军事欺骗战法分析的数学方法-应用*

针对军事欺骗战法定量分析困难的问题,采用基于贝叶斯统计推断和博弈均衡分析的数学方法,在理论上为解决此难题提供了一种可行的方法.该方法首先定义基本概率矩阵,然后根据贝叶斯原理为交战双方构造用于统计推断的主观概率矩阵,并在由两个主观概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链与实施军事欺骗机会之间建立对应关系,再将此关系推广到基本概率矩阵,即是否存在实施军事欺骗的机会将由基本概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链决定.对理论成果的初步应用表明:通过分析由战场情报信息构成的基本概率矩阵的偏序链,可以科学地运用军事欺骗和反军事欺骗战法.     

Group support for political violence: The role of emotions and expressive choice in creating conflict or providing peace

This paper provides a rationale for group support for political violence which does not provide a material benefit. Rabin’s (1993) theory of fairness is adopted to demonstrate that although group violence may not be a Nash equilibrium it may be a fairness equilibrium in a game containing psychological payoffs. For this to happen the material stakes must be perceived as low and psychological payoffs are expressive. Although the material stakes are actually high, members of each group may choose expressively to support the use of violence because the probability of being decisive is low. The paper also considers the possibility of peace emerging as a fairness equilibrium. This can only happen if each group perceives the other as making some sacrifice in choosing peace.     

一类具有标准发生率的SI型传染病模型的全局稳定性

研究如下一类具有标准发生率的SI型传染病模型{ds/dt=rS（1-（S＋I）/K-β SI/（S＋I）, dI/dt=βSI/（S＋I）-dI。应用微分方程定性理论,给出了该系统地方病平衡点、无病平衡点和总人口消亡平衡点的全局渐近稳定的充分条件。     

李雅普诺夫运动稳定性与平衡状态稳定性的关系

稳定性是系统分析的重要内容 ,针对在系统稳定性分析中 ,运动稳定性和平衡状态稳定性之间常易于混淆的问题 ,详细分析了两种稳定性之间内在本质联系 ,给出了从一种稳定性过渡到另一种稳定性的方法     

模拟体系对抗价值链的网络同步模型

描述战斗毁伤"规模效应"的Lanchester模型默认作战体系内部是"完美的"。本文扬弃此假设,首次从作战体系内部"共识"涌现的视角提出了一个模拟体系对抗价值链的网络"同步效应"模型,研究了战场变化、个体/群体认知、自同步与对抗均衡等概念的网络拓扑和权值演化形式,并发现在对抗均衡条件下无标度网络具有"同步脆弱性"。     

大区域防空的进化群决策机制研究

大区域防空所涉及的区域广阔,因素众多,其作战计划的制定比较复杂。为解决此问题,提出了一种基于改进德尔菲法的具有进化学习功能的群决策机制,得到了纳什均衡解,使作战方案的制定更加合理,有助于防空作战效能的提高。     

非对称Colonel Blotto博弈模型下的多信道功率分配抗干扰

针对智能干扰条件下传输速率固定的通信系统多信道功率分配问题,建立了非对称Colonel Blotto博弈模型。在完全信息条件下,推导出了各种功率预算约束下通信方和干扰方的等效单信道最优功率分配策略,进而证明了通信方和干扰方存在唯一混合纳什均衡策略,并求得了纳什均衡收益。基于等效单信道最优功率分布,提出了一种多重扫描直接列元素交换算法,可以快速构建多信道混合功率分配矩阵,且相比于线性规划方法,可适应更多的信道数和更广的功率分布范围。通过数值仿真,验证了所提多信道混合功率分配矩阵构造算法的有效性及多信道功率分配策略的最优性。     

Equilibrium customer strategies and social–profit maximization in the single‐server constant retrial queue

We consider the single‐server constant retrial queue with a Poisson arrival process and exponential service and retrial times. This system has not waiting space, so the customers that find the server busy are forced to abandon the system, but they can leave their contact details. Hence, after a service completion, the server seeks for a customer among those that have unsuccessfully applied for service but left their contact details, at a constant retrial rate. We assume that the arriving customers that find the server busy decide whether to leave their contact details or to balk based on a natural reward‐cost structure, which incorporates their desire for service as well as their unwillingness to wait. We examine the customers' behavior, and we identify the Nash equilibrium joining strategies. We also study the corresponding social and profit maximization problems. We consider separately the observable case where the customers get informed about the number of customers waiting for service and the unobservable case where they do not receive this information. Several extensions of the model are also discussed. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

高超声速流动计算中LU-SGS隐式算法的应用

在高超声速条件下,对原始LU-SGS格式及其改进方法的收敛速度做了深入的比较分析,目的是进一步更好地将LU-SGS算法用于工程上复杂外形的计算模拟中。二维圆柱,三维钝锥及空天飞机算例的结果表明:对于高超声速粘性流动的计算,粘性项应进行隐式处理;BLU-SGS方法给出的内迭代方式的收敛性优于DP-LUR方法所给出的内迭代方式;LU-SGS算法中雅克比系数矩阵的计算方式对计算量及收敛性影响较大,若采用精确的矩阵形式,则在流动无分离情况下能取得快速收敛的效果,而在含有流动分离的情况,因受稳定性的影响,精确的矩阵形式的收敛表现不及对角近似形式。     

The impact of military spending cutbacks on economic activity in an incentive‐wage two‐sector aggregative economy∗

We examine the theoretical outcomes of disarmament on economic activity in a two‐sector model of endogenous equilibrium unemployment rate. Three main shocks are analyzed: Exogenous cutbacks in military spending on the capital good and employment, and a reduction in public sector debt. The first shock is contractionary for equilibrium employment if the capital‐goods producing sector is relatively labour‐intensive but expansionary under the alternative factor intensity assumption. The second shock is contractionary for employment under either relative factor intensity assumption. If Ricardian equivalence fails, a reduction in public sector debt is likely to expand long‐term employment (JEL E24).