“马赛克战”对装备体系试验鉴定的启示

自2017年8月DARPA公布“马赛克战”作战概念以来,世界各国都高度关注这一新型作战概念,学者们对“马赛克战”的研究也逐渐走向深入。本文首先从国际形势、美军装备特点、人工智能技术等方面分析了“马赛克战”的提出背景,回顾了其发展历程,剖析了其概念内涵,并从三个角度分析了其主要特点。接着着眼未来,从革新理念、鼓励创新、形成质变等视角探讨了“马赛克战”对装备体系试验鉴定领域未来发展方向的启示,重点论述了装备体系试验鉴定要向全智能作战体系试验鉴定方向发展的观点。最后聚焦当下,阐述了现阶段试验鉴定工作应重点关注动态互联互通性测试、互操作能力验证、新型仿真试验技术、系统自主能力等级评估及决策可解释性评估等五个方面的内容。     

A usable past: a contemporary approach to history for the Western profession of arms

The most effective way for the Western profession of arms to use history is to disavow the purism and narrow specialisation of today’s academia in favour of developing a contemporary approach to the subject. The latter aims to foster a range of applied diagnostic skills that transcend the temporal dimensions of past, present, and future. A contemporary approach to history for military professionals emphasises the use of inter-disciplinary war studies to enhance policy relevance. In any defense and security organisation, history must be usable in the sense of providing cognitive and interpretative skills for probing relationships between possibility and actuality, between experience and expectation, and between singularity and repetition. Using history to examine such dialectical interconnections is particularly valuable when military establishments confront their essential task of analyzing emerging trends in the future of war.     

Implementing defence policy: a benchmark-“lite”

Most countries put significant amounts of time and effort in writing and issuing high-level policy documents. These are supposed to guide subsequent national defence efforts. But do they? And how do countries even try to ensure that they do? This paper reports on a benchmarking effort of how a few “best of breed” small- to medium-sized defence organisations (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) deal with these issues. We find that most countries fail to link goals to resources and pay limited attention to specific and rigorous ex-ante or post-hoc evaluation, even when compared to their own national government-wide provisions. We do, however, observe a (modest) trend towards putting more specific goals and metrics in these documents that can be – and in a few rare cases were – tracked. The paper identifies 42 concrete policy “nuggets” – both “do’s and don’ts” – that should be of interest to most defence policy planning/analysis communities. It ends with two recommendations that are in line with recent broader (non-defence) scholarship on the policy formulation-policy implementation gap: to put more rigorous emphasis on implementation (especially on achieving desired policy effects), but to do so increasingly in more experiential (“design”) ways, rather than in industrial-age bureaucratic ones (“PPBS”-systems).     

改革军事高科技培训质量评价办法的思考

文章通过梳理20年来开展军事高科技培训质量评价工作的情况,分析了取得的成绩和存在的不足,指出要将培训效果和课程体系的整体质量评价与具体课程的教学质量评价相结合,构建完善的评价体系。提出了改革军事高科技培训质量评价体系的基本原则,并结合培训工作的主要环节和特点,借鉴柯氏模型提出了一种军事高科技培训质量评价体系的主要结构。最后给出了构建质量评价体系和提高评价实效的有关思考。     

美军试验鉴定技术发展研究

众所周知,美军的装备试验鉴定技术一直处于世界领先地位,对其进行深入研究有利于试验鉴定的发展。本文主要对美军试验鉴定的管理部门、类型、发展历程以及技术领域进行详细研究,系统梳理美军试验鉴定的整个过程,在此基础上,结合我试验鉴定的发展现状,取其精华,去其糟粕,为试验鉴定的发展提出了几点思考和建议。     

火灾风险评估法在性能化设计中的应用

火灾风险评估法对于采取经济有效的消防措施,防止火灾的发生、发展,降低火灾造成的人员伤亡和财产损失有着重要的意义。介绍了火灾风险评估方法的有关概念和分析流程,并举例说明了火灾风险评估方法在性能化设计中的应用。     

关于在公安现役部队推行全面预算管理的几点思考

对现阶段公安现役部队全面预算管理现状和面临的问题进行了分析,从确定部队战略目标,党委重视和全员参与,构建全面预算管理组织结构及制度体系,全面预算的编制、控制、调整及考评等几个方面提出了有效实施全面预算管理的思路和具体措施。     

运用模糊数学方法综合评价教学质量

提高教学质量是所有学校不断追求和努力的方向。由于在进行教学质量的评价中,不但要根据教学目标和标准选取指标体系,而且对每一指标的评价又存在一定的模糊性。将模糊数学方法运用到教学质量的评价中,先建立模糊数学模型,然后进行实例研究,既得到了定性评价结果,也得到了定量评价结果,为教学管理部门提供科学、合理的评价方法。     

多平台目标定位误差估计技术研究

目标定位的目的之一是为了对目标发起攻击,而定位误差直接影响到武器的打击效果,如制导武器的发现概率和命中概率.为了及时、准确地把握目标定位误差的大小及分布,为控制/导引制导武器提供依据,给出了目标定位误差估计模型,并在实验室仿真环境下对所提出的定位误差估计技术进行了仿真验证,验证结果表明了误差估计算法的适应性、有效性.     

弹道导弹攻防效果评估仿真研究

针对典型的弹道导弹攻防过程,将其从雷达对抗的角度进行建模分层,建立了适用于弹道导弹攻防的评估指标体系.由于影响攻防效果的诸多因素大多具有模糊性,故将模糊综合评估引入到弹道导弹攻防对抗领域.从评估仿真结果可以看出,改进后的模糊方法应用在弹道导弹攻防评估上是可行的,对弹道导弹作战体系有一定的指导意义.