舰炮火控雷达实测误差时序特性分析建模

针对舰炮火控雷达高精度实时仿真建模的问题,运用高斯分布和正态平稳过程的两种误差序列生成方法,建立火控雷达简化仿真模型。通过对某火控雷达实测数据误差的统计及时序相关性分析,完成误差序列仿真生成与验证,给出了实现舰炮火控雷达探测误差仿真的优选方法。实践证明,正态平稳模型的误差生成方法可以有效满足新型舰炮仿真试验火控雷达建模要求。     

基于脉冲控制的末修弹飞行稳定性研究

脉冲力的瞬间作用会引起攻角和侧滑角的急剧变化,对末修弹飞行稳定性产生较大的影响.以线性化运动微分方程组为数学解析手段,对末修弹脉冲作用稳定性进行深入分析研究.数值仿真表明,采用小扰动法分析弹丸脉冲控制弹丸飞行稳定性是可行的.     

履带车辆下长坡液力辅助制动控制策略仿真研究

针对履带车辆下长坡制动过程中不同制动力的分配关系,在液力减速器和整车下坡动力学分析的基础上,研究了基于液力辅助制动的履带车辆下长坡制动控制策略,建立了基于SIMULINK的履带车辆整车动态仿真模型,对液力减速器的持续制动性能和控制策略的有效性进行了仿真．结果表明,车辆下坡持续制动时,适时应用液力减速器,能够有效分流整车制动功率,明显降低机械制动器的工作负荷,满足整车安全恒速下坡的要求．     

ASSESSING RUSSIAN ATTITUDES TOWARD PHASED,DEEP NUCLEAR REDUCTIONS

As the United States and Russia contemplate the next stage of nuclear arms reductions beyond the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, another issue enters the agenda—that of the impact of possible deep reductions on the shape of the global nuclear balance. As the gap between the US/Russian arsenals and the arsenals of “second-tier” nuclear weapon states narrows, the familiar shape of the global balance, which remains, to a large extent, bipolar, is likely to change. The article explores the Russian approach to the relationship between further US-Russian reductions and the prospect of “nuclear multipolarity,” and assesses the relative weight of this issue in Russian arms control policy as well as the views on the two specific regional balances—the one in Europe (including UK and French nuclear weapons) and in Asia (the possible dynamic of the Russian-Chinese nuclear balance).     

NUCLEAR STABILITY AT LOW NUMBERS

Chinese writings on the workings of nuclear stability, deterrence, and coercion are thin and politicized. Nevertheless, it is possible to glean, from direct and inferential evidence, rather pessimistic conclusions regarding Chinese views of nuclear stability at low numbers. While China has been living with low numbers in its own arsenal for decades, today it views missile defense and advanced conventional weapons as the primary threat to nuclear stability. More generally, China views nuclear stability as wedded to political amity. Because none of these would be directly addressed through further US and Russian arsenal reductions, China is unlikely to view such reductions as particularly stabilizing. While there is little in Chinese writing to suggest lower US and Russian numbers would encourage a “race to parity,” there are grounds to worry about China becoming more assertive as it gains confidence in Beijing's own increasingly secure second-strike forces.     

US–Russia relations and the future of arms control: how the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty could restore engagement on nuclear issues

ABSTRACT

Relations between the United States and Russia are in a prolonged downward spiral. Under these circumstances, cooperation on nuclear issues—once a reliable area of engagement even in difficult political environments—has all but completely halted. There are urgent reasons to find a way out of this situation, particularly the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty in 2021. However, seemingly intractable disagreements about noncompliance with the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty and US ballistic-missile defense, compounded by the Ukraine crisis, the conflict in Syria, and the accusations of Russian interference in the US election of 2016, threaten the future of arms control. Against this backdrop, policy makers and practitioners should identify ways to re-engage on nuclear issues now so they can be ready to implement them as soon as feasible. This article considers how the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) could serve as a platform for US–Russia cooperation on nuclear issues when circumstances permit. Taking into account the challenges posed by ongoing US non-ratification, it identifies a menu of CTBT-related activities short of ratification that the two countries could undertake together. It explores how joint work on this issue would advance shared US and Russian interests while helping to create the circumstances necessary for further arms-control work.     

The end of the “INF Treaty” and the US-China military balance

ABSTRACT

Whereas much of the debate about the demise of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has focused on the European context and Russia’s alleged treaty violations, Asia looms large in the minds of proponents of the United States’s immediate withdrawal from the treaty. For many proponents, the fast-changing military balance in Asia and China's conventionally armed missiles constitute a sufficient cause for withdrawal. What does the end of the INF Treaty bode for the US-China military balance? This article argues that, although there are some near-term benefits for the US position in the conventional military balance with China, the advantages offered by prohibited missiles are minor and can be readily substituted by extant capabilities that are compliant with the treaty. Given the negative implications of the end of the INF Treaty for the future of arms control, the costs and benefits of withdrawing from the treaty require further examination; the military balance in Asia is an unpersuasive rationale for withdrawing from an important part of the arms-control architecture.     

基于MDFT框架的海上能源通道航线动态决策建模与仿真

针对常规海上航线决策没有考虑决策选择过程的问题,引入多选择决策场理论（ MDFT）,构建了海上能源通道航线动态决策模型。基于信息完备、信息不确定和特殊情况等三种情景想定,进行了海上能源通道航线规划决策及其实验仿真。结果表明,决策过程受时间压力和信息质量的制约,时间压力会制约决策质量,同时还可能引起“偏好逆转”现象,信息不确定也会导致确定性决策。该模型不仅综合考虑了海上能源通道航线选择时需关注的各类要素,且模型参数可动态调整,进而能合理模拟真实的海上状况和决策过程。     

飞机电磁弹射系统发展及其关键技术

总结论述了美国和英法国家的飞机电磁弹系统工程化应用研制的发展状况,综述了电磁弹射用直线电机的方案选型设计、仿真技术、性能优化和控制方法等方面的关键技术和研究现状,针对电磁弹射技术的发展前景和应用给出了相关建议,为国内电磁弹射相关技术的发展提供了借鉴。     

液动冲压发射系统发射过程仿真分析

为了研究液动冲压发射系统的工作特点,分别建立了该发射系统的主要组件如蓄压器、发射阀、冲压器的数学模型。在此基础上,进行了整个液动冲压发射系统发射过程的仿真计算,并对仿真结果进行了分析。结果表明:所建立的数学模型正确,基本反映了发射过程中的各主要部件的动态特性。这些模型不仅可用于分析液动冲压发射系统的工作特性,还可为该系统的总体论证与关键部件的设计提供理论依据。