Estimating the probability that a simulated system will be the best

Consider a stochastic simulation experiment consisting of v independent vector replications consisting of an observation from each of k independent systems. Typical system comparisons are based on mean (long‐run) performance. However, the probability that a system will actually be the best is sometimes more relevant, and can provide a very different perspective than the systems' means. Empirically, we select one system as the best performer (i.e., it wins) on each replication. Each system has an unknown constant probability of winning on any replication and the numbers of wins for the individual systems follow a multinomial distribution. Procedures exist for selecting the system with the largest probability of being the best. This paper addresses the companion problem of estimating the probability that each system will be the best. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the multinomial cell probabilities for a set of v vector replications across k systems are well known. We use these same v vector replications to form v^k unique vectors (termed pseudo‐replications) that contain one observation from each system and develop estimators based on AVC (All Vector Comparisons). In other words, we compare every observation from each system with every combination of observations from the remaining systems and note the best performer in each pseudo‐replication. AVC provides lower variance estimators of the probability that each system will be the best than the MLEs. We also derive confidence intervals for the AVC point estimators, present a portion of an extensive empirical evaluation and provide a realistic example. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 341–358, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10019     

Minimizing weighted earliness and tardiness penalties in single‐machine scheduling with idle time permitted

In this paper, a single‐machine scheduling problem with weighted earliness and tardiness penalties is considered. Idle time between two adjacent jobs is permitted and due dates of jobs could be unequal. The dominance rules are utilized to develop a relationship matrix, which allows a branch‐and‐bound algorithm to eliminate a high percentage of infeasible solutions. After combining this matrix with a branching strategy, a procedure to solve the problem is proposed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 760–780, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10039     

导弹制导控制与目标杀伤

采用协方差分析描述函数技术 (CADFT)对寻的导弹的制导精度进行了研究 ,提出了空气动力控制、直接侧向力控制的寻的导弹飞行末端的制导精度的一种新的解析模型 ,并研究了导弹直接碰撞杀伤目标的必要条件 ,该理论研究成果具有简单、实用、精度高的特点 ,为寻的导弹制导控制特性研究和揭示寻的理论普遍规律提供了一种新途径     

德治与法治的双向互动是推动党风建设的重要手段

以德治国和以法治国是社会主义建设选择的正确方向,在党风建设上亦如此.德法兼治是推动党风建设的重要手段,在运用这一手段过程中应注意道德与法律,实践与知识普及的关系,还应着力建立完善的监督机制和教育体系.     

美国陆军作战指挥系统

自海湾战争以来的局部战争,信息作战改变并主导了现代战场。描述了美陆军作战指挥系统及其支援系统、通信系统的组成、基本功能和发展前景。     

维修费用合理值计算的基本方法

阐述了武器装备维修费用合理值的计算与评估方法 ,包括平均维修费用、一次性维修费用、实际维修费用等方面     

论恩格斯的未来婚姻家庭观

恩格斯对未来婚姻家庭理论的科学概括以及新形势下我国婚姻家庭关系发生的深刻变化说明,随着社会的变革,马克思主义婚姻家庭理论必将不断丰富和发展.     

理、情、意、行——思想政治工作的四要素

我国思想政治工作者在实践中总结出来的"晓之以理、动之以情、持之以恒、导之以行"的十六字方针,是对思想政治工作规律的反映,其中的"理"、"情"、"意"、"行"是做好思想政治工作的四个基本因素,它们在思想政治工作中起着各自不可替代的作用.     

随机载荷下疲劳寿命预估计算方法研究

分析了一种用于随机载荷下零构件疲劳寿命预估的有效计算方法 .引入材料所吸收的弹性应变能和塑性应变能等参量 ,在等能量损伤法则下推算出稳态条件下随机载荷的等价常幅应力 ,适用于结构设计阶段和改进阶段或应力响应时间历程无法实测的情况 .     

917低磁钢与铝合金爆炸焊接复合实验研究

采用异种金属爆炸焊接复合技术 ,研制了 91 7低磁钢与LF5、LF2 1、LF1 1等铝合金的爆炸焊接复合板 ,并对该铝—钢复合板力学性能进行了实验研究 ,对复合界面进行了金相分析 .实验结果表明 ,该铝—钢复合板复合界面物理结合良好 ,其抗剪和抗弯强度满足实船使用要求