Natural gas storage valuation and optimization: A real options application

In this article, we present an algorithm for the valuation and optimal operation of natural gas storage facilities. Real options theory is used to derive nonlinear partial‐integro‐differential equations (PIDEs), the solution of which give both valuation and optimal operating strategies for these facilities. The equations are designed to incorporate a wide class of spot price models that can exhibit the same time‐dependent, mean‐reverting dynamics, and price spikes as those observed in most energy markets. Particular attention is paid to the operational characteristics of real storage units. These characteristics include working gas capacities, variable deliverability and injection rates, and cycling limitations. We illustrate the model with a numerical example of a salt cavern storage facility that clearly shows how a gas storage facility is like a financial straddle with both put and call properties. Depending on the amount of gas in storage the relative influence of the put and call components vary. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

基于金属膜电阻的大功率低电感负载

利用金属膜电阻设计并制作了用于陡化前沿Marx发生器调试的大功率低电感负载.其阻值约为90Ω,电感约为55nH,基本不具备分散电容.该负载采用线性渐变的圆锥外型结构,有利于减小信号在负载上的反射,配合电容分压器使用能够很好地完成对前沿约为几ns的快前沿高压脉冲的测量.理论估算了该负载的功率容量,并利用PSpice软件模拟了对其进行脉冲方波加载的情况.该负载用于调试陡化前沿的Marx发生器的实验中,获得了幅值约210kV,脉宽近40ns,前沿为5ns的快前沿高压脉冲.多次实验结果表明该负载性能稳定,适用于陡化前沿Marx发生器的调试工作.     

Designing and pricing menus of extended warranty contracts

Extended warranties provide “piece of mind” to a consumer in that product failures which occur after the base warranty expires are rectified at little or no cost. They also provide an additional source of revenue for manufacturers or third‐party providers, such as retailers or insurance providers, and help cultivate consumer loyalty. In this article, we analyze a number of extended warranty contracts which differ in design, including restrictions on deferrals and renewals. With the use of dynamic programming, we compute the optimal strategy for a consumer with perfect information and determine the optimal pricing policy for the provider given the consumer's risk characterization. We also provide insight into when different contracts should be issued. Finally, we illustrate how profits can be dramatically increased by offering menus of warranty contracts, as opposed to stand alone contracts, with the use of integer programming. Surprisingly, risk‐taking consumers provide the greatest benefit to offering menus. These insights can help a company develop a comprehensive warranty planning strategy for given products or product lines. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

某两栖车绕流场数值模拟研究及外形优化分析

运用多块混合网格,采用RNG湍流模型、流体体积法(VOF)和PISO算法对某型两栖侦察车带自由表面的粘性绕流场进行了数值模拟研究,数值方法采用相关试验数据进行了验证,误差在9%以内.针对模拟结果显示的影响其水动力特性的主要结构部位和外形参数进行了优化,并计算分析了轮穴、车体切角、车轮状态以及车首导流板对两栖车航行性能的影响.计算结果表明,改进后的车体绕流场特性得到了较大的改善,航速10km/h时减阻效果可达原车总阻力的69.2%,有效地提高了某型两栖侦察车的航行性能.     

基于LBDL逻辑的抗DPA攻击电路设计方法

动态差分逻辑是一种典型的电路级差分功耗攻击(DPA)防护技术.这种技术通过使逻辑门保持恒定的翻转率来降低电路功耗与数据信号之间的相关性.介绍了一种新型的、基于查找表(Look-Up-Table,LUT)结构的动态差分逻辑(LBDL),以及基于这种逻辑的集成电路设计方法.该设计方法仅需在传统的半定制设计流程中添加少量的替换操作就可以实现 ,因而比其他完全需要全定制设计的动态差分逻辑具有更好的实用性.而相对同样适用于半定制实现的动态差分逻辑 WDDL(Wave Dynamic Differential Logic),LBDL逻辑解决了逻辑门翻转时刻与数据信号之间的相关性,从而比WDDL逻辑具有更好的功耗恒定性.实验结果表明,该设计方法能够有效实现具有抗DPA攻击性能的电路.     

How pressure for change challenge military organizational characteristics

This article elaborates on how structural, normative and functional pressures for change may challenge military organizational characteristics. We problematize theoretically and exemplify empirically what consequences these pressures can have on military organizational characteristics, arguing that they constitute major challenges for managing in particular normative pressures for change. The empirical examples suggest that bureaucratic, hierarchical, narcissistic and greedy traits of the organization are challenged by normative pressures such as value changes and normalization. Another source of challenge is professionalization processes. Structural challenges, on the other hand, are managed by the organization and do not seem to inhibit the workings of organizational characteristics. The plausibility probe conducted questions the sustainability of military organizational characteristics in their traditional disguise, in particular due to legitimacy concerns. It is suggested that future research should be directed towards analyzing how military organizations manage pressure for change and whether their characteristics are questioned.     

Dynamic institutionalization: the foundations of Japan’s radioactive problem

Many have suggested that the true purpose behind Japan’s development of a closed nuclear-fuel cycle is to maintain the technical potential to develop nuclear weapons. However, closer examination of the development of Japan’s nuclear industry shows that, although Japan possesses advanced nuclear technologies, there has been no deliberate strategy to create a nuclear-weapon option. There is no “nuclear hedge.” To illustrate this point, this article presents a framework called “dynamic institutionalization” to explain the origins of Japan’s nuclear policies and the different sets of institutionalized pressures and constraints that have perpetuated these policies over time. Japan’s continued development of closed fuel-cycle technologies is primarily driven by domestic politics and the lack of a permanent spent-fuel management solution. On the other hand, Japan’s institutionalized nuclear forbearance is driven by the calculation that, as long as US extended deterrence remains credible, Japan’s security is best guaranteed through reliance on the US nuclear umbrella. By analytically untangling the policy of closed fuel-cycle development from the rationale for nuclear forbearance, this article provides a more nuanced view of the relationships between the domestic and international variables shaping Japan’s nuclear policies.     

Military Spending,Conflict and External Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa

The damaging economic effects of the debt crises on Africa in the late 1980s encouraged considerable research on the determinants of external debt in developing economies. Although sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) debt was cut by two-thirds by 2008, through two debt relief programmes, debt in the region has since been rising at an increasingly rapid pace. This study provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of external debt in SSA over the period 1960–2016, using dynamic panel methods. It also considers two potentially important factors that have received relatively little attention. One is military spending, rarely considered, despite a number of well-publicised scandals over the procurement of unnecessary and expensive high-tech weapons systems. A second, is the possibility that the countries studied have been involved in conflict. The empirical results point to a positive impact of military spending on external debt, but with some evidence of heterogeneity across the countries. Furthermore, findings indicate that the positive effect of military expenditure on debt becomes more marked in countries that have been affected by conflict. These results imply that policies to improve security and reduce military spending could be beneficial in reducing external debt and, potentially, improving economic performance in the region.     

On Government-industry Nexus and Indigenous Armed Resistance

This paper proposes a simple game-theoretic framework for analyzing the relationship between the government, industry and indigenous community, especially in the context of mounting violence surrounding displacement of indigenous communities by governments for the purposes of commercial use of their habitat. It specifically takes into account the possibility of alleged ‘nexus’ between the government and the industry and explores its implications on the level of allocation and utilities of the players. We find that the bias in allocation that occurs when the government and the industry enter a ‘nexus’ can be rectified when there is resistance from the indigenous groups. Moreover, rebellion is a dominant strategy of the indigenous community, irrespective of whether there is ‘nexus’ or not, and being in ‘nexus’ with the government is a best response for the industry. The unique SPNE occurs when there is ‘nexus’ between the industry and the government and resistance by the indigenous groups, corroborating the widespread allegations of ‘nexus’ and evidence of resistance worldwide. We also explore a few extensions of the basic model and present some narrative evidence in support of the theoretical model.     

The building evacuation problem with shared information

In this article, the Building Evacuation Problem with Shared Information (BEPSI) is formulated as a mixed integer linear program, where the objective is to determine the set of routes along which to send evacuees (supply) from multiple locations throughout a building (sources) to the exits (sinks) such that the total time until all evacuees reach the exits is minimized. The formulation explicitly incorporates the constraints of shared information in providing online instructions to evacuees, ensuring that evacuees departing from an intermediate or source location at a mutual point in time receive common instructions. Arc travel time and capacity, as well as supply at the nodes, are permitted to vary with time and capacity is assumed to be recaptured over time. The BEPSI is shown to be NP‐hard. An exact technique based on Benders decomposition is proposed for its solution. Computational results from numerical experiments on a real‐world network representing a four‐story building are given. Results of experiments employing Benders cuts generated in solving a given problem instance as initial cuts in addressing an updated problem instance are also provided. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008