Natural gas storage valuation and optimization: A real options application

In this article, we present an algorithm for the valuation and optimal operation of natural gas storage facilities. Real options theory is used to derive nonlinear partial‐integro‐differential equations (PIDEs), the solution of which give both valuation and optimal operating strategies for these facilities. The equations are designed to incorporate a wide class of spot price models that can exhibit the same time‐dependent, mean‐reverting dynamics, and price spikes as those observed in most energy markets. Particular attention is paid to the operational characteristics of real storage units. These characteristics include working gas capacities, variable deliverability and injection rates, and cycling limitations. We illustrate the model with a numerical example of a salt cavern storage facility that clearly shows how a gas storage facility is like a financial straddle with both put and call properties. Depending on the amount of gas in storage the relative influence of the put and call components vary. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

Designing and pricing menus of extended warranty contracts

Extended warranties provide “piece of mind” to a consumer in that product failures which occur after the base warranty expires are rectified at little or no cost. They also provide an additional source of revenue for manufacturers or third‐party providers, such as retailers or insurance providers, and help cultivate consumer loyalty. In this article, we analyze a number of extended warranty contracts which differ in design, including restrictions on deferrals and renewals. With the use of dynamic programming, we compute the optimal strategy for a consumer with perfect information and determine the optimal pricing policy for the provider given the consumer's risk characterization. We also provide insight into when different contracts should be issued. Finally, we illustrate how profits can be dramatically increased by offering menus of warranty contracts, as opposed to stand alone contracts, with the use of integer programming. Surprisingly, risk‐taking consumers provide the greatest benefit to offering menus. These insights can help a company develop a comprehensive warranty planning strategy for given products or product lines. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

基于LBDL逻辑的抗DPA攻击电路设计方法

动态差分逻辑是一种典型的电路级差分功耗攻击(DPA)防护技术.这种技术通过使逻辑门保持恒定的翻转率来降低电路功耗与数据信号之间的相关性.介绍了一种新型的、基于查找表(Look-Up-Table,LUT)结构的动态差分逻辑(LBDL),以及基于这种逻辑的集成电路设计方法.该设计方法仅需在传统的半定制设计流程中添加少量的替换操作就可以实现 ,因而比其他完全需要全定制设计的动态差分逻辑具有更好的实用性.而相对同样适用于半定制实现的动态差分逻辑 WDDL(Wave Dynamic Differential Logic),LBDL逻辑解决了逻辑门翻转时刻与数据信号之间的相关性,从而比WDDL逻辑具有更好的功耗恒定性.实验结果表明,该设计方法能够有效实现具有抗DPA攻击性能的电路.     

Dynamic institutionalization: the foundations of Japan’s radioactive problem

Many have suggested that the true purpose behind Japan’s development of a closed nuclear-fuel cycle is to maintain the technical potential to develop nuclear weapons. However, closer examination of the development of Japan’s nuclear industry shows that, although Japan possesses advanced nuclear technologies, there has been no deliberate strategy to create a nuclear-weapon option. There is no “nuclear hedge.” To illustrate this point, this article presents a framework called “dynamic institutionalization” to explain the origins of Japan’s nuclear policies and the different sets of institutionalized pressures and constraints that have perpetuated these policies over time. Japan’s continued development of closed fuel-cycle technologies is primarily driven by domestic politics and the lack of a permanent spent-fuel management solution. On the other hand, Japan’s institutionalized nuclear forbearance is driven by the calculation that, as long as US extended deterrence remains credible, Japan’s security is best guaranteed through reliance on the US nuclear umbrella. By analytically untangling the policy of closed fuel-cycle development from the rationale for nuclear forbearance, this article provides a more nuanced view of the relationships between the domestic and international variables shaping Japan’s nuclear policies.     

Military Spending,Conflict and External Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa

The damaging economic effects of the debt crises on Africa in the late 1980s encouraged considerable research on the determinants of external debt in developing economies. Although sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) debt was cut by two-thirds by 2008, through two debt relief programmes, debt in the region has since been rising at an increasingly rapid pace. This study provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of external debt in SSA over the period 1960–2016, using dynamic panel methods. It also considers two potentially important factors that have received relatively little attention. One is military spending, rarely considered, despite a number of well-publicised scandals over the procurement of unnecessary and expensive high-tech weapons systems. A second, is the possibility that the countries studied have been involved in conflict. The empirical results point to a positive impact of military spending on external debt, but with some evidence of heterogeneity across the countries. Furthermore, findings indicate that the positive effect of military expenditure on debt becomes more marked in countries that have been affected by conflict. These results imply that policies to improve security and reduce military spending could be beneficial in reducing external debt and, potentially, improving economic performance in the region.     

基于生成模型的人体行为识别

提出了一种基于生成模型的人体行为识别方法。选取关键点轨迹的方向-大小描述符、轨迹形状描述符、外观描述符作为人体行为的特征;为了降低人体行为特征维数,利用信息瓶颈算法进行词表压缩;利用生成模型,结合已标记样本和未标记样本提出了一种人体行为识别的半监督学习方法,解决了行为识别中的小样本问题。在YouTube 数据库、 UCF运动数据库上利用提出的方法与已有的方法进行了对比实验,结果表明该方法具有更高的识别精度。     

动态滑翔运动建模、机理分析与航迹优化

信天翁凭借动态滑翔的飞行技巧从梯度风中获取能量,从而在几乎不拍翅膀的情况下进行长时间、长距离飞行,这种技巧应用于小型无人机上可拓展其完成任务的能力。基于飞行器动力学对梯度风场中的无人机运动方程进行推导和简化处理;利用简化的运动方程,分别从非惯性参考系中的动能定理和机械能变化的角度,对动态滑翔获取能量的机理进行分析;利用微分平坦法,以最小平均控制输入变化率为目标函数,对徘徊模式和平移模式的动态滑翔航迹进行优化计算。分析结果表明:逆风爬升、顺风下滑是动态滑翔基本获能方式。优化结果表明:控制输入变得更加平滑,甚至出现阶段性的常值,使得控制更加简化;徘徊模式下,当风梯度作为决策变量时,优化过程可在[0,0.5 s-1]的区间上找到使得目标函数值最小的风梯度;平移模式下,目标函数值在该区间上单调递减。     

高动态GNSS信号多普勒模拟任意阶直接数字合成器设计

为高精度模拟高动态条件下GNSS信号的多普勒特性,提出一种任意阶直接数字合成信号合成器的设计方法。设计任意阶直接数字合成信号合成器的结构;通过理论分析,推导各级累加器相位初值的计算公式;给出字长选择方法。经仿真验证,该方法能精确模拟GNSS信号的多普勒特性。此外,提出的直接数字合成器设计方法不受阶数的限制,可普遍应用于各类信号模拟器的设计。     

弹道导弹威胁估计模型构建

简要分析了弹道导弹飞行3个阶段的不同特点及各阶段导弹预警探测手段的侧重点,结合威胁估计的特征构建了弹道导弹威胁估计模型结构框架,运用多阶段贝叶斯网络理论,构造了主动段、自由段和再入段威胁估计模型,并明确了三阶段间的转换时机。采用动态贝叶斯方法对弹道导弹作战全过程进行威胁估计仿真推理,仿真结果能够反映导弹在飞行过程中威胁程度的变化特点,为反导指挥员作出辅助决策提供智力支持。     

舰艇编队协同防空武器组织的研究现状与展望

针对舰艇编队防空作战中武器的敏捷协同与优化组织问题,分析了舰艇编队防空武器运用的历史衍变,综述了国内外关于武器组织的概念认知,引入双边匹配决策理论,剖析了舰艇编队协同防空武器组织问题的本质,凝练出1个科学问题、定位了4个关键技术,提出了基于动态双边匹配的舰艇编队协同防空武器组织技术框架,可为网络中心战条件下舰艇编队协同防空武器组织方法研究提供支持。