Damage functions and estimates of fratricide and collateral damage

There are multiple damage functions in the literature to estimate the probability that a single weapon detonation destroys a point target. This paper addresses differences in the tails of four of the more popular damage functions. These four cover the asymptotic tail behaviors of all monotonically decreasing damage functions with well‐behaved hazard functions. The differences in estimates of probability of kill are quite dramatic for large aim‐point offsets. This is particularly important when balancing the number of threats that can be engaged with the chances of fratricide and collateral damage. In general, analysts substituting one damage function for another may badly estimate kill probabilities in offset‐aiming, which could result in poor doctrine. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 306–321, 2003.     

To free or not to free (ride): a comparative analysis of the NATO burden-sharing in the Czech Republic and Lithuania

ABSTRACT

The recent rise in the defence budgets among the NATO members reawakens the free-riding dilemma. This article provides an analysis of the defence spending of two new member states, the Czech Republic and Lithuania. Based on the free-riding theory, we explain why some of the new NATO members decide to increase their defence budgets (Lithuania), and others do not (Czech Republic). In contrast to the majority of works which focus either on the US as the biggest spender or on the “old” members of the Alliance, we explain under what circumstances some of the small European states who became new NATO members started to increase their defence budgets even though they do not have to, and the literature suggests that free-riding is easier. In the process, we identify three crucial factors that in?uence the decision-making process in this regard: the level of threat perception, economic situation, and the US pressure.     

科技军民融合政策制度

科技军民融合政策制度是推动军民科技协同创新向纵深发展的基本保障和环境条件。分析了我国科技军民融合政策与管理制度的内涵、分类和组成,调研了我国科技领域军民融合有关政策现状及最新试点情况,分析了当前我国科技军民融合政策制度的缺陷点、薄弱环节,研究了国外科技有关的军民融合政策体系构建的规律及启示,提出了我国科技军民融合政策制度建设的基本思路、组织框架、建设重点和推进措施,以为我国科技军民融合政策的制定提供理论保障和决策依据。     

论高校“形势与政策”课程建设

本文对“形势与政策”课的基本任务、基本特点进行了分析,并就如何加强“形势与政策”课程建设问题进行了探讨。     

基于OWA算子的军队院校物资采购招投标管理研究

针对军队院校物资采购招投标管理问题,文中分析了军队院校物资采购招投标的特点,研究了基于合同的谈判机制;针对评标过程中,其所评指标中存在定量指标和定性指标的特点,提出一种基于OWA算子和语言OWA算子的综合多属性群决策方法,实现了招投标管理中的评标、定标。最后,通过实例说明了该方法的有效性及合理性。     

Theories of Non-Balancing and Russia’s Foreign Policy

The beginning of the twenty-first century has witnessed the emergence of balancing responses to the US hegemony, among which Russia’s foreign policies stand out as corresponding to what is understood as ‘hard balancing.’ Why is the United States being balanced against? This paper categorizes the existing theories of non-balancing into six conditions that together guarantee the absence of balancing and demonstrates that the current unipolar system can satisfy only one of them. This eases the systemic constraints and makes balancing possible. The paper then presents three cases of balancing with reference to President Putin’s foreign policy. It argues that even though in terms of relative military capabilities unipolarity still holds, the emergence of counter-hegemonic balancing is indicative of important changes in the nature of post-Cold War American domination.     

Small footprint,small payoff: The military effectiveness of security force assistance

After 15 years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, many now see ‘small-footprint’ security force assistance (SFA) – training, advising and equipping allied militaries – as an alternative to large US ground-force commitments. Yet, its actual military efficacy has been little studied. This paper seeks to fill this gap. We find important limitations on SFA’s military utility, stemming from agency problems arising from systematic interest misalignment between the US and its typical partners. SFA’s achievable upper bound is modest and attainable only if US policy is intrusive and conditional, which it rarely is. For SFA, small footprints will usually mean small payoffs.     

The case for Bush revisionism: Reevaluating the legacy of America’s 43rd president

This article reassesses the foreign policy legacy of George W. Bush in light of the emerging historical record of his administration. We conclude that, whereas Bush’s foreign policy was in widespread disrepute when he left office in 2009, that reputation is likely to improve – perhaps significantly – in the coming years. We identify six particular arguments that lend credence to an emerging ‘Bush revisionism.’ To be clear, we do not necessarily argue that the balance sheet on Bush’s foreign policy was positive, but the arguments presented here are likely to generate a more sympathetic and favorable historical assessment of Bush’s presidency over time.     

韩国反导政策:调整、原因及影响

韩国自20世纪90年代起开始考虑反导系统的构建以来,其反导政策经历了"明确反对加入美国反导体系,自主构建韩国型导弹防御系统"到"强化韩美、韩美日反导合作,谋求实质上融入美国反导体系"的显著调整与变化。韩国反导政策的演变与朝鲜核、导威胁的与日俱增、韩国自身反导能力的不足及美国的极力推动等因素密不可分。当前,韩国开始部署"萨德"末段高空区域反导系统,韩美反导合作日益深入,并向韩美日三边合作拓展,且取得了实质性的进展。韩国强化与美、日的反导联合,在军事、外交、安全方面引发了广泛影响。     

基于共词分析的国内语言规划与政策研究现状分析

本文以中国学术期刊网收录的1637篇文献记录为分析对象,利用聚类分析、战略坐标分析和社会网络分析等方法,对国内语言规划与政策领域的主要研究方向、发展状态和核心作者群进行分析。研究结果表明,国内语言规划与政策研究主要涉及八个方向:少数民族语言研究、官方语言研究、语言态度研究、推广普通话研究、方言研究、外语研究、语言问题研究、语言文字规范研究。其中,少数民族语言研究、官方语言研究和方言研究处于领域核心且发展比较成熟。推广普通话研究也是领域关注的核心问题,但目前发展尚不成熟。相比之下,语言态度研究、外语研究、语言文字规范研究和语言问题研究相对处于领域边缘且尚不够成熟。围绕各个研究方向均已形成了较稳定的杰出作者群体,多数学者都反映出"多主题跟进、单主题深入"的研究模式。