等有关耐久性的基本问题,给出了耐久性分配与预计的工程实例。     

装甲装备修理对象修理工作量的分布模型及应用

通过论述当今典型军队战时修理机构任务的划分,给出了装甲装备修理对象按照修理工作量和按照修理时间分布的2种模型,结合俄陆军各级修理机构修理时限的划分,计算得到了典型装甲装备的技术故障和战损产生的修理对象在各级修理机构的概率分布,为开展战损研究提供了一条新途径,对提高技术保障方案的准确性有积极作用。     

基于MCMC方法的Lorenz混沌系统的参数估计

基于贝叶斯理论,提出用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)方法来估计Lorenz混沌系统的未知参数。首先导出了未知参数分布规律的后验概率密度函数;接着采用自适应Metropolis算法构造Markov链;然后截取收敛的链序列,计算混沌系统参数的估计值。数值试验表明:该方法具有很高的估计精度,同时具有较好的抗噪声性能。     

基于遗传算法的大型降落伞气动力参数辨识

建立了降落伞回收系统的六自由度动力学及运动模型,针对大型降落伞可观测数据少的特点,设计遗传算法辨识其气动力参数,利用仿真验证了辨识方法的可行性和辨识模型的正确性。结合空投试验录像分析数据,辨识了某型号飞船所采用大型环帆伞的气动力参数,并利用辨识结果对其稳定性进行分析,其结论可作为回收系统设计的理论参考依据。     

The value of losing control: Competition in markets for complements

When selling complementary products, manufacturers can often benefit from considering the resulting cross‐market interdependencies. Although using independent retailers makes it difficult to internalize these positive externalities, the ensuing double marginalization can mitigate within‐market competition. We use standard game theoretic analysis to determine optimal distribution channel strategies (through independent retailers or integrated) for competing manufacturers who participate in markets for complements. Our results suggest that a firm's optimal channel choice is highly dependent on its competitive positioning. A firm with a competitive advantage in terms of product characteristics (customer preferences) or production capabilities (cost) might benefit from selling through company‐controlled stores, allowing coordinated pricing across the two markets, whereas a less competitive firm might be better off using independent channel intermediaries to mitigate price competition. We consider two scenarios depending on whether the two firms make their distribution channel decisions sequentially or simultaneously. Although firms are unlikely to make such decisions at exactly the same instant, the simultaneous model also serves as a proxy for the scenario where firms decide sequentially, but where they cannot observe each other's strategic channel choices. For the sequential case, we find that the sequence of entry can have tremendous impact on the two firms'profits; whereas in some cases, the first mover can achieve substantially higher profits, we find that when the two markets are of sufficiently different size and only loosely related, a firm with a competitive advantage might be better off as a follower. Interestingly, our results suggest that, when the markets are of rather similar size, both firms are better off if they enter the industry sequentially. In those cases, the first entrant has incentive to reveal its planned channel strategies, and the follower has incentive to seek out and consider this information. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

军用飞机改进改型研制费用的参数估算法

首先分析并建立了军用飞机改进改型研制的费用分解结构,阐明了与新研飞机在各分项费用上的差别。基于当量工程的概念提出了用减缩系数来估算改进改型研制的费用修正和各分项费用的减缩系数的估计方法,结合现有成熟的参数估算模型建立了相应的改进改型研制的费用估算模型。最后,以某型飞机的改型研制费用为例进行了实例分析,结果表明方法与模型具有较好的有效性和实用性。     

中程空空导弹冲淡式干扰模型

中程空空导弹的末制导主动雷达一方面提高了中程空空导弹作战效能和载机的生成概率,另一方面也为对中程空空导弹实施冲淡式干扰提供了机会。基于冲淡式干扰的基本原理建立了中程空空导弹的冲淡式电子干扰模型,分析了各种不同攻防对策下的冲淡式干扰的效果及其变化趋势,在此基础上讨论了对抗双方在冲淡式电子对抗中的最优对策。     

多指标下的炮兵火力最优分配

为了提高炮兵火力打击效能,提出了小生境遗传算法与模糊多目标决策相结合的混合算法,建立了多指标下的炮兵火力分配模型,并阐述了混合算法设计,给出了应用举例,结果表明,与传统的单指标下的炮兵火力最优分配相比,该方法更符合战场实际情况。     

二维弹道修正弹及其制导控制技术综述

针对二维弹道修正弹这类具有广泛应用前景的智能弹药,综述了二维弹道修正弹的发展、主要修正机构方案及其制导控制技术.对二维弹道修正弹的研制历程进行总结,梳理发展脉络揭示其发展规律,分析二维修正弹的打击任务.对几种主流修正方案进行讨论,分析各机构的作用特点及研究难点.基于二维弹道修正弹打击任务需求,从气动辨识及状态估计算法、...     

改进cell密度聚类算法在空战目标分群中的应用

针对传统聚类算法对流形分布数据聚类效果差,且实时性不高的缺点,提出改进基于cell的密度聚类(Cell-Based density Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise,CBSCAN)算法解决实时空战目标分群问题.通过分析空战态势参数,建立了空战目标分群通用模型,将...