复杂系统故障安全风险评价方法

复杂系统的安全风险涉及面广、影响因素多,因此需要系统的、可操作的方法来指导安全风险的评价过程。在系统的各类安全风险中,故障安全风险是由各种故障导致系统发生事故的风险,是最常见的系统安全问题,因此针对复杂系统的故障安全风险评价开展研究。复杂系统故障安全风险评价需要明确的评价参数和评价方法的支持,为此提出了复杂系统故障安全风险评价的流程、分层次的评价参数体系及评价方法,并通过示例来具体说明故障安全风险的评价过程,为解决复杂系统的故障安全风险评价问题提出了可行的思路。     

结构方程模型参数估计的GME方法

提出应用广义最大熵的方法对结构方程模型的参数进行估计,该方法能够处理有限的或者不完全数据。为了验证广义最大熵方法在估计结构方程模型参数时的性能,采用了一个应用于美国顾客满意指数(ACSI)的结构方程模型生成仿真数据,仿真结果表明,与PLS相比,GME方法具有更高的拟合精度和较低的预测误差,在样本数据较少时,表现更为明显。     

Institutional parameters that condition farmer–herder conflicts in Tivland of Benue State,Nigeria

ABSTRACT

This conceptual review examines institutional parameters that underpin farmer–herder conflicts in Tivland of Benue State, Nigeria. Anchored on the theory of New Institutionalism, it argues that tensions and conflicts between Tiv-farmers and the Fulani-herdsmen is occasioned largely by the disarticulation of the traditional institutional norms/rules of interaction by formal political institutions expressed in land use laws, West African sub-regional protocol, human rights provision of the Nigerian constitution and the Benue State law on anti-grazing. In these contrasting institutional forms, the formal political institution is prioritised by the state while farmers and herders are divided about the institutional basis of their coexistence. Farmers who host the herdsmen demonstrate preference for traditional norms of land ownership and control while the herdsmen incline towards new political/legal instruments which they interpret, purports to give them access to grazing lands and hence an alibi for rejecting institutions that contradict their claim to access spaces for pastoralism. Thus, persisting claims to the exercise of rights to freedom of movement and access to grazing land as opposed to claims to traditional rights of ownership and control of ancestral lands explain the origin and continuity of the farmer–herder conflicts in Benue state, Nigeria.