Military Spending,Conflict and External Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa

The damaging economic effects of the debt crises on Africa in the late 1980s encouraged considerable research on the determinants of external debt in developing economies. Although sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) debt was cut by two-thirds by 2008, through two debt relief programmes, debt in the region has since been rising at an increasingly rapid pace. This study provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of external debt in SSA over the period 1960–2016, using dynamic panel methods. It also considers two potentially important factors that have received relatively little attention. One is military spending, rarely considered, despite a number of well-publicised scandals over the procurement of unnecessary and expensive high-tech weapons systems. A second, is the possibility that the countries studied have been involved in conflict. The empirical results point to a positive impact of military spending on external debt, but with some evidence of heterogeneity across the countries. Furthermore, findings indicate that the positive effect of military expenditure on debt becomes more marked in countries that have been affected by conflict. These results imply that policies to improve security and reduce military spending could be beneficial in reducing external debt and, potentially, improving economic performance in the region.     

Designing and pricing menus of extended warranty contracts

Extended warranties provide “piece of mind” to a consumer in that product failures which occur after the base warranty expires are rectified at little or no cost. They also provide an additional source of revenue for manufacturers or third‐party providers, such as retailers or insurance providers, and help cultivate consumer loyalty. In this article, we analyze a number of extended warranty contracts which differ in design, including restrictions on deferrals and renewals. With the use of dynamic programming, we compute the optimal strategy for a consumer with perfect information and determine the optimal pricing policy for the provider given the consumer's risk characterization. We also provide insight into when different contracts should be issued. Finally, we illustrate how profits can be dramatically increased by offering menus of warranty contracts, as opposed to stand alone contracts, with the use of integer programming. Surprisingly, risk‐taking consumers provide the greatest benefit to offering menus. These insights can help a company develop a comprehensive warranty planning strategy for given products or product lines. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

大气层内复合控制拦截弹切换时间的探讨

大气层内拦截弹采用空气动力与燃气动力的复合控制方式是当今世界防空导弹的发展方向之一。复合控制技术的分析研究是当前急需解决的重要问题。在考虑目标机动加速度大小、目标机动时刻以及目标角闪烁的条件下 ,确定了拦截弹的控制方式由空气动力切换到复合控制时的切换时间。     

舰艇编队协同防空武器组织的研究现状与展望

针对舰艇编队防空作战中武器的敏捷协同与优化组织问题,分析了舰艇编队防空武器运用的历史衍变,综述了国内外关于武器组织的概念认知,引入双边匹配决策理论,剖析了舰艇编队协同防空武器组织问题的本质,凝练出1个科学问题、定位了4个关键技术,提出了基于动态双边匹配的舰艇编队协同防空武器组织技术框架,可为网络中心战条件下舰艇编队协同防空武器组织方法研究提供支持。     

A partial characterization of the optimal ordering/rationing policy for a periodic review system with two demand classes and backordering

We consider a finite horizon periodic review, single product inventory system with a fixed setup cost and two stochastic demand classes that differ in their backordering costs. In each period, one must decide whether and how much to order, and how much demand of the lower class should be satisfied. We show that the optimal ordering policy can be characterized as a state dependent (s,S) policy, and the rationing structure is partially obtained based on the subconvexity of the cost function. We then propose a simple heuristic rationing policy, which is easy to implement and close to optimal for intensive numerical examples. We further study the case when the first demand class is deterministic and must be satisfied immediately. We show the optimality of the state dependent (s,S) ordering policy, and obtain additional rationing structural properties. Based on these properties, the optimal ordering and rationing policy for any state can be generated by finding the optimal policy of only a finite set of states, and for each state in this set, the optimal policy is obtained simply by choosing a policy from at most two alternatives. An efficient algorithm is then proposed. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的弹道导弹态势评估模型研究

针对弹道导弹态势评估的特点,分析了弹道导弹的作战过程和弹道导弹主动段作战特点。在此基础上,给出了动态贝叶斯网络用于弹道导弹态势评估的建模过程,建立了基于动态贝叶斯网络的弹道导弹态势评估模型,并依据观测到的数据对模型进行了仿真,结果表明,将动态贝叶斯网络应用于弹道导弹的态势评估模型是可行的,该模型能够对飞行中的弹道导弹态势快速准确作出评估。     

在C#中通过数据库实现树视图无级动态维护

就树视图与数据库的结合实现树视图的无级动态维护提出了一种解决方法 ,进而拓展了树视图的功能 ,使其能够得到更多的使用。     

用动态模拟方法实现C程序输入变量的取值分析

程序输入变量取值范围的确定对于测试数据的选取,尤其对边界值分析,有着直接的指导作用.一般情形下,通过对源程序进行数据流和相关性分析,可实现输入变量的取值分析.但对某些有特殊取值限制要求的表达式,用静态分析方法,难以实现其输入变量的取值分析.为此,采用动态模拟的方法,对有特殊取值限制要求的表达式,进行输入变量的取值分析.实验表明,该方法是行之有效的.     

行进式雷达天线波束方位的实时确定问题

采用"边行进边工作"方式的目的是提高雷达的战时生存能力。雷达天线波束的指向乃由天线相对其平台的旋转(已知)和平台相对大地运动的转角(未知)共同决定。利用曲率和弧长的概念进行研究,提出在雷达行驶路径为已知几何曲线时,平台转角仅与行驶路程有关。只需获取行驶路程,便可确定天线波束的真实方位。     

新型舰炮武器系统的自动检测系统

阐述了某新型舰炮武器系统应用仿真技术、控制技术、网络技术和信息处理技术实现自动检测,以及自动检测系统的组成和工作原理。用内模拟仿真驱动技术,实现了舰炮武器系统全自动工作方式下的点迹提取、航迹建立、目标识别、威胁判断、目标指示、捕获跟踪、求解射击诸元,全系统动态联动精度在线评估,以及在线实时故障检测。为海军新装备的操作、使用和维护提供了有效的技术手段。将提高系统可维性和生命力。