基于信息-决策影响因素的兰彻斯特作战模型?

为有效评估信息因素和决策因素对现代作战进程的影响,改进了传统的兰彻斯特方程作战模型,通过引入信息获取能力指数和筹划决策能力指数,建立了基于信息-决策影响因素的兰彻斯特作战模型,并分3种假设情况进行了仿真。仿真结果表明,该作战模型一定程度上反映了信息因素和决策因素对作战的影响,体现了现代作战的基本致胜机理。     

Advancing “Defence-in-depth”: intelligence and systems dynamics

This article aims to encourage the fostering of more systems thinking, and its greater exploitation, within the domain of contemporary intelligence. With particular focus on “micro systems thinking” and with reference to key intelligence processes, such as intelligence analysis, the utility of many systems dynamics within the intelligence context seeks to be further revealed. Through their greater collective harnessing, including up to “System of Systems” (“SoS”) dynamics, and promoting all that they can offer, more sophisticated overarching operational-to-strategic/policy “ends,” notably that of “defence-in-depth,” can be viably further advanced in a sustainable manner into the future. Arguably, a much-needed transformative impact on contemporary intelligence can also be increasingly realised through comprehensively engaging in and with more systems and SoS thinking. Aiding civil protection tasks, crisis management, emergency planners, and civil contingency practitioners likewise gain.     

Model parameter estimation and residual life prediction for a partially observable failing system

We consider a partially observable degrading system subject to condition monitoring and random failure. The system's condition is categorized into one of three states: a healthy state, a warning state, and a failure state. Only the failure state is observable. While the system is operational, vector data that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at regular sampling epochs. The state process evolution follows a hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) and Erlang distribution is used for modeling the system's sojourn time in each of its operational states. The Expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the state and observation parameters of the HSMM. Explicit formulas for several important quantities for the system residual life estimation such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived in terms of the posterior probability that the system is in the warning state. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the estimation procedure and failure prediction method. A comparison results with hidden Markov modeling are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 190–205, 2015     

基于χ~2检验的惯性/卫星紧耦合系统故障检测与隔离方法

研究了一种基于χ~2检验的惯性/卫星紧耦合系统故障检测与隔离方法,该方法可利用故障检测函数自动识别单个卫导故障,并实时剔除故障星重构观测信息序列,从而避免了对紧耦合系统的影响。构建数字化仿真环境对所研究的故障检测与隔离方法进行了仿真,仿真结果表明,该方法可在卫星发生故障时及时检测并隔离故障星,并自动实现观测信息重构,保证了紧耦合系统的精度和完好性。     

基于体系结构方法的机群对海作战活动分析

机群综合电子信息系统在高技术局部战争环境中可以为机群协同作战提供信息能力与优势,对机群作战活动的分析是设计其体系结构的基础,因此对机群在作战中的活动进行分析有重要意义。针对海军航空兵机群的对海作战,利用体系结构设计工具,在DoD AF V1.0框架下分析了机群对海作战活动,并在此基础上开发了相关作战视图。     

基于模糊AHP的水面舰艇编队攻潜武器分配

针对水面舰艇编队攻潜武器分配问题,利用模糊AHP方法,通过构建攻潜武器分配模型,建立模糊评判矩阵,确定评价因素的权重,制定最优攻击方案,对反潜火力分配提供决策辅助,并进行了实例分析,得到了从命中概率、攻击安全、攻击时效、组织指挥等方面综合模糊评判进行攻潜武器分配的方法。     

基于流体体积模型的双层油罐渗漏数值模拟

为了对钢制强化玻璃纤维制双层油罐贯通间隙空间进行优化设计,针对目前市场上主流双层油罐间隙空间的结构特点,应用计算流体力学数值模拟软件CFD,基于多相流流体体积模型,对双层油罐内罐发生渗漏后渗漏液体在贯通间隙空间的流动特点进行模拟计算。计算结果表明：液体在间隙空间流动时,其表面力对流动的影响占支配作用,体积力的作用可以忽略;当间隙垫片之间的距离≥0.8 mm,其对液体流动的阻碍作用开始减弱;主流双层油罐间隙空间的设计不合理,无法将油罐渗漏液体尽快引流到间隙底部。最后,根据液体在间隙空间的流动特点,对双层油罐间隙空间的设计提出了改进措施。     

CS模型下IMM-PF算法在机动目标跟踪中的应用

为了解决机动目标定位跟踪问题,提出了一种基于CS(current statistical)模型的交互式多模型粒子滤波算法.在交互式多模型粒子滤波算法的基础上,计算CS模型的概率,自适应地调整CS模型中的目标加速度,反映出了目标的机动特性,充分发挥2种算法的优点,改善了CS模型的加速度不能自适应调整的缺点,提高了CS模型的自适应性和应用范围.另外,CS模型的自适应滤波方法由Kalman滤波改为粒子滤波.通过Monte Carlo对比仿真试验表明了该算法的可行性和优越性.     

基于HLA的防区外空面导弹攻防对抗仿真

针对HLA/RTI在接口规范、对象模型模板等关键技术建立分布式仿真平台的复杂性,提出了利用数字武器开发平台进行开发的方法,构建防区外空面导弹攻防对抗系统体系结构,实现了该体系结构联邦成员划分、设计联邦/仿真对象模型表等HLA仿真关键技术,并采用面向对象建模与仿真技术建立了各联邦成员的数学模型.该仿真结果表明,各联邦成员的数学模型与底层支撑环境能够相互分离,仿真模型具有良好的交互性和互操作性,可通过添加或删除联邦成员仿真不同的复杂战场想定,并可作为验证不同算例的仿真平台.     

土体泊松比对压入管桩单桩挤土位移场的影响

基于ABAQUS有限元软件,采用主从接触算法模拟桩-土相互作用、修正剑桥模型作为土体本构模型,通过在桩顶施加竖向位移荷载以及合适的网格划分技术建立了较为符合压入管桩压桩实际的有限元模型。利用得到的有限元模型模拟了压入管桩压桩产生的挤土位移场,对不同泊松比时压入管桩单桩挤土位移场进行了对比分析。结果表明:不同泊松比时竖向和水平挤土位移场沿深度方向和径向的分布规律趋于一致;土体泊松比的变化会对压入管桩压桩产生的竖向和水平挤土位移场产生较大影响;泊松比越大,压桩产生的竖向和水平挤土位移越大。