‘A Time of War’: contextual and organisational dimensions in the construction of combat motivation in the IDF

This paper explores the construction of combat motivation in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), arguing that although Israeli society at large is in a ‘Post Heroic’ era, the ‘Heroic Spirit’ is revealed during emergencies. A total of 1535 questionnaires were administered among combat soldiers during large-scale operations fought during national emergency and during small-scale routine operations. The results reveal differences in the construction of combat motivation typical for emergency vs. routine, as well as for reserves vs. regular units. These results indicate that the Post Heroic era is a condition that could be shifted according to cultural, organisational and individual determinants. This paper discusses the roots of these constructions and their implications on the theory of combat motivation and combat experience.     

A usable past: a contemporary approach to history for the Western profession of arms

The most effective way for the Western profession of arms to use history is to disavow the purism and narrow specialisation of today’s academia in favour of developing a contemporary approach to the subject. The latter aims to foster a range of applied diagnostic skills that transcend the temporal dimensions of past, present, and future. A contemporary approach to history for military professionals emphasises the use of inter-disciplinary war studies to enhance policy relevance. In any defense and security organisation, history must be usable in the sense of providing cognitive and interpretative skills for probing relationships between possibility and actuality, between experience and expectation, and between singularity and repetition. Using history to examine such dialectical interconnections is particularly valuable when military establishments confront their essential task of analyzing emerging trends in the future of war.     

自动化武器的发展及对未来战争的影响

在信息技术和生命技术革命的双重影响下,人工智能发展突飞猛进,剧烈改变着现代军事技术发展方向。战争形态由信息化逐步向智能化转变。自动化武器作为智能化装备重要的组成部分,其发展经历了三级进阶,愈发趋向人机一体和全自主化方向改变。这种发展趋势对引领未来战争产生重要而深远的影响。伴随着武器无人化、智能化、自主化的发展趋向,如何有效研发、利用、管控自动化武器成为未来无人化战争的重要议题。同时世界各国对自动化武器的研发部署也加剧了国际军控的紧张,特别是致命性自主武器的出现将有可能对战争伦理和法律构成前所未有的挑战,这将成为国际社会必须认真审视的问题。     

基于兰彻斯特型方程的网络攻防行动分析

互联网的高速发展在带来社会发展与文明进步的同时,也让世界对网络更加依赖,随之而来的网络空间军备竞赛、网络犯罪和网络恐怖主义,使网络空间的攻防行动变得愈加频繁,网络空间安全形势愈发严峻。本文利用兰彻斯特型方程建立网络攻防模型来分析网络攻防行动,证明网络攻防行动是非对称的作战手段和新时代的游击战争,并得出对我国网络空间国防力量建设的启示。      

智能化作战及军队战略推进与发展

未来智能化战争将是基于物联网络信息系统,使用智能化武器装备及相应作战方法,在陆、海、空、天、电、网及认知领域进行的一体化战争。本文在分析智能化作战的内涵有机理基础上,探讨了美军未来智能化作战构想、实施及影响,重点提出了应对未来知能化作战,加强我军战略推进与发展的对策。     

The ‘first’ surge: the repulse of the Easter Invasion in South Vietnam, 1972 – implications for Iraq and Afghanistan

In a military intervention, do surges work? I compare the failed ‘surge’ in Vietnam, the repulse of the Easter Invasion in 1972, as a means of assessing the more ambiguous surges in Iraq and Afghanistan. I identify four features of a surge for this analysis: the military dimensions and strategy of the surging forces, the military capabilities of the host forces, the political vitality and will of the host country, and the political commitment in the domestic politics of the intervener. I find that the last feature is the most critical; and, in all three surges, the American political commitment was lacking.     

对RWR/ESM系统中象限判别概率的研究

随着现代战场电磁环境日趋复杂,辐射源不断增多,脉冲丢失成为机载RWR/ESM系统的一个严重问题。在机载RWR/ESM系统各射频前端通道发生脉冲交叠的基础上,分析了机载RWR/ESM系统测向环节在象限判别过程中的脉冲丢失概率,推导出脉冲象限判别概率的工程估算公式。最后通过仿真验证了机载RWR/ESM系统象限判别过程中,脉冲的象限鉴别正确概率与其输入脉冲密度之间的关系。     

基于可用度的电子设备告警系统检查策略研究

针对电子设备告警系统故障具有隐蔽性的特点,考虑检查不完善的因素,运用延迟时间概念,以系统期望可用度最大为优化目标,建立了电子设备隐蔽功能故障检查优化模型。提出了优化检查间隔期的算法,并通过实际案例验证了模型的有效性。     

一种改进的电子情报分析模型

电子情报的分析处理,对提高电子对抗作战效能意义重大。综合运用聚类算法和分类算法构建了一种改进的电子情报分析模型。该模型首先通过基于粗糙集改进的k-means算法完成对记录数据库中雷达信号的聚类分选,选取聚类中心信号表征此类信号;再采用粗糙集提取有效的最优规则并用于聚类中心脉冲识别,从而分选出已知信号和未知信号;未知信号确定其特性后添加到已知威胁雷达数据库。通过仿真,验证了该模型的适用性和有效性。     

基于改进加权P ageRank的电子目标重要度评估方法

目标重要度评估是电子目标分析的重要内容,将电子目标群体抽象成复杂网络,可以通过对其网络特性的挖掘,从整体上对电子目标在敌方电子信息系统中的重要度进行评估,但传统基于网络结构的目标重要度评估指标具有片面性,难以对处于关键链路之上的重要节点进行挖掘,针对这一问题,将Pagerank算法与中间中心度指标进行整合,提出电子目标重要度评估算法BCIW PageRank,介绍了基于该算法的电子目标重要度评估流程,并利用模拟侦察数据对其进行了仿真分析。