A critique of Paul Collier's ‘greed and grievance’ thesis of civil war

Paul Collier has produced a well-written and apparently plausible thesis on ‘greed and grievance’, evidenced in several published texts, which concludes unambiguously that greed, not grievance, is overwhelmingly the cause of conflict. However, Collier has based these findings upon narrowly defined quantitative measures–three defined indices of greed and four indices of grievance. Collier consciously omitted indices which he found difficult to measure, such as suppliers of armaments and opportunities for bureaucratic corruption. However, he appears to have unwittingly omitted some further factors, including governance, management mechanisms for natural resources and the influence that charismatic leadership can have on rebel groups. These omissions can be viewed as a major flaw in Collier's work. They also explain why Collier has diagnosed that civil wars are more likely to occur in some countries in the developing world without offering adequate explanation of why this may be so.     

基于协商的Agent资源冲突消解算法研究

针对分布式规划系统中Agent计划的资源冲突问题,研究了资源冲突的分类;基于Agent协商理论,从资源最优配置的角度,论证了最优的协商策略,提出了可重复利用的不可分享型资源的冲突消解算法,较好地解决了Agent分布式规划中出现的一类资源冲突问题。算例表明,给出的冲突消解算法是有效的。     

多源目标识别中冲突证据的融合策略研究

随着防空反导作战环境的日益复杂,快速准确地进行真假目标识别显得尤为重要。针对多源目标决策级识别中冲突证据融合问题,在综合分析现有改进证据理论方法的基础上,引入新的冲突度量系数,提出了一种通过在融合流程中增加智能判断环节,以冲突系数为判断依据,对具有不同冲突系数证据选择不同组合规则进行证据组合的融合方法,并给出了策略的流程图。最后进行了实例验证,结果表明新策略能对不同未知信度和不同识别框架冲突证据进行快速有效的融合。     

维吾尔族数学文化调查分析

维吾尔族传统文化中包含着丰富的数学元素。充分挖掘和展示维吾尔族文化中的数学知识,重视课程资源开发,提倡数学学习方式的多样化,深化多元文化视野下的数学教育对于推进少数民族地区数学课程改革具有积极的现实意义。此外,有关民族数学教育学的理论体系的建立及实践探索也是必须涉及的一个重要方面。     

基于族群机制的花朵授粉算法

针对花朵授粉算法易陷入局部极值、收敛速度慢等不足,提出一种具有族群机制的花朵授粉算法。该算法把种群分成多个族群,各族群的最优个体再组成新的种群,进而促进种群间的信息交流,有效地协调种群进化过程中的全局搜索和局部搜索能力,避免个体的早熟收敛,提高算法的全局寻优能力及收敛速度。通过8个CEC2005benchmark测试函数进行测试比较,仿真结果表明,改进算法的寻优性能明显优于基本的花朵授粉算法、粒子群算法和蝙蝠算法,其收敛精度、收敛速度、鲁棒性均较对比算法有较大提高。     

多属性融合的坦克分队作战效能评估

现代条件下战场情况复杂,影响作战效能的因素众多且具有不确定性,为了获得对作战效能更为准确,可靠的评价,构建了一种新的基于多属性融合的坦克分队作战效能评估模型。结合已有的证据理论改进算法,给出了一种新的解决冲突证据的组合规则,并提出了一种新的组合策略,将其应用于评估模型中定性指标的融合;通过线性与非线性综合加权的方法求得评价的综合分值,得出了最终的评估结果。通过实例表明,该模型符合评估实际,对多属性模型的评估具有一定的借鉴意义。     

基于TRIZ的陆军装备保障转型活动生成研究

TRIZ是一种通过解决冲突来解决发明问题的理论,具有系统性、科学性和创新性相统一的特点．通过建立陆军装备保障目标能力参数体系,分析目标能力提升中存在的冲突情况并加以解决,建立了基于TRIZ的陆军装备保障转型活动生成方法,以期有效解决装备保障转型活动生成的关键难题．     

ARMED NON-STATE ACTORS IN AFRICA AND THE BAN ON ANTI-PERSONNEL LANDMINES

A truly universal ban on anti-personnel mines cannot be realized without engagement of armed non-state actors and armed groups operating outside state control, including rebels and national liberation movements. Events after 9/11 have complicated engagement with organizations that can be classified as ‘terrorists’. Yet, the use of anti-personnel landmines itself can be viewed as an act of terrorism and African leaders have, on various occasions, classified the use of landmines and the presence of unexploded ordnance as engendering insecurity and a serious impediment to development. The success of a total ban ultimately depends upon ensuring that armed non-state actors act in accordance with international humanitarian law. The Geneva Call Deed of Commitment for Adherence to a Total Ban on Anti-Personnel Mines and for Cooperation in Mine Action (DoC) might be described as an alternative instrument to the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention and can serve an important and impartial channel of communication with non-state actors. Already 18 armed groups in Africa have signed the Geneva Call DoC.     

Maintaining peace in a neighbourhood torn by separatism: the case of Satun province in southern Thailand

While separatist-related conflict has re-emerged in southern Thailand, there is one predominantly Muslim border province that has remained outside of the conflict. Satun province has been conspicuously unaffected by the Malay-Muslim separatist movement, despite its shared history and ethnic origins with the conflict-affected provinces. In contrast to Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat, the process of state penetration in Satun was gradual and comparatively less coercive, leading to relative stability and encouraging political and economic integration. This comparative study analyzes the history of cooperative state–minority relations and political stability in Satun province, and draws important lessons directly applicable to the unrest in neighbouring provinces.