Small world,big guns: globalization,interstate security networks and conventional weapons imports

With the burgeoning influence of emerging markets in Asia, a tectonic shift is taking place in the global security landscape. Asian states are concomitantly arming as their economic clout grows. In light of these developments, security analysts would benefit from a formal means of placing these arms acquisitions in a structural context. Are arms acquisitions on par with the expectations of Asian states, given their structural dispositions, or are recent acquisitions beyond anticipated levels? By using a dynamic panel regression of 187 states from 1950 to 2011, this research predicts arms import volume using the degree of interstate arms linkages, the size of a state's military, and its level of economic development. The technique offers analysts a formal means of distinguishing orthodox behavior in importing conventional weapons from extraneous security motivations. The article concludes by generating near-term forecasts of Asian arms imports and discussing the implications of the technique.     

Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Optimal path finding in direction,location, and time dependent environments

This article examines optimal path finding problems where cost function and constraints are direction, location, and time dependent. Recent advancements in sensor and data‐processing technology facilitate the collection of detailed real‐time information about the environment surrounding a ground vehicle, an airplane, or a naval vessel. We present a navigation model that makes use of such information. We relax a number of assumptions from existing literature on path‐finding problems and create an accurate, yet tractable, model suitable for implementation for a large class of problems. We present a dynamic programming model which integrates our earlier results for direction‐dependent, time and space homogeneous environment, and consequently, improves its accuracy, efficiency, and run‐time. The proposed path finding model also addresses limited information about the surrounding environment, control‐feasibility of the considered paths, such as sharpest feasible turns a vehicle can make, and computational demands of a time‐dependent environment. To demonstrate the applicability and performance of our path‐finding algorithm, computational experiments for a short‐range ship routing in dynamic wave‐field problem are presented. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

Economic lot sizing with constant capacities and concave inventory costs

This article studies the classical single‐item economic lot‐sizing problem with constant capacities, fixed‐plus‐linear order costs, and concave inventory costs, where backlogging is allowed. We propose an O(T³) optimal algorithm for the problem, which improves upon the O(T⁴) running time of the famous algorithm developed by Florian and Klein (Manage Sci18 (1971) 12–20). Instead of using the standard dynamic programming approach by predetermining the minimal cost for every possible subplan, we develop a backward dynamic programming algorithm to obtain a more efficient implementation. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

Newsvendor problems with sequentially revealed demand information

This article analyzes a capacity/inventory planning problem with a one‐time uncertain demand. There is a long procurement leadtime, but as some partial demand information is revealed, the firm is allowed to cancel some of the original capacity reservation at a certain fee or sell off some inventory at a lower price. The problem can be viewed as a generalization of the classic newsvendor problem and can be found in many applications. One key observation of the analysis is that the dynamic programming formulation of the problem is closely related to a recursion that arises in the study of a far more complex system, a series inventory system with stochastic demand over an infinite horizon. Using this equivalence, we characterize the optimal policy and assess the value of the additional demand information. We also extend the analysis to a richer model of information. Here, demand is driven by an underlying Markov process, representing economic conditions, weather, market competition, and other environmental factors. Interestingly, under this more general model, the connection to the series inventory system is different. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2012     

特征结构配置和H_∞鲁棒控制的飞行控制器设计

常规的特征结构配置(EA)方法不能同时满足系统频域设计指标和鲁棒稳定性的要求,而H_∞鲁棒控制理论在设计控制器时,并没有考虑系统时域性能。为此,基于特征结构配置和H_∞鲁棒控制,设计一种直观的控制器。该控制器以特征结构配置作为内环控制器,以H_∞鲁棒控制器作为外环控制器,使闭环系统能同时获得较好的时域动态特性、鲁棒稳定性以及指令跟踪性能力。通过对某无人机横侧向飞行控制的仿真,进一步验证了该方法的有效性。     

无人机航迹规划常用算法

无人机航迹规划是实现无人机自主飞行的关键技术保障,航迹规划算法则是航迹规划的核心。首先介绍无人机航迹规划的相关理论,其次分析归纳了当前常用的航迹规划算法,最后阐述了航迹规划所面临的挑战及其发展方向。     

基于模型参数辨识的动力调谐陀螺故障诊断方法

提出了基于动调陀螺转子动力学模型参数辨识的陀螺故障诊断方法 ,详细探讨了其中的关键技术 ,并以某型捷联惯导系统中的动调陀螺为对象 ,在实测信号的基础上进行了故障仿真与实际诊断。结果表明该方法能有效地诊断动调陀螺故障 ,具有一定的实际应用价值 ,并为陀螺故障诊断研究提供了新的途径和思路。     

飞越北极航行时间模型的研究

对飞越北极,缩短航线,节省航行时间问题进行了研究。采用了多种算法,对其有效性、适用性和复杂性进行分析讨论。假设"在旋转椭球体中,以通过球心和该椭球体上任意两点所构成的平面截此椭球体所得轨迹弧长作为曲面上两点间最短距离的近似值",在此基础上,通过运用数学软件计算得出结论:从北京出发,飞越北极抵达底特律的飞行时间可节省4.079 6h,从而使问题得到了进一步的验证。     

具有倒“Y”型吊挂的降落伞系统动力学建模

具有倒"Y"型吊挂的降落伞系统在回收领域具有广泛的应用.建立了这类系统的动力学模型,包括考虑附加质量的一般刚体动力学方程和基于"平衡点"假设的吊挂系统建模方法.利用该模型对某型飞船空投试验情况进行了仿真分析,通过与试验数据对比,验证了模型的有效性.