Replacing nonidentical vital components to extend system life

We consider a system that depends on a single vital component. If this component fails, the system life will terminate. If the component is replaced before its failure then the system life may be extended; however, there are only a finite number of spare components. In addition, the lifetimes of these spare components are not necessarily identically distributed. We propose a model for scheduling component replacements so as to maximize the expected system survival. We find the counterintuitive result that when comparing components' general lifetime distributions based on stochastic orderings, not even the strongest ordering provides an a priori guarantee of the optimal sequencing of components. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Investment in production resource flexibility: An empirical investigation of methods for planning under uncertainty

We examine several methods for evaluating resource acquisition decisions under uncertainty. Traditional methods may underestimate equipment benefit when part of this benefit comes from decision flexibility. We develop a new, practical method for resource planning under uncertainty, and show that this approach is more accurate than several commonly used methods. We successfully applied our approach to an investment problem faced by a major firm in the aviation information industry. Our recommendations were accepted and resulted in estimated annual savings in excess of $1 million (US). © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

The stochastic single resource service‐provision problem

The service‐provision problem described in this paper comes from an application of distributed processing in telecommunications networks. The objective is to maximize a service provider's profit from offering computational‐based services to customers. The service provider has limited capacity and must choose which of a set of software applications he would like to offer. This can be done dynamically, taking into consideration that demand for the different services is uncertain. The problem is examined in the framework of stochastic integer programming. Approximations and complexity are examined for the case when demand is described by a discrete probability distribution. For the deterministic counterpart, a fully polynomial approximation scheme is known 2 . We show that introduction of stochasticity makes the problem strongly NP‐hard, implying that the existence of such a scheme for the stochastic problem is highly unlikely. For the general case a heuristic with a worst‐case performance ratio that increases in the number of scenarios is presented. Restricting the class of problem instances in a way that many reasonable practical problem instances satisfy allows for the derivation of a heuristic with a constant worst‐case performance ratio. Worst‐case performance analysis of approximation algorithms is classical in the field of combinatorial optimization, but in stochastic programming the authors are not aware of any previous results in this direction. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

A parallel machine replacement model

This paper considers a finite horizon parallel machine replacement problem where a fixed number of machines is in operation at all times. The operating cost for a machine goes up as the machine gets older. An older machine may have to be replaced by a new one when its operating cost becomes too high. There is a fixed order cost associated with the purchase of new machines. Machine purchase prices and salvage values may depend on the period in which they were purchased. The objective is to find a replacement plan that minimizes the total discounted cost over the problem horizon. We believe that the costs in our model are more commonly observed in practice than those previously used in the literature. The paper develops properties of optimal solutions and an efficient forward‐time algorithm to find an optimal replacement plan. A dominance property is developed that further limits the options to be considered, and a simple forecast horizon result is also presented. Future research possibilities are mentioned. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 275–287, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (http://www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10012     

某型小口径高炮动态跟踪系统误差分析

在该型小口径高炮系统的指标中,对于高炮动态射击精度、火控跟踪精度和随动系统精度都是既有随机误差要求,又有系统误差要求.将火控动态跟踪系统误差作为非常重要的考核指标,却与外场测试结果有差别.从动态跟踪系统误差的产生、分类和内涵出发,通过建立动态跟踪数学模型,并结合作图对其原由进行了深刻的分析.     

基于Petri网的近程防空武器射击建模

提出一种扩展时延Petri网,新提出的Petri网与以往高级时延Petri网的不同之处在于它允许个体的个性与共性同样得到考虑。这种方法被用来对装备多跟踪装置、多种对空武器的防空系统对多目标进行射击过程进行建模、分析、模型的正确性在文章最后的仿真中得到了验证。     

A model of supply-chain decisions for resource sharing with an application to ventilator allocation to combat COVID-19

We present a stochastic optimization model for allocating and sharing a critical resource in the case of a pandemic. The demand for different entities peaks at different times, and an initial inventory for a central agency are to be allocated. The entities (states) may share the critical resource with a different state under a risk-averse condition. The model is applied to study the allocation of ventilator inventory in the COVID-19 pandemic by FEMA to different U.S. states. Findings suggest that if less than 60% of the ventilator inventory is available for non-COVID-19 patients, FEMA's stockpile of 20 000 ventilators (as of March 23, 2020) would be nearly adequate to meet the projected needs in slightly above average demand scenarios. However, when more than 75% of the available ventilator inventory must be reserved for non-COVID-19 patients, various degrees of shortfall are expected. In a severe case, where the demand is concentrated in the top-most quartile of the forecast confidence interval and states are not willing to share their stockpile of ventilators, the total shortfall over the planning horizon (until May 31, 2020) is about 232 000 ventilator days, with a peak shortfall of 17 200 ventilators on April 19, 2020. Results are also reported for a worst-case where the demand is at the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval. An important finding of this study is that a central agency (FEMA) can act as a coordinator for sharing critical resources that are in short supply over time to add efficiency in the system. Moreover, through properly managing risk-aversion of different entities (states) additional efficiency can be gained. An additional implication is that ramping up production early in the planning cycle allows to reduce shortfall significantly. An optimal timing of this production ramp-up consideration can be based on a cost-benefit analysis.     

反无人机绳网捕获系统的动力学建模与仿真

针对无人机"黑飞"问题,提出了包含捕获平台地面发射、柔性绳网空中展开抓捕和降落伞回收的反无人机绳网捕获系统方案,建立了全过程动力学模型.并将动力学模型中的平台飞行轨迹模型和绳网展开模型与飞行试验数据进行了对比验证.结果表明,该系统动力学建模与仿真方案可行,对系统工程设计具有指导意义.     

具有吞吐量和时延约束的软件无线电波形部署决策算法

针对当前具有吞吐量和时延约束的软件无线电波形部署决策算法在内存开销方面考虑的不足,提出一个更为通用的波形部署决策系统模型,将波形的处理开销、内存开销和通信带宽开销都纳入到波形部署决策过程中,并设计了一种基于动态规划的波形部署决策算法以最小化波形对平台各种计算资源的占用总和。仿真结果表明,内存对波形部署决策具有重要影响,与未考虑内存开销的解决方案相比,平台支持的平均最大波形数目和平均处理资源利用率均下降40%左右。     

A decomposition heuristic for the twin robots scheduling problem

This article provides an efficient heuristic based on decomposition for the twin robots scheduling problem (TRSP). TRSP concerns two moving robots executing storage and retrieval requests in parallel along a shared pathway. The depots are located at both ends of the line and a dedicated robot is assigned to each of them. While moving goods between their respective depots and some storage locations on the line, noncrossing constraints among robots need to be considered. Our heuristic uses a dynamic programming framework to determine the schedule of one robot while keeping the other one's fixed. It finds near‐optimal solutions even for large problem instances with hundreds of jobs in a short time span. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 62:16–22, 2015