多人多任务动态决策建模的环境

就人的组队如何解决多任务环境中具有不定性情况下分布式资源管理等问题 ,在微机上采用具有音响—图形功能的 Turbo pascal程序语言 ,建立了一个可以控制的实验环境 ,经分析得出 :在此环境中 ,可以模拟、产生 C3分布系统方面基本的决策制作问题 ,且能充分适应于复杂性的逐步引入 ,可用作建立多人多任务动态决策模型的载体 ,开发组队决策的规范—描述理论。     

Optimal nonmyopic gambling strategy for the generalized Kelly criterion

We consider the optimal wagers to be made by a gambler who starts with a given initial wealth. The gambler faces a sequence of two-outcome games, i.e., “win” vs. “lose,” and wishes to maximize the expected value of his terminal utility. It has been shown by Kelly, Bellman, and others that if the terminal utility is of the form log x, where x is the terminal wealth, then the optimal policy is myopic, i.e., the optimal wager is always to bet a constant fraction of the wealth provided that the probability of winning exceeds the probability of losing. In this paper we provide a critique of the simple logarithmic assumption for the utility of terminal wealth and solve the problem with a more general utility function. We show that in the general case, the optimal policy is not myopic, and we provide analytic expressions for optimal wager decisions in terms of the problem parameters. We also provide conditions under which the optimal policy reduces to the simple myopic case. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 639–654, 1997     

战场物资无人机配送研究

战场物资无人机配送是未来信息化战争后勤保障发展的重点方向,是适应未来高强度、快节奏战争的重要手段。对国内外配送无人机的应用与战场物资配送保障的情况进行概述,重点讨论了无人机在配送过程中涉及的任务分配问题。提出了未来战场物资无人机配送的一些重点研究方向,包括战场物资无人化保障理论研究、军民融合式战场物资无人机配送研究、战场物资无人机配送过程一体化研究以及传统车辆与无人机联合配送的研究。     

利用实际飞行数据插值的INS/GNSS组合导航仿真轨迹发生器

针对INS/GNSS组合导航仿真中捷联惯导系统陀螺、加速度计信号高精度模拟问题,提出基于实际飞行数据插值的动态轨迹解析生成仿真算法。对转换到地心惯性坐标系中的载体姿态、位置和重力场数据进行关于时间的样条函数插值,得到载体坐标系下陀螺角速率、角增量以及加速度计比力积分增量的高精度分段解析表达式。使生成的陀螺、加速度计信号符合载体运动学和动力学特性,反映杆臂效应影响,同时与经事后处理的实测GNSS伪距、伪距率等数据特征保持一致。提出四元数约束插值算法,其可满足四元数解析插值时范数为1的约束限制条件。基于某实际无人机飞行数据,验证了所提算法的有效性,其完全满足组合导航动态仿真精度要求。该算法也适用于其他高精度高动态导航系统和刚体运动控制仿真中的角运动、线运动传感器信号模拟。     

采用动网格技术的弹托分离仿真模型

针对一体化弹丸出炮口后弹托由与弹体接触到绕弹托质心做六自由度运动的过程,提出一种基于弹托分段分离运动并采用动网格技术耦合流体控制方程和六自由度运动方程的弹托分离仿真模型。以尾翼稳定脱壳穿甲弹为例,仿真分析不同马赫数下的弹托分离情况,并探讨弹托和弹体气动系数在分离过程中的变化情况。仿真结果表明:弹托分离马赫数越大,分离轨迹越靠近弹体且分离时间越短,但对地分离横向位移越大。通过与试验数据的对比,验证了所提弹托分离仿真模型的准确性。     

水下接触爆炸下液舱前置型防雷舱的动响应分析

为探讨防雷舱结构设计,采用有限元方法对同一防雷舱结构的典型模式和液舱前置模式进行数值仿真计算,通过对典型模式与实验结果的对比,验证了数值计算方法的有效性。着重分析了液舱前置对防雷舱结构动响应过程、失效模式及防护效能的影响,并分析了其形成机制。从结构破坏过程、载荷特性、吸能特性三个方面对比了两种模式的差异,探讨了两种模式防雷舱结构的防护机理,为舰船水下舷侧防护结构的工程设计提供了参考。     

The continuing resonance of the war as risk management perspective for understanding military interventions

In the late 1990s and 2000s, a slew of books and journal articles proposed that a nexus between risk management and warfare was emerging. This article argues that risk management ideas continue to shape recent campaigns against Libya, Islamic State, Syria, and the war on terror from Niger, Yemen to Somalia. It uses existing literature on risk and warfare to examine four key aspects of contemporary interventions. First, the article evaluates the overall strategic context as security concerns shift from terrorism toward renewed great power competition. Second, it re-assesses the risk calculus for military action through the language and grammar of risk invoked by politicians. Third and fourth, it addresses the continuing reliance on air power and the managerial ethos of military operations as important features of war as risk management.     

基于区块链的地学大数据管理

随着地理观测技术、计算机网络和地理信息系统、社会调查统计的迅速发展,具有空间位置的自然环境数据正在急剧增长,上升到大数据级别。而传统的数据库已经无法满足现有地学大数据的规模和增长速度。在资源访问方面,人们更加担心数据安全与隐私保护问题。由于数据交易的双方和交易中介都是互不信任的,这显然不利于数据的共享与流通,将阻碍地学大数据产业的发展。常用地学数据管理系统主要由单一机构进行维护管理,在多方用户参与的情形下,由于无法信任数据库中的数据,每一方用户都需要一个专用数据库,这样不同数据库之间数据的差异将产生繁琐的争议。区块链的到来却给这一问题的解决带来了希望,区块链技术实现了不完全可信网络环境中的可信数据管理,具有去中心化、防篡改、不可抵赖、完整性等特性,从而为解决目前依靠中心或第三方机构存在的高成本低效率和信息安全问题提供了切实的方法。本文从区块链的共识机制、智能合约、身份验证、数据溯源等方面进行阐述,并重点分析区块链如何解决流通和共享数据的问题,让地学大数据真正得以广泛应用。     

战时管理:不能“等到”战时“再”管理

战时管理,在人们的潜意识里就是战争来临时的管理。但是,技术发展到今天,战时管理,等到"战时再管理",已难以实现"管为战"的应有目的。围绕"作战发起实时化趋势,战时管理零起点进入,管理能力岂会凭空而降?首战即决战,作战‘一锤子买卖’使得战时来不及管理,战斗就已结束;战时管理‘平时化’位移,平时就实战化管理,战时才能平战零距离对接"三个方面进行了阐述。     

The Serbian defence institution: the need for clear policy guidance to improve the Serbian defence planning,management, and command processes

ABSTRACT

The uncritical layering of western liberal defence governance norms and concepts on top of existing legacy concepts has impeded achieving coherent military capabilities and capacities when Serbia’s political and military leadership tried to reform the defence system using Western benchmarking principles and Western countries’ best practices. The process of this change has been more valuable than its actual output, as defined by increased capabilities. Such outcomes should be reflective of policy guidance, and can be thought of as closing the trinity loop of a defence planning system: plans, money and execution. This article addresses two key functional areas of the Serbian defence institution. First, it assesses the current state of defence planning to discern its strengths and weaknesses to ascertain if plans are tied to financial decision-making. Second, a full examination of current Serbian defence management is conducted to discern whether weaknesses exist that distract from producing operational capabilities. Both areas are analyzed thoroughly and some solutions for change are proposed. Also, the article analyzes the appearance of two negative phenomena in the planning process – economization and managerialism.