美国2014年《四年防务评估报告》特点

2014年3月4日,美国国防部向国会提交了2014年版《四年防务评估报告》和《2015财年国防预算报告》。《四年防务评估报告》更新了再平衡战略,为美军建设提出了优先发展方向,要求美军联合部队向“更小型化”转型,以满足未来军事行动需求。     

一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型

研究一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型,得到了模型的基本再生数.通过线性化的方法,运用LaSalle-Lyapunov定理,证明当基本再生数R01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;通过迭代的方法,证明当基本再生数R01时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.     

基于电容式双探针检测装置的油水混合物 检测实验研究

机动管线水顶油排空是管线使用中的一项基本作业,排空过程中不可避免地会产生油水混合物,准确掌握油水混合比例是进行油水混合物切割的基础,故对油水混合物的检测尤为关键.结合机动管线的特点,选用基于电容检测原理的电容式双探针检测装置进行油水混合物检测实验,结果表明该装置仅适用于精度要求不高、静置时间足够长、油水混合物已充分分离的场合.机动管线水顶油排空油水混合物的检测还需要探索结构简单、操作简便的新方法.     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

The sixteenth-century antecedents of special operations ‘small war’

The first conceptual, theoretical treatises about small war (la petite guerre) as special operations appeared only from the middle of the seventeenth century. The term is not used in the eighteenth-century sense of ‘special operations’ in older sources. The supposed absence of any treatment of the subject is surprising considering the obsession with the ‘art of war’ in the Renaissance, but other authors attribute it to a supposed antinomy between chivalric ideals and irregular warfare. But the absence of explicit manuals on the subject is not evidence of absence of advanced reflection on this kind of operations in the Middle Ages and in Early Modern times. We should thus look elsewhere, in other genres, for writings that contain and pass on military knowledge. Epics, romances, educational and military treatises, and memoirs in fact contain elements of a theory of special operations, even though these genres differ from our conception of rationality inherited from the Enlightenment.     

Guerrillas and bandits in the Serranía de Ronda, 1810–1812

The Spanish Guerrilla (1808–1812) which has given its name to ideologically motivated insurgencies is usually portrayed as a patriotic uprising against the French occupation forces of Napoleon. It was that, in part, but also many other things besides. This case study illustrates its overlap and convergence with banditry but also with social unrest turned into uprisings directed by poor Spaniards against their creditors, as in the storming of Ronda by insurgents in 1810. From the propaganda of the day to the subsequent Spanish patriotic historiography, there has been a tendency to exaggerate the amplitude of events and also the damage that was done to the French forces and the casualty figures inflicted on them.     

Optimal pricing and inventory control policy in periodic‐review systems with fixed ordering cost and lost sales

This paper studies a periodic‐review pricing and inventory control problem for a retailer, which faces stochastic price‐sensitive demand, under quite general modeling assumptions. Any unsatisfied demand is lost, and any leftover inventory at the end of the finite selling horizon has a salvage value. The cost component for the retailer includes holding, shortage, and both variable and fixed ordering costs. The retailer's objective is to maximize its discounted expected profit over the selling horizon by dynamically deciding on the optimal pricing and replenishment policy for each period. We show that, under a mild assumption on the additive demand function, at the beginning of each period an (s,S) policy is optimal for replenishment, and the value of the optimal price depends on the inventory level after the replenishment decision has been done. Our numerical study also suggests that for a sufficiently long selling horizon, the optimal policy is almost stationary. Furthermore, the fixed ordering cost (K) plays a significant role in our modeling framework. Specifically, any increase in K results in lower s and higher S. On the other hand, the profit impact of dynamically changing the retail price, contrasted with a single fixed price throughout the selling horizon, also increases with K. We demonstrate that using the optimal policy values from a model with backordering of unmet demands as approximations in our model might result in significant profit penalty. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

任务空间概念模型VV&A研究

任务空间概念模型是现实世界军事知识的第一层抽象,是仿真系统开发的业务基础。所以任务空间概念模型的质量直接影响到仿真系统的质量,任务空间概念模型自身的VV&A是一个非常值得关注的问题。任务空间概念建模本质上看是军事领域的知识表示或者需求描述,定性描述占主要,定量成分非常少。因此,传统的通过分析输出数据的方法不能适应任务空间概念模型的特点。概要介绍了任务空间概念模型建模,并且提出了从专家法、静态校核机制、概念执行机制三个角度来考察模型质量的思路。     

云模型及其在指挥控制系统可靠性分析中的应用

根据指挥控制系统的特点及作战应用的具体情况,从指挥控制系统的可靠性出发,提出了适合指控系统可靠性分析的云模型。通过拟定性能评价指标,导出各指标的云模型及其多维加权综合云的重心,应用云重心评价方法进行分析;并通过案例,运用基于PC-L INM AP的云重心评价方法,以影响指挥控制系统可靠性的两个重要性能指标为依据,分析了未来联合作战中指挥控制系统的可靠性,比较贴近作战实际,可信度较高。     

非磁化等离子体与电磁波的作用

为了将等离子体RCS减缩技术应用于飞行器上,首先从微观角度分析等离子体与电磁波的作用;然后通过计算机仿真技术,分析了等离子体对电磁波的吸收、反射性能;最后探讨了几种解决等离子体电磁兼容问题的方法。结果表明等离子体对电磁波有一定的吸收效果,并可通过控制覆盖在飞行器表面等离子体的形状改变飞行器的电磁外形。等离子体RCS减缩技术具有潜在的工程应用价值。