基于灰色理论的设备状态趋势预测建模及应用研究

主要研究了利用灰色理论对设备状态进行预测的步骤和方法,通过对设备运行的关键参数进行建模,可以有效地预测设备状态的发展趋势,并分别以降温和保温阶段的轴承供气压力为例对该预测模型进行了验证,通过Matlab对采集的历史数据进行计算,结果表明该预测方法具有数据量少、计算简单、预测准确的特点,在该试验设备的运行状态趋势预测是可行的.     

装备分布式虚拟维修训练仿真负载平衡研究

基于HLA的装备分布式虚拟维修训练过程极易产生仿真节点负载失衡,以往的负载平衡研究多关注资源利用率,仿真运行过程中可能会因节点负载的不均衡进行频繁的负载调度,影响仿真运行效率.针对此问题,以保证仿真节点的高效运行为首要目的,将负载平衡定义为不存在超载节点即为平衡,提出了一种动静结合的复合式负载平衡调度方法.研究了复合式负载平衡系统的体系结构,采用最小连接调度法实现了节点静态负载的粗粒度平衡,引入仿真运行比率分量参数表征负载量值,进而设计了动态负载平衡算法对仿真运行过程进行实时监控和调度.实验结果表明,改进后仿真平衡调度频率明显下降,实现了资源利用率和仿真效率的平衡兼顾,取得了良好的效果.     

Optimal control of noncollaborative servers in two‐stage tandem queueing systems

We consider two‐stage tandem queueing systems with dedicated servers in each station and a flexible server that is trained to serve both stations. We assume no arrivals, exponential service times, and linear holding costs for jobs present in the system. We study the optimal dynamic assignment of servers to jobs assuming a noncollaborative work discipline with idling and preemptions allowed. For larger holding costs in the first station, we show that (i) nonidling policies are optimal and (ii) if the flexible server is not faster than the dedicated servers, the optimal server allocation strategy has a threshold‐type structure. For all other cases, we provide numerical results that support the optimality of threshold‐type policies. Our numerical experiments also indicate that when the flexible server is faster than the dedicated server of the second station, the optimal policy may have counterintuitive properties, which is not the case when a collaborative service discipline is assumed. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 435–446, 2014     

Optimal patrol to uncover threats in time when detection is imperfect

Consider a patrol problem, where a patroller traverses a graph through edges to detect potential attacks at nodes. An attack takes a random amount of time to complete. The patroller takes one time unit to move to and inspect an adjacent node, and will detect an ongoing attack with some probability. If an attack completes before it is detected, a cost is incurred. The attack time distribution, the cost due to a successful attack, and the detection probability all depend on the attack node. The patroller seeks a patrol policy that minimizes the expected cost incurred when, and if, an attack eventually happens. We consider two cases. A random attacker chooses where to attack according to predetermined probabilities, while a strategic attacker chooses where to attack to incur the maximal expected cost. In each case, computing the optimal solution, although possible, quickly becomes intractable for problems of practical sizes. Our main contribution is to develop efficient index policies—based on Lagrangian relaxation methodology, and also on approximate dynamic programming—which typically achieve within 1% of optimality with computation time orders of magnitude less than what is required to compute the optimal policy for problems of practical sizes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 61: 557–576, 2014     

面向网络化防空反导体系的可组合建模框架

当前网络化防空反导体系的理论及其建模仿真工作还处于探索阶段,基于可组合建模框架的思想,设计了指控网、探测网和武器网三网交互的网络化防空反导体系结构概念图,开发了包括体系顶层框架、体系决策框架和数据链接口框架的可组合建模框架,通过单机突防舰队阵地混编群的仿真实验论证了所设计的建模框架的可组合性和合理性,为网络化防空反导体系的建模与效能仿真提供了有力支撑。     

基于模板的军事概念模型描述与设计

首先分析军事概念建模存在的问题,然后提出两个阶段、四个步骤的建模思路,在此基础上通过基于模板的概念模型描述方法,将概念建模区分为实体元模型、动作元模型、关系元模型、属性元模型和数据元模型,通过对上述元模型的建模完成对仿真对象的概念建模。     

面向服务的作战仿真模型组合建模方法

为简化模型组合的实现方式,满足多样化作战仿真对模型服务组合的需求,针对作战仿真模型组合规则复杂、基本服务类型相对单一等特点,提出一种基于事件的服务组合BEWSC（Based-Events Web Services Composition）方法。首先定义一种基于MERA(mission-event-restriction-action)规则化语言,在此基础上,采用过程构造子,按照模块化方法对模型服务的组合方案进行描述,并分别从服务的发布者、服务的请求者和推理过程这三个角度对组合服务的执行流程进行具体分析,解决了服务组合表示困难、描述能力不足、模型匹配差异性大和模型组合有效性低等方面问题。     

动态WTA问题的混沌人工鱼群算法

针对不同作战平台上多个武器单元对一批目标进行射击时的武器目标分配问题,建立了该问题的数学模型。采用混沌人工鱼群算法对动态条件下的武器目标分配问题进行求解,并设计一个实例进行仿真实验。仿真结果表明,在时间约束条件下该算法较遗传算法更具优越性,验证了混沌人工鱼群算法用于动态武器目标分配的有效性。     

《连续系统建模》的计算机辅助学习与考核系统

本文介绍了一个用于《连续系统建模》学习与考核的计算机辅助教学课件的功能和设计原理,重点介绍了系统动力学模型图的知识表达和建模行为的有效性度量的方法。     

论人的防御火灾意识的更新

通过分析人的素质、行为和能动作用 ,揭示人类防御火灾意识偏低的原因 ,指出人类要实现人与自然协调发展 ,减少火灾的侵袭 ,就必须提高人的素质 ,规范人的行为 ,发挥人的主观能动作用。