退化速率跟踪粒子滤波在剩余使用寿命预测中的应用

毋庸置疑,剩余使用寿命预测对于设备的健康管理越来越重要。近年来粒子滤波方法被越来越多地应用到设备寿命预测技术当中,这是因为粒子滤波方法能更好地解决非线性非高斯系统滤波问题,而且能够获得不确定度信息。但该方法的预测性能却过度依赖于预测模型,并且对于模型参数的初始分布也比较敏感,这在一定程度上限制了粒子滤波预测方法的进一步发展。针对基本粒子滤波预测方法的不足,提出了一种基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的通用预测框架,以历史观测数据的退化速率统计规律作为指导来跟踪目标数据的退化速率,实现对粒子滤波预测方法的简化,并将该方法用于轴承和锂离子电池的剩余使用寿命预测,验证了方法的有效性。     

On lifetimes in random environments

For a component operating in random environment, whose hazard rate is assumed to be the realization of a suitable increasing stochastic process, conditions are found such that its lifetime is increasing in likelihood ratio (ILR). For the lifetimes of two components of the same kind some comparisons based on partial stochastic orders are presented. Some applications to the case of repairable components are finally provided. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 365–375, 1998     

基于故障树分析的航空装备体系结构贡献率评估方法

针对航空装备体系构成复杂的特点,将故障树分析引入航空装备体系结构贡献率评估问题,提出基于故障树分析的评估方法.从作战装备、信息支援装备和保障装备三个方面构建航空装备体系结构,建造航空装备体系结构故障树;采用底事件的关键重要度指标来计算航空装备的体系结构贡献率,建立基于关键重要度的航空装备体系结构贡献率评估模型;以某航空...     

可靠度限制下相控阵雷达天线阵面T/R单元维修模型

为了描述维修活动对相控阵雷达天线阵面系统的影响,构建了以可靠度为基础的“修旧不如新”定期维修优化模型。对相控阵雷达T/R单元失效下的天线性能参数进行分析,根据指标确定系统不能正常工作的失效T/R单元阈值; 针对大部分维修活动都难以使T/R单元修复如新的事实,引入失效率递增因子,在系统一定的可靠度水平上,以相控阵雷达系统的使用可用度和维修费用率为优化决策参数,建立了系统的维修优化模型,并运用边际效能算法对系统的最佳预防换件维修周期和换件维修组数量进行求解。实例运算结果表明,该模型突破了已有模型“修旧如新”的限制条件,更符合实际,能为维修策略的制定提供理论依据。     

针对不同视场辅助信标的无人机目标定位方法

针对无人机在单站测角测距的目标定位过程中受无人机姿态角误差影响较大的问题,提出一种对辅助信标进行探测并与惯性传感器相结合的无人机姿态求解方法。建立基于容积卡尔曼滤波的惯性传感器姿态求解模型,采用梯度下降法对基于辅助信标的无人机位姿参数进行求解,并综合它们的结果对无人机的姿态偏差进行估计和校正,最后完成了不同视场条件下的目标定位和仿真计算。结果表明,所提方法对无人机目标定位精度有明显提高。     

Phenomenological modelling of flow behaviour of 20MnMoNi55 reactor pressure vessel steel at cryogenic temperature with different strain rates

In the present study a phenomenological constitutive model is developed to describe the flow behaviour of 20MnMoNi55 low carbon reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steel at sub-zero temperature under different strain rates. A set of uniaxial tensile tests is done with the variation of strain rates and temperature ranging from 10⁻⁴ s⁻¹ to 10⁻¹ s⁻¹ and -80 °C to −140 °C respectively. From the experimental data, family of flow curves at different temperatures and strain rates are generated and fitted exponentially. The strain rate and temperature dependence of the coefficients of the exponential flow curves are extracted from these curves and characterised through a general phenomenological constitutive coupled equation. The coefficients of this coupled equation are optimised using genetic algorithm. Finite element simulation of tensile tests at different strain rates and temperatures are done using this coupled equation in material model of Abaqus FEA software and validated with experimental results. The novelties of proposed model are: (a) it can predict precisely the flow behaviour of tensile tests (b) it is a simple form of equation where fitting parameters are both function of strain rate ratio and temperature ratio, (c) it has ability to characterize flow behaviour with decreasing subzero temperatures and increasing strain rates.     

Some new results on the preservation of the NBUE and NWUE aging classes under the formation of coherent systems

We consider the classical problem of whether certain classes of lifetime distributions are preserved under the formation of coherent systems. Under the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) component lifetimes, we consider the NBUE (new better than used in expectation) and NWUE (new worse than used in expectation) classes. First, a necessary condition for a coherent system to preserve the NBUE class is given. Sufficient conditions are then obtained for systems satisfying this necessary condition. The sufficient conditions are satisfied for a collection of systems which includes all parallel systems, but the collection is shown to be strictly larger. We also prove that no coherent system preserves the NWUE class. As byproducts of our study, we obtain the following results for the case of i.i.d. component lifetimes: (a) the DFR (decreasing failure rate) class is preserved by no coherent systems other than series systems, and (b) the IMRL (increasing mean residual life) class is not preserved by any coherent systems. Generalizations to the case of dependent component lifetimes are briefly discussed.     

室内装饰织物燃烧特性研究

室内装饰织物因其容易点燃、燃烧速度快、蔓延迅速等燃烧特性,对室内火灾的发展蔓延及火灾危害都有重要影响。运用锥形量热仪对棉麻、涤纶、帆布、泡纱、条绒等5种室内装饰织物的燃烧性能进行了实验研究,测量了室内装饰织物在不同热辐射条件下的燃烧特性,并对实验数据进行图像拟合,通过具体的实验数据和图像分析比较了5种室内装饰织物在不同热辐射条件下的点燃时间、热释放速率、质量损失速率、比消光面积及CO生成量。最后得出了各种织物的火灾危险性相对大小。     

西藏与内地古建筑常用木材燃烧特性对比研究

为研究西藏高海拔条件对古建筑火灾的影响,分别在拉萨与廊坊进行了中等规模木垛燃烧实验。测得了木垛燃烧的质量损失速率、火焰高度和燃烧温度,并分析了空气中氧气含量和大气压力对木垛引燃和燃烧的影响。实验表明：在拉萨低气压条件下,木垛引燃难度加大、燃烧时间增加、质量损失速率降低、木垛中心温度降低。     

装备维修中备件需求率的预计方法

通过研究装备维修过程中器件的固有可靠性和维修性,着重分析了影响维修器件需求率的主要因素.利用系统建模和仿真的方法,分别针对耗损类型器件和可修复类型器件建立了相应的需求数学模型,最后给出了维修备件需求率的预计方法.