Directional change‐point detection for process control with multivariate categorical data

Most modern processes involve multiple quality characteristics that are all measured on attribute levels, and their overall quality is determined by these characteristics simultaneously. The characteristic factors usually correlate with each other, making multivariate categorical control techniques a must. We study Phase I analysis of multivariate categorical processes (MCPs) to identify the presence of change‐points in the reference dataset. A directional change‐point detection method based on log‐linear models is proposed. The method exploits directional shift information and integrates MCPs into the unified framework of multivariate binomial and multivariate multinomial distributions. A diagnostic scheme for identifying the change‐point location and the shift direction is also suggested. Numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate the detection effectiveness and the diagnostic accuracy.© 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

非线性压电振动能量俘获行为建模及其不同参数影响机理研究

如何利用非线性特性来改善压电振动能量捕获性能是工程实际中需要解决的一个问题,为此建立了非线性压电振动能量捕获行为的数学模型,利用定积分法推导了该模型的数值计算方法,并针对不同参数对非线性压电振子输出电能的影响特性进行了数值仿真,结果表明:减小非线性阻尼、增大非线性压电耦合系数均有利于提高非线性压电振动能量俘获的性能;减小非线性刚度能提高低频振动能量俘获的输出,但减小了共振带宽。     

GNSS应急辅助定位及精度评估方法研究

在可视卫星数少于4颗、无法进行传统导航解算的恶劣环境下,导航接收机可利用外部高程气压计提供的高程或者内部守时模块的钟差等信息进行应急辅助定位。在该应急辅助定位工作模式的误差分析中,传统导航定位误差传递模型无法适用。针对此问题,本文在研究三星结合高程、三星结合钟差、双星结合高程钟差等几种应急辅助定位原理的基础上,给出了新的应急辅助定位误差传递的分析模型,利用仿真算例验证了该模型的正确性。最后通过对定位精度的分析,说明根据卫星分布特点可以按照本文方法量化得到伪距测量与辅助信息的精度的最优数量级关系,可以用最小代价实现定位精度的提升。该结论可指导接收机外部辅助器件的选择。     

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ON THE ROAD TO NUCLEAR ZERO

The disappointingly slow pace of progress on efforts to prevent proliferation, reduce nuclear weapons, and eliminate nuclear risks has many causes. The factor that might be easiest for individuals in the arms control and nonproliferation community to change stems from their own ambivalence about major questions that must be addressed on the road to reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the world to zero. This essay explores how ambivalence about four key issues—strategic stability, alliance relations, institution-building, and nuclear energy—often leads community members to take positions that play well at home and within their like-minded group but raise unintended impediments to achieving their own long-term goals. The author suggests alternative ways to handle these questions to improve the prospects for domestic and international agreement on practical measures that would eliminate, not perpetuate, nuclear risks.     

TURKEY AND MULTILATERAL NUCLEAR APPROACHES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

As many states in the Middle East are considering whether to embark on nuclear power programs, there is an urgent need to develop confidence-building measures to reassure states in the region that the programs are peaceful. One possible path would be to consider multilateral approaches to the fuel cycle in order to foster nuclear cooperation between states in the region, instead of each state going it alone, which would likely increase suspicions and the risk of a cascade of nuclear proliferation. With its policy of “zero problems with neighbors,” strategic connection to the West, and long-standing experience in the nuclear field, Turkey would be well-placed to take the lead on such a nuclear confidence-building agenda. Over time and under the right political conditions, Turkey could initiate or participate in measures including cooperation on nuclear education, safety and security, research and development, and joint fuel cycle facilities such as a regional fuel fabrication center.     

装药长径比对EFP成型作用效果影响分析

针对装药长径比对EFP成型的影响,基于一种球缺型药型罩EFP,利用ANSYS／LS-DYNA仿真软件对其成型过程进行建模仿真,研究EFP成型过程及其各项参数．在该基础上,改变装药高度得到不同的装药长径比数据,并对不同长径比EFP形成过程进行仿真,得到不同装药长径比EFP的速度、速度增长率及炸药能量利用率等数据,为选择最佳装药长径比提供依据．     

基于混响室的雷达瑞利杂波模拟研究

为应对复杂电磁环境下雷达应用需求,提出一种基于混响室的雷达杂波模拟方法,利用电磁仿真软件FE—KO构建了混响室模型,分析了搅拌器控制与接收响应周期性的关系,通过随机控制混响室搅拌器在混响室内模拟了具有瑞利分布的杂波信号．实验结果显示,本实验数据分布曲线与瑞利分布曲线有良好的拟合性．     

含灭火添加剂细水雾粒径分布规律

为了研究含灭火添加剂细水雾灭火机理,从添加剂对细水雾粒径分布的影响着手,利用全自动表面张力仪、实时喷雾激光粒度仪对含不同添加剂的细水雾粒径分布进行了研究。结果表明：磷酸二氢铵和尿素使水的表面张力略有增加,氟表面活性剂（Fc-134）和碳氢表面活性剂（APG）以及由4种添加剂组成的复合添加剂使水的表面张力大幅降低;磷酸二氢铵使粒径为2.09～26.23μm的雾滴数略有减少,粒径为31.06～462.33μm的雾滴数略有增加;氟表面活性剂（Fc-134）使粒径为8.05～22.16μm的雾滴数增加,粒径为22.17～278.64μm的雾滴数减少,粒径为278.65～1075.09μm的雾滴完全消失;碳氢表面活性剂（APG）使粒径为2.09～31.06μm的雾滴数减少,粒径为36.77～141.86μm的雾滴数增加;而复合添加剂使粒径为2.09～31.06μm的雾滴数减少,粒径为36.77～198.82μm的雾滴数增加。     

基于秘密共享的卫星网络组密钥管理方案

针对卫星网络组密钥管理的重要性,提出了一个可认证的基于门限秘密共享的组密钥管理方案．结合卫星网络的动态拓扑结构特点,将地面站作为组成员的身份注册中心,以实现对组成员的身份认证,确保节点的合法性．为了提高组密钥的生成效率,选取≠一1颗可见时间长的卫星构建组密钥份额分发中心,降低了组密钥联合生成过程中的通信量．组密钥协商无需安全信道,节省了系统资源．安全性及性能分析表明,该方案不仅具有较强的安全性,而且还具有计算和通信量小的优点．参数分析表明,门限值k与组密钥更新周期T是影响方案安全性的2个重要因子．     

微型波力发电装置的捕浪器研究

针对漂浮式微型波力发电装置,根据弗汝德·克雷洛夫假定法对几种常用形状浮子所受波浪力的大小进行了计算,得出垂直圆柱形浮子吸收波浪能效果最佳的结论;运用装置和浮子共振时吸收能量最大的原理,对垂直圆柱形浮子的基本参数进行了研究,为漂浮式微型波力发电装置捕浪器浮子的设计打下了基础。