以“贴近纳新”理念改进 任职教育军事专业课教法的几点思考

深化以任职教育为主体的教学方法改革,是顺应当前武警部队职能任务多样化的必然要求。任职教育适应岗位任职能力的需要必须注重加强军事专业课教学方法的改革与探索。“贴近纳新”把贴近职能需要纳入教学理念、贴近任职实际纳入组教模式、贴近岗位实用纳入课题施教为着眼点,旨在适应任职教育岗位任职能力培养的需要。     

浅谈现代远程教育对武警院校教学的深远影响

武警院校拥有丰富的教育资源,依托武警部队日益健全的内部网络系统,大力开展现代远程教育,能够更加紧密院校与部队的联系,及时了解部队的需求,制定出更加符合部队实际的课程体系,更大限度发挥现有教学资源的效益。由于远程教育具有方便快捷,受时间、空间局限小的特性,弥补了由于武警部队点多、线长、面广,分布相对分散,导致部队官兵学习时间不固定、人员难以集中等不便的问题,为武警部队官兵获取文化知识,学习科学技术提供了新的途径。     

浅析思维品质的谋略思想基础——《孙子兵法》对武警指挥员战术思维品质的启示

作为举世公认的兵学宝典,《孙子兵法》蕴涵着丰富的谋略思想,表现出高超的思维艺术,成为思维品质的基础性来源。武警指挥员战术思维品质的预见性、经验性、灵活性、辩证性、系统性,正是其谋略精华在新时期武警执勤作战中的运用和发展。     

基于垂直线列阵的深海被动目标定深误差

首先研究了在深海环境下,采用三阵元垂直线列阵水声探测系统进行被动目标定深的基本原理。然后分别从随机误差、阵元配置偏差和相干多途水声信道干扰的角度,对被动目标定深的误差源进行了理论分析,并推导了相关公式。通过仿真实验,总结出各误差源对被动目标定深精度影响的规律,为进一步开展被动目标定深研究、提高被动目标定深精度奠定了基础。     

基于金属膜电阻的大功率低电感负载

利用金属膜电阻设计并制作了用于陡化前沿Marx发生器调试的大功率低电感负载.其阻值约为90Ω,电感约为55nH,基本不具备分散电容.该负载采用线性渐变的圆锥外型结构,有利于减小信号在负载上的反射,配合电容分压器使用能够很好地完成对前沿约为几ns的快前沿高压脉冲的测量.理论估算了该负载的功率容量,并利用PSpice软件模拟了对其进行脉冲方波加载的情况.该负载用于调试陡化前沿的Marx发生器的实验中,获得了幅值约210kV,脉宽近40ns,前沿为5ns的快前沿高压脉冲.多次实验结果表明该负载性能稳定,适用于陡化前沿Marx发生器的调试工作.     

Regular and irregular forces in conflict: nineteenth century insurgencies in South America

ABSTRACT

In the decades following independence from Spain, ‘civil wars’ ravaged the newly established polities in South America. Former vice-regal capitals inherited a larger portion of the colonial administration and had larger economic resources and a hegemonic project they were able to have permanent and professional armed forces, capable of leading the offensive and giving battle following the European rules of military art. The central hypothesis of this work is that there is a necessary relationship between the shape of these asymmetrical conflicts, their outcome and the political territorial configuration of each country in post-revolutionary Spanish America. When permanent armies took over from local militias, the capital kept the integrity of its territories and there was a tendency towards political centralization. When this did not happen and the militias managed to find a way to defeat their centralizing enemies, the local powers had an opportunity to renegotiate their participation in the political body, and sought to maintain their independence, which was manifest in federal agreements, otherwise a process of territorial fragmentation began. More than a difference between regular and irregular forces there was one between intermittent, and permanent mobilization.     

Buy now,pay later: American military intervention and the strategic cost paradox

This paper explores the notion that US efforts to evade the political costs of war paradoxically contribute to the subsequent exacerbation of costs over time. Leaders seek to purchase political capital in the short term by limiting the costs and requirements of military operations, but in doing so cause strategic and political liabilities to mount in the long run. While identification of such behaviour is not new, insufficient attention has been devoted to explaining its causes, dynamics, and manifestations in relation to key decisions on and in war. Evidence derived from studies of recent American discretionary campaigns is analysed to advance an argument with respect to this pattern of self-defeating strategic behaviour.     

The Gravity of Arms

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role.     

On the roles of free play in army exercises and the Russians

The article outlines the essential role of free play elements in various types of exercises for the development of in-depth and practical military professionalism. It thereafter argues why such use of free play contradicts the military science founded Russian Way of War.     

Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008