末段高层反导装备PHM多socket仿真分析

详细分析了独立于LRU的PHM方法和基于故障征兆预测的PHM方法的预测原理。利用LRU和PHM的MTBF概率分布和socket的全寿命周期费用建立仿真模型,介绍模型仿真方法与详细过程。研究了末段高层反导武器系统单socket全寿命周期费用与安全极限和预测距离的关系。引入同步时间的概念,利用单socket模型的方法优化多socket组成的系统。模型仿真结果更贴近末段高层反导装备实际,比单socket模型更有应用价值。     

某型飞机平尾轴疲劳断裂失效分析

采用台架试验装置对某型飞机平尾轴进行了疲劳试验,通过断口的观察分析、断口部位的金相分析、硬度检测、有限元结构应力分析,确定了平尾轴的失效模式,并对其断裂失效原因进行了分析。结果表明：平尾轴的断裂性质为疲劳断裂,裂纹源均起源于大轴简体内壁加工刀痕形成的沟槽处,变截面圆弧造成的结构应力集中和粗糙加工刀痕形成的附加应力集中是造成大轴疲劳断裂的主要原因。关键词：平尾轴;疲劳断裂;失效分析;应力集中     

Opportunistic retooling of a flexible machine subject to failure

A set of jobs can be processed without interruption by a flexible machine only if the set of tools required by all jobs can be loaded in the tool magazine. However, in practice the total number of tools required by a job set would exceed the tool magazine capacity. In such situations, the job set has to be carefully partitioned at the start of the production run such that each partition can be processed without interruption. During the production run, if there are unscheduled machine downtimes due to machine failure, this provides an additional opportunity to optimally retool the magazine for a smaller job set consisting of just the unprocessed jobs. In this paper, we study job sequencing rules that allow us to minimize the total expected cost of machine down time due to machine failures and magazine retooling, assuming a dynamic re‐sequencing of the unprocessed jobs after each machine failure. Using these rules, we develop a branch‐and‐bound heuristic that allows us to solve problems of reasonable size. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 79–97, 2001     

基于复合失效模式的寿命分布检验方法

产品往往受随机失效和耗损失效两种模式的双重影响,因此,构造指数威布尔分布表征该类产品的失效规律。首先,用图检验法对该类产品的寿命数据进行初步检验;其次,研究了该类产品寿命数据的极大似然估计的求解方法,进一步用伽方检验方法对寿命分布类进行了检验;最后,通过工程仿真例子说明了该方法的具体操作流程,最终验证了方法的正确性。     

坦克推进系统分段寿命试验统计分析

本文用生存分析方法,对坦克分段寿命试验进行了统计分析,并从理论上说明了坦克分段寿命试验的合理性.     

引信静态试验模拟动态试验研究

研究了用静态试验评价无线电引信质量性能的方法。分析了静态试验项目、样本量的确定,建立了各组件失效与引信失效的对应关系,提出了通过组件的失效信息计算引信失效率的方法。     

一种顺序PROLOG机系统结构的研究

文中概述顺序执行PROLOG程序的计算机的一种系统结构的研究和实现情况,主要包括一个扩充的顺序PROLOG的抽象执行模型、机器指令系统、编译型PROLOG数据库的研究与实现算法、实验系统YH-SIM-ES的设计与实现、以及一种支持快速回顾的PROLOG机硬件组织的研究。     

When are observed failures more informative than observed survivals?

A framework involving independent competing risks permits observing failures due to a specific cause and failures due to a competing cause, which constitute survival times from the cause of primary interest. Is observing more failures more informative than observing survivals? Intuitively, due to the definitiveness of failures, the answer seems to be the former. However, it has been shown before that this intuition holds when estimating the mean but not the failure rate of the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution for the failure rate. In this article, we address this question at a more general level. We show that for a certain class of distributions failures can be more informative than survivals for prediction of life length and vice versa for some others. We also show that for a large class of lifetime models, failure is less informative than survival for estimating the proportional hazards parameter with gamma, Jeffreys, and uniform priors. We further show that, for this class of lifetime models, on average, failure is more informative than survival for parameter estimation and for prediction. These results imply that the inferential purpose and properties of the lifetime distribution are germane for conducting life tests. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

The failure of defense planning in European Post-Communist Defense Institutions: ascertaining causation and determining solutions

By any objective measure, defense institutions in Central and Eastern Europe have all but universally been incapable of producing viable defense plans that are based on objective costing and operational planning data. This situation exists in spite the provision of considerable Western advice and assistance, let alone reporting to and receiving assessments by NATO’s International Staff under Partnership for Peace, as well as via the integrated defense planning and reporting systems. An explanation for this systematic failure across European post-Communist defense institutions can be found in the continued slow development of an over-arching policy framework which directs and approves all activities of the armed forces, as well as the de-centralization of financial decision-making down to capability providers. The essay ends with an examination of the adverse effects of the early introduction of planning programming, budgeting system (PPBS), have had on the development of effective policy and planning capabilities within these defense institutions.