基于参数稳态判定的两阶段序贯仿真分析策略

两阶段序贯分析方法是仿真(模拟)实验研究中的一种常用方法,它虽然可以通过控制实验给出符合精度要求的结果数据,但以其现有形式有时却无法避免冗余计算的存在和实验过早终止的可能.在回顾了现有终态仿真解算终止策略特点的基础上,分析了所需样本总数的估计值与当前可用样本间的变化关系,提出了一种基于参数稳态判定的改进两阶段序贯方法....     

Periodic review inventory management with contingent use of two freight modes with fixed costs

We study a stochastic inventory model of a firm that periodically orders a product from a make‐to‐order manufacturer. Orders can be shipped by a combination of two freight modes that differ in lead‐times and costs, although orders are not allowed to cross. Placing an order as well as each use of each freight mode has a fixed and a quantity proportional cost. The decision of how to allocate units between the two freight modes utilizes information about demand during the completion of manufacturing. We derive the optimal freight mode allocation policy, and show that the optimal policy for placing orders is not an (s,S) policy in general. We provide tight bounds for the optimal policy that can be calculated by solving single period problems. Our analysis enables insights into the structure of the optimal policy specifying the conditions under which it simplifies to an (s,S) policy. We characterize the best (s,S) policy for our model, and through extensive numerical investigation show that its performance is comparable with the optimal policy in most cases. Our numerical study also sheds light on the benefits of the dual freight model over the single freight models. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

现行火灾事故调查制度应用分析及完善路径探讨

《火灾事故调查规定》是规范火灾事故调查,保障公安机关消防机构依法履行职责,保护火灾当事人合法权益的基本规章。结合《火灾事故调查规定》的应用实践,阐述了新修订的《火灾事故调查规定》一些制度设计对火灾事故调查工作的影响,分析了其适用中存在的问题,提出了解决这些问题的对策,有助于进一步完善火灾事故调查制度。     

基于聚类算法的多无人机系统任务分配

针对现有任务分配方法在任务点较多时不易解算,且计算量大的问题,提出了基于模糊C-均值聚类算法的多无人机系统任务分配方法.首先,利用模糊C-均值聚类算法得到的隶属度矩阵对任务点进行初始分配;其次,针对基于空间划分聚类可能造成各UAV任务不均衡的问题,设计任务的局部优化调整规则;最后,结合单旅行商问题,利用Tabu Sea...     

Optimal sample size allocation for tests with multiple levels of stress with extreme value regression

In this article, we discuss the optimal allocation problem in a multiple stress levels life‐testing experiment when an extreme value regression model is used for statistical analysis. We derive the maximum likelihood estimators, the Fisher information, and the asymptotic variance–covariance matrix of the maximum likelihood estimators. Three optimality criteria are defined and the optimal allocation of units for two‐ and k‐stress level situations are determined. We demonstrate the efficiency of the optimal allocation of units in a multiple stress levels life‐testing experiment by using real experimental situations discussed earlier by McCool and Nelson and Meeker. Monte Carlo simulations are used to show that the optimality results hold for small sample sizes as well. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Quantifying the performance effects of idle time utilization in multiserver systems

In many practical multiserver queueing systems, servers not only serve randomly arriving customers but also work on the secondary jobs with infinite backlog during their idle time. In this paper, we propose a c‐server model with a two‐threshold policy, denoted by (e d), to evaluate the performance of this class of systems. With such a policy, when the number of idle servers has reached d (<c), then e (<d) idle agents will process secondary jobs. These e servers keep working on the secondary jobs until they find waiting customers exist in the system at a secondary job completion instant. Using the matrix analytic method, we obtain the stationary performance measures for evaluating different (e, d) policies. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

遗传算法在防空导弹火力优化分配中的应用

介绍了遗传算法的基本原理、算法设计并结合遗传算法主要解决了如何把目标分配给火力单元的问题,编写了相应的程序,并给出了一个基于遗传算法的火力优化分配方案。     

始终处于大气层内飞行的TBM被动段弹道预测

对大气层内飞行的TBM弹道进行预测时,需要根据不同的应用要求,在求解精度允许范围内用近似方法对六自由度运动进行简化,获得简便实用的弹道预测方法。在假设获得TBM被动段弹道初始位置和速度参数的基础上,首先构建简便实用的处于大气层内飞行的TBM被动段抛物线弹道模型;然后将雷达测得的TBM被动段弹道初始位置和速度参数作为初始条件,对弹道方程采用精度较高的龙格-库塔法进行求解,相应得出被动段弹道上各点及落点的位置和速度参数,进一步确定出落点位置的地理位置经纬度。在某地空攻防对抗仿真项目中应用表明,弹道模型及其求解方法可应用于实战或较为逼真的仿真系统中。     

防空武器系统总体效能的灰色层次评价模型

以某型防空导弹为例,首先建立防空武器系统总体效能评价指标,并采用效用函数法进行指标量化。在此基础上,采用AHP法和Dephi法确定权重系数,采用灰色方法计算综合评估值,从而建立一种综合灰色系统理论、AHP法和ADC法三者优点的灰色层次评价模型。最后对该型防空导弹进行仿真分析。结果证明,灰色层次评价法较AHP法和ADC法具有更大的合理性。     

基于EMP环境下的导弹作战防护对策分析

EMP武器以其极强的破坏性在现代战争中展现出了显著的作战效能。为了提高EMP环境下导弹作战防护能力,简单分析了EMP的产生过程,阐述了EMP武器在作战运用中的干扰、软(硬)杀伤的作用机理,研究了EMP环境对导弹及测试设备、指挥系统、计算机系统的影响,提出了导弹作战中对EMP的防护应采取设置法拉第笼、可靠接地、滤波等防护对策。