多核贝叶斯优化的模型决策树算法

构造模型决策树时超参数较多,参数组合复杂,利用网格搜索等调参方法将会消耗大量的时间,影响模型性能的提升。提出了一种多核贝叶斯优化的模型决策树算法,该算法为应对不同分类数据特性,采用三种高斯过程建模寻优,利用贝叶斯优化技术,选出最优的参数组合。实验结果表明,所提算法在参数寻优上要优于传统的模型决策树寻优方法,并且能够在迭代次数不多的情况下找到全局最优参数值,在一定程度上提升了算法的分类性能,节省了大量的调参时间。     

分布式异构集群中节点优先级调优算法

节点优先级常用于评价异构集群中节点的性能,因此节点优先级评价指标权重的选择非常重要。采用层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process, AHP)建立了节点优先级评价指标体系,计算得到各指标的初始权重,并使用BP神经网络对初始权重进行优化。训练时,BP网络输入为集群运行中采集的节点实时资源数据,输出为节点的优先级。分析网络训练完成后得到的权重矩阵可以获得各优先级评价指标的优化权重。实验表明,基于AHP和BP的节点优先级评价模型可以更加准确地分析节点性能。相比于Spark默认算法和权重未优化的对照算法,使用调优后的节点优先级可以有效提高集群性能。运行不同工作量的相同负载时,集群平均性能分别提高了16.64%和9.76%;处理相同工作量的不同负载时,集群的平均性能分别提高了12.49%和6.54%。     

Dynamic analysis of a guided projectile during engraving process

The reliability of the electronic components inside a guided projectile is highly affected by the launch dynamics of guided projectile. The engraving process plays a crucial role on determining the ballistic performance and projectile stability. This paper analyzes the dynamic response of a guided projectile during the engraving process. By considering the projectile center of gravity moving during the engraving process, a dynamics model is established with the coupling of interior ballistic equations. The results detail the stress situation of a guided projectile band during its engraving process. Meanwhile, the axial dynamic response of projectile in the several milliseconds following the engraving process is also researched. To further explore how the different performance of the engraving band can affect the dynamics of guided projectile, this paper focuses on these two aspects: (a) the effects caused by the different band geometry; and (b) the effects caused by different band materials. The time domain and frequency domain responses show that the dynamics of the projectile are quite sensitive to the engraving band width. A material with a small modulus of elasticity is more stable than one with a high modulus of elasticity.     

Effect of welding processes and consumables on fatigue crack growth behaviour of armour grade quenched and tempered steel joints

Quenched and Tempered (Q&T) steels are widely used in the construction of military vehicles due to its high strength to weight ratio and high hardness. These steels are prone to hydrogen induced cracking (HIC) in the heat affected zone (HAZ) after welding. The use of austenitic stainless steel (ASS) consumables to weld the above steel was the only available remedy because of higher solubility for hydrogen in austenitic phase. The use of stainless steel consumables for a non-stainless steel base metal is not economical. Hence, alternate consumables for welding Q&T steels and their vulnerability to HIC need to be explored. Recent studies proved that low hydrogen ferritic steel (LHF) consumables can be used to weld Q&T steels, which can give very low hydrogen levels in the weld deposits. The use of ASS and LHF consumables will lead to distinct microstructures in their respective welds. This microstructural heterogeneity will have a drastic influence in the fatigue crack growth resistance of armour grade Q&T steel welds. Hence, in this investigation an attempt has been made to study the influence of welding consumables and welding processes on fatigue crack growth behaviour of armour grade Q&T Steel joints. Shielded metal arc welding (SMAW) and Flux cored arc welding (FCAW) were used for fabrication of joints using ASS and LHF consumables. The joints fabricated by SMAW process using LHF consumable exhibited superior fatigue crack growth resistance than all other joints.     

基于MDFT框架的海上能源通道航线动态决策建模与仿真

针对常规海上航线决策没有考虑决策选择过程的问题,引入多选择决策场理论（ MDFT）,构建了海上能源通道航线动态决策模型。基于信息完备、信息不确定和特殊情况等三种情景想定,进行了海上能源通道航线规划决策及其实验仿真。结果表明,决策过程受时间压力和信息质量的制约,时间压力会制约决策质量,同时还可能引起“偏好逆转”现象,信息不确定也会导致确定性决策。该模型不仅综合考虑了海上能源通道航线选择时需关注的各类要素,且模型参数可动态调整,进而能合理模拟真实的海上状况和决策过程。     

我国警卫工作改进历程考察与思考

在考察我国警卫工作改进历程的基础上,对警卫工作改进进行了深入思考。提出我国警卫工作改进始终坚持“既要保证安全,又不脱离群众”这一主题;始终坚持党委和政府的领导,坚持制度化、规范化建设;体现在路线警卫工作、住地警卫工作和现场警卫工作三个方面。     

运载火箭芯级与助推级分离的数值模拟

采用动态重叠网格方法和双欧法,耦合求解非定常流动控制NS方程和6DOF运动方程,数值模拟运载火箭助推级和芯级的自由分离过程和附加外力作用下的强迫分离过程,并对芯级、助推级分离的主要影响因素进行分析。数值结果与试验结果吻合,表明动态重叠网格方法能正确预测火箭芯级与助推级间复杂的流动现象。根据数值模拟结果,给出助推级在不同分离工况下的分离参数及分离规律。     

A novel gradient approach for optimal design and sensitivity analysis of EWMA control charts

Conventional control charts are often designed to optimize out‐of‐control average run length (ARL), while constraining in‐control ARL to a desired value. The widely employed grid search approach in statistical process control (SPC) is time‐consuming with unsatisfactory accuracy. Although the simulation‐based ARL gradient estimators proposed by Fu and Hu [Manag Sci 45 (1999), 395–413] can alleviate this issue, it still requires a large number of simulation runs to significantly reduce the variance of gradient estimators. This article proposes a novel ARL gradient estimation approach based on integral equation for efficient analysis and design of control charts. Although this article compares with the results of Fu and Hu [Manag Sci 45 (1999), 395–413] based on the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart, the proposed approach has wide applicability as it can generally fit into any control chart with Markovian property under any distributions. It is shown that the proposed method is able to provide a fast, accurate, and easy‐to‐implement algorithm for the design and analysis of EWMA charts, as compared to the simulation‐based gradient estimation method. Moreover, the proposed gradient estimation method facilitates the computation of high‐order derivatives that are valuable in sensitivity analysis. The code is written in Matlab, which is available on request. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 223–237, 2014     

The burglar problem with multiple options

We consider the burglar problem in which a burglar can either retire or choose among different types of burglaries, with each type having its own success probability and reward distribution. Some general structural results are established and, in the case of exponentially distributed reward distributions, a solution technique is presented. The burglar problem's relationship to a stochastic knapsack problem with a random exponentially distributed knapsack capacity is shown. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 359–364, 2014     

舰艇编队防空过程建模及分析

防空作战是大型水面舰艇编队的主要作战样式之一。运用PEPA(性能评价过程代数)方法对舰艇编队防空作战全过程进行有效建模,形式化描述了预警探测、情报传递、命令下达、防空拦截等作战主要过程。建立的PEPA模型具有层次化结构,考虑了要素间相互协作,体现了编队防空作战分布、并发的特点。通过对建立的PEPA模型进行性能指标选择和稳定状态分析,得到了不同因素对编队能力发挥的影响情况,获得了防空作战的基本要素组成,从而提供了一种解决舰艇编队问题的新方法。