Buy now,pay later: American military intervention and the strategic cost paradox

This paper explores the notion that US efforts to evade the political costs of war paradoxically contribute to the subsequent exacerbation of costs over time. Leaders seek to purchase political capital in the short term by limiting the costs and requirements of military operations, but in doing so cause strategic and political liabilities to mount in the long run. While identification of such behaviour is not new, insufficient attention has been devoted to explaining its causes, dynamics, and manifestations in relation to key decisions on and in war. Evidence derived from studies of recent American discretionary campaigns is analysed to advance an argument with respect to this pattern of self-defeating strategic behaviour.     

大数据视角下的心理战效果评估

心理战效果评估是对心理战对敌毁伤效能的评估,是战争各方都很关注的重点领域,也一直是困扰心理战研究者的难题,有效评估心理战的效果对心理战过程形成完整闭锁回路、确定心理战实施重点方向和促进心理战战略战术手段的发展有着至关重要的作用。目前,对心理战效果评估的研究已取得了一系列学术成果,为效果评估的实施和实际操作提供了强有力的理论支撑,但现有研究多为指标体系建立等理论的提出和界定,缺少实际操作性的思路,本文主要从大数据的视角来探究心理战效果评估,并尝试从大数据技术的应用角度阐述大数据和心理战效果评估的融合。      

基于作战仿真的指令分析研究

分析研究的主要内容是基于作战仿真的各种指挥指令,比较了实际军用文书与仿真指令之间存在的异同,分析了作战仿真系统中指令的类型以及内容结构,列举典型真实军事命令语言,进行便于仿真系统使用的格式化,重点论述实际军事命令等文书在作战仿真系统中如何被准确、高效地识别与运用,提出了两个适用于作战仿真系统的指令格式——基本指令格式和拓展指令格式,并归纳出指令格式的回字架构,为仿真指令在仿真系统中的应用提供支撑。     

信息战建模的分析与探讨

通过对信息战建模的分析与总结,指出了一个完善的信息战建模方法应具备的基本功能;给出了这种建模方法的结构流图,并分析了结构流图的构成.该方法建立的信息战模型,能有效地识别信息战的效果,对信息战的理论发展和具体实施都有较重要的指导作用.     

基于电子报文分发系统的网络通信程序设计

介绍了通信框架的构建,以及在通信框架的基础上,设计基于电子报文分发系统的多渠道通信应用程序,该程序具有良好的报文收发及通信管理功能。     

现代武装直升机航空电子系统技术发展述评

概述了发展现代军用直升机航空电子系统的必要性,简要论述了直升机航空电子系统的模块化设计思想,以宝石柱和宝石台两大项目为例介绍了美国在发展模块化航空电子系统研究中所走过和正在走的道路,并谈到了欧洲各国及南非的发展概况。从几项关键技术入手比较系统地研究了有关今后发展中的技术走向问题。     

连续信息空间中的信息泄漏问题研究

在联邦式作战仿真平台中,互相通信的主体在进行通信的同时还需要保护其私有的信息。讨论了基于线性方程组“无穷解”条件下的连续信息空间的信息泄漏和保护问题,包括该模型的基本特性和防止泄漏的方法,指出了存在信息的部分泄漏问题,并给出了检测部分泄漏的方法,为提高计算性能,可指定检测子空间,最后,讨论了信息动态改变对信息泄漏的影响。     

电子战对地空导弹拦截行动影响分析

基于地空导弹(红方)对空中编队(蓝方)的拦截过程中的薄弱环节以及蓝方对红方实施的电子战措施的分析,对蓝方实施的电子战对红方拦截行动的影响进行了定量评估,得出蓝方突防概率与电子战综合作战效能之间的函数关系。仿真结果表明,对地空导弹拦截的每一环节都可以有效地实施电子战,削弱地空导弹的拦截能力。     

Terrorism as Method in Nepali Maoist Insurgency, 1996–2016

During the period 1996–2006, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) waged overt people’s war to seize state power and institute a new order that realized the party’s understanding of ‘New Democracy’ as posited by Mao Tse-tung. Contextual shifts led to a crucial strategic turning point in September 2005, when the Maoists agreed to a united front with estranged legal parties to oust the monarchy and establish a republic. Though touted as acceptance of political reintegration, the move was tactical rather than strategic. The party had no intention of supporting a parliamentary version of democracy and thus, 2006–2016, engaged in a covert effort to seize power. Central to this effort was the paramilitary Young Communist League (YCL), the members of which responded to inflammatory party verbiage and exhortations with attacks upon rival political actors. These attacks, academically and legally, were terrorism and offered a salient illustration of intra-state unrestricted warfare. Ultimately, organizational, national, and regional circumstances caused the main Maoist movement to move decisively away from its covert approach. By that time, however, radical splinters had embraced the use of terrorism against rival political actors, creating a situation whereby local politics is yet a dangerous endeavor in certain areas and at certain times.     

基于贝叶斯网络的作战目标评估

在作战指挥决策活动的筹划阶段,对敌体系要害和关键点的分析,当前尚未形成系统方法。针对此问题,利用贝叶斯网络在非精确知识表达与推理领域的优势,提出了综合考虑目标价值、打击难度、打击效果等因素的作战目标评估模型。根据判别贝叶斯网络分类器性能优于生成贝叶斯网络分类器的特点,在经相关领域专家论证的样本数据集的基础上,采取梯度下降法训练得出评估模型各结点条件概率分布。最后,利用Netica仿真软件,经样本数据测试,证明了作战目标评估模型的合理性。