On efficient algorithms for finding efficient salvo policies

We consider the salvo policy problem, in which there are k moments, called salvos, at which we can fire multiple missiles simultaneously at an incoming object. Each salvo is characterized by a probability p_i: the hit probability of a single missile. After each salvo, we can assess whether the incoming object is still active. If it is, we fire the missiles assigned to the next salvo. In the salvo policy problem, the goal is to assign at most n missiles to salvos in order to minimize the expected number of missiles used. We consider three problem versions. In Gould's version, we have to assign all n missiles to salvos. In the Big Bomb version, a cost of B is incurred when all salvo's are unsuccessful. Finally, we consider the Quota version in which the kill probability should exceed some quota Q. We discuss the computational complexity and the approximability of these problem versions. In particular, we show that Gould's version and the Big Bomb version admit pseudopolynomial time exact algorithms and fully polynomial time approximation schemes. We also present an iterative approximation algorithm for the Quota version, and show that a related problem is NP-complete.     

面向作战任务的最小风险传感器调度方法

基于风险理论提出一种面向不同目标探测任务的传感器调度方法。将主动传感器辐射被截获风险和目标探测风险结合起来,建立一般目标探测框架下的传感器最小风险调度模型。分目标跟踪、目标识别和目标威胁等级评估三种情况将传感器最小风险调度模型具体化,给出不同情况下目标探测风险值的计算方法。针对模型的求解提出一种基于混沌思想、反向学习和双向轮盘赌的改进人工蜂群算法。通过仿真实验证明了模型的可行性和算法的有效性。     

Application of Markov renewal theory and semi-Markov decision processes in maintenance modeling and optimization of multi-unit systems

In this paper, a condition-based maintenance model for a multi-unit production system is proposed and analyzed using Markov renewal theory. The units of the system are subject to gradual deterioration, and the gradual deterioration process of each unit is described by a three-state continuous time homogeneous Markov chain with two working states and a failure state. The production rate of the system is influenced by the deterioration process and the demand is constant. The states of the units are observable through regular inspections and the decision to perform maintenance depends on the number of units in each state. The objective is to obtain the steady-state characteristics and the formula for the long-run average cost for the controlled system. The optimal policy is obtained using a dynamic programming algorithm. The result is validated using a semi-Markov decision process formulation and the policy iteration algorithm. Moreover, an analytical expression is obtained for the calculation of the mean time to initiate maintenance using the first passage time theory.     

基于在线学习的频谱感知次序策略*

认知无线电允许次级用户在频谱没有被主用户使用时动态地接入频谱进行数据传输。动态频谱接入是解决无线电频谱资源短缺和使用效率低下问题的有效方案,而频谱感知是实现动态频谱接入的关键挑战之一。次级用户的感知能力有限,为了快速找到频谱空闲概率最大的频段从而获得更多的频谱接入机会,研究了频谱感知次序问题。考虑到频谱空闲概率会随时间变化且对次级用户不可知,提出了一个在线学习框架,把频谱感知次序问题规约成经典多摇臂赌博机问题,并利用在线学习方法——满意折现汤普森抽样算法(satisficing discounted Thompson sampling)处理优化问题。仿真结果表明,和其他算法相比,所提算法可获得更多的频谱接入机会并且能够跟踪频谱空闲概率的变化。     

Sensor radiation interception risk control in target tracking

This paper is mainly on the problem of radiation interception risk control in sensor network for target tracking. Firstly, the sensor radiation interception risk is defined as the product of the interception probability and the cost caused by the interception. Secondly, the radiation interception probability model and cost model are established, based on which the calculation method of interception risk can be obtained. Thirdly, a sensor scheduling model of radiation risk control is established, taking the minimum interception risk as the objective function. Then the Hungarian algorithm is proposed to obtain sensor scheduling scheme. Finally, simulation experiments are mad to prove the effectiveness of the methods proposed in this paper, which shows that compared with the sensor radiation interception probability control method, the interception risk control method can keep the sensor scheduling scheme in low risk as well as protect sensors of importance in the sensor network.     

Military Spending,Conflict and External Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa

The damaging economic effects of the debt crises on Africa in the late 1980s encouraged considerable research on the determinants of external debt in developing economies. Although sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) debt was cut by two-thirds by 2008, through two debt relief programmes, debt in the region has since been rising at an increasingly rapid pace. This study provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of external debt in SSA over the period 1960–2016, using dynamic panel methods. It also considers two potentially important factors that have received relatively little attention. One is military spending, rarely considered, despite a number of well-publicised scandals over the procurement of unnecessary and expensive high-tech weapons systems. A second, is the possibility that the countries studied have been involved in conflict. The empirical results point to a positive impact of military spending on external debt, but with some evidence of heterogeneity across the countries. Furthermore, findings indicate that the positive effect of military expenditure on debt becomes more marked in countries that have been affected by conflict. These results imply that policies to improve security and reduce military spending could be beneficial in reducing external debt and, potentially, improving economic performance in the region.     

Dynamic institutionalization: the foundations of Japan’s radioactive problem

Many have suggested that the true purpose behind Japan’s development of a closed nuclear-fuel cycle is to maintain the technical potential to develop nuclear weapons. However, closer examination of the development of Japan’s nuclear industry shows that, although Japan possesses advanced nuclear technologies, there has been no deliberate strategy to create a nuclear-weapon option. There is no “nuclear hedge.” To illustrate this point, this article presents a framework called “dynamic institutionalization” to explain the origins of Japan’s nuclear policies and the different sets of institutionalized pressures and constraints that have perpetuated these policies over time. Japan’s continued development of closed fuel-cycle technologies is primarily driven by domestic politics and the lack of a permanent spent-fuel management solution. On the other hand, Japan’s institutionalized nuclear forbearance is driven by the calculation that, as long as US extended deterrence remains credible, Japan’s security is best guaranteed through reliance on the US nuclear umbrella. By analytically untangling the policy of closed fuel-cycle development from the rationale for nuclear forbearance, this article provides a more nuanced view of the relationships between the domestic and international variables shaping Japan’s nuclear policies.     

卫星导航信号无模糊抗多径码相关参考波形设计技术

针对目前卫星导航接收机码环多径抑制技术在二进制偏移副载波类信号下鉴别曲线可能出现多个稳定跟踪位置,导致接收机存在伪距测量的系统性误差的问题,提出最优鉴别曲线设计技术,采用奇异值优化的最小二乘方法,设计无多余跟踪点的本地码相关参考波形。从多径误差包络和跟踪精度两方面,对基于最优鉴别曲线的二进制偏移副载波信号码相关参考波形的设计性能进行验证评估。仿真结果表明：该方法可实现二进制偏移副载波信号在有限接收带宽下的无模糊鉴别曲线设计。以前端带宽为8.184 MHz时的BOC(1,1)信号为例,设计的码相关参考波形相比W2波形,多径误差包络面积增加了61.8%,而跟踪精度提高了4~5 dB。     

动力翼伞风扰补偿高度控制方法

外界风场是影响翼伞高度跟踪精度的最主要扰动因素。针对该问题,建立了动力翼伞的八自由度模型,并在传统自抗扰控制的基础上,设计一种基于风场前馈补偿的改进抗扰控制器,对外界的风场干扰进行针对性补偿,实现翼伞系统的高度跟踪控制。在通过仿真实验对控制器进行初步验证的基础上,进行了翼伞系统的实际飞行实验。在实际飞行环境下,仿真中所调节的控制器参数可直接应用于实际飞行实验,翼伞系统的平均高度跟踪误差在2.5 m以内,证明所设计的控制器存在一定的实际应用价值。     

Natural gas storage valuation and optimization: A real options application

In this article, we present an algorithm for the valuation and optimal operation of natural gas storage facilities. Real options theory is used to derive nonlinear partial‐integro‐differential equations (PIDEs), the solution of which give both valuation and optimal operating strategies for these facilities. The equations are designed to incorporate a wide class of spot price models that can exhibit the same time‐dependent, mean‐reverting dynamics, and price spikes as those observed in most energy markets. Particular attention is paid to the operational characteristics of real storage units. These characteristics include working gas capacities, variable deliverability and injection rates, and cycling limitations. We illustrate the model with a numerical example of a salt cavern storage facility that clearly shows how a gas storage facility is like a financial straddle with both put and call properties. Depending on the amount of gas in storage the relative influence of the put and call components vary. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009