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Today, many products are designed and manufactured to function for a long period of time before they fail. Determining product reliability is a great challenge to manufacturers of highly reliable products with only a relatively short period of time available for internal life testing. In particular, it may be difficult to determine optimal burn‐in parameters and characterize the residual life distribution. A promising alternative is to use data on a quality characteristic (QC) whose degradation over time can be related to product failure. Typically, product failure corresponds to the first passage time of the degradation path beyond a critical value. If degradation paths can be modeled properly, one can predict failure time and determine the life distribution without actually observing failures. In this paper, we first use a Wiener process to describe the continuous degradation path of the quality characteristic of the product. A Wiener process allows nonconstant variance and nonzero correlation among data collected at different time points. We propose a decision rule for classifying a unit as normal or weak, and give an economic model for determining the optimal termination time and other parameters of a burn‐in test. Next, we propose a method for assessing the product's lifetime distribution of the passed units. The proposed methodologies are all based only on the product's initial observed degradation data. Finally, an example of an electronic product, namely contact image scanner (CIS), is used to illustrate the proposed procedure. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003 相似文献
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Burn‐in is a technique to enhance reliability by eliminating weak items from a population of items having heterogeneous lifetimes. System burn‐in can improve system reliability, but the conditions for system burn‐in to be performed after component burn‐in remain a little understood mathematical challenge. To derive such conditions, we first introduce a general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes, in which the component burn‐in information and assembly problems are related to the prediction of system burn‐in. Many existing system burn‐in models become special cases and two important results are identified. First, heterogeneous system lifetimes can be understood naturally as a consequence of heterogeneous component lifetimes and heterogeneous assembly quality. Second, system burn‐in is effective if assembly quality variation in the components and connections which are arranged in series is greater than a threshold, where the threshold depends on the system structure and component failure rates. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 364–380, 2003. 相似文献
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Modern technology is producing high reliability products. Life testing for such products under normal use condition takes a lot of time to obtain a reasonable number of failures. In this situation a step‐stress procedure is preferred for accelerated life testing. In this paper we assume a Weibull and Lognormal model whose scale parameter depends upon the present level as well as the age at the entry in the present stress level. On the basis of that we propose a parametric model to the life distribution for step‐stress testing and suggest a suitable design to estimate the parameters involved in the model. A simulation study has been done by the proposed model based on maximum likelihood estimation. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003 相似文献
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高超音速导弹气动光学效应研究方法综述 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
气动光学效应是高超音速导弹设计需要解决的关键技术。全面论述了气动光学效应的定量研究方法,包括:小孔径技术、统计方法、随机相位屏方法和涡动力学研究方法,指出了工程上广泛使用的统计方法的适用范围,建议使用大涡模拟方法进行气动光学效应的数值仿真。 相似文献
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微小卫星编队飞行轨道动力学及相对位置保持控制方法 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
微小卫星编队飞行是20世纪90年代中、后期出现的航天新概念,它是通过一组群聚卫星的协同工作完成相应的空间任务,具有广阔的应用前景。对微小卫星编队飞行的轨道动力学建模进行了详细研究,并应用势函数方法推导了用于卫星编队飞行相对位置保持的连续控制律及离散控制律。 相似文献
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一种基于当前统计模型的模糊交互多模型算法 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
研究了模糊交互多模型算法(FIMM)和基于当前统计模型(CS)的自适应滤波算法,提出了一种基于当前统计模型的模糊交互多模型算法(CSFIMM)。该算法克服了模糊交互多模型算法精度较低和当前统计模型自适应滤波器方差调整有限的缺点。通过仿真,对所提出的算法和交互多模型(IMM)算法以及FIMM算法在估计精度和计算量两个方面进行了比较。 相似文献
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