惯导速度信息辅助的被动雷达导引头量测误差抑制方法

针对被动雷达导引头由于受空间限制测角精度不高的问题,提出了一种基于弹目信息状态变量的扩展卡尔曼滤波方法。通过弹目信息状态变量(弹目距离、弹目视线方位角、弹目视线俯仰角)描述弹目相对位置信息,利用惯导速度信息构建基于弹目信息状态变量变化率的弹目相对运动模型。所提方法充分利用信息资源,抑制导引头量测随机误差,对于提高导弹的打击精度和攻击效果,具有重要的实际应用价值,仿真试验证明该算法的有效性。     

非线性滤波方法在水下目标跟踪中的应用

在对扩展卡尔曼滤波、不敏卡尔曼滤波和粒子滤波3种非线性滤波方法进行研究的基础上,对粒子滤波算法的重要性密度函数的选取方法进行了研究。结合水下目标的被动跟踪的应用背景,比较了3种滤波算法在水下目标跟踪中的性能差异。结果表明,粒子滤波算法能较好的用于非线性、非高斯条件下的水下目标跟踪。     

Deterrence under nuclear asymmetry: THAAD and the prospects for missile defense on the Korean peninsula

The 2016 decision to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to South Korea has generated multitude of intensely politicized issues and has proved highly controversial. This has made it challenging to alleviate, let alone clarify, points of analytical and policy tensions. We instead disaggregate and revisit two fundamental questions. One is whether THAAD could really defend South Korea from North Korean missiles. We challenge the conventional “qualified optimism” by giving analytical primacy to three countermeasures available to defeat THAAD–use of decoys, tumbling and spiral motion, and outnumbering. These countermeasures are relatively inexpensive to create but exceedingly difficult to offset. Second, we assess the optimal way to ensure South Korean national security against North Korean missiles. By examining the balance of capability and issues of credibility/commitment, we show that the U.S. extended deterrence by punishment remains plentiful and sufficiently credible even without enhancing the current defense capability.     

单星对卫星的仅测角被动定轨跟踪方法研究

针对单星对卫星被动定轨时使用经典轨道根数作为状态变量可能存在奇点且测量方程变量及相应坐标转换缺乏物理意义等问题,提出一种新的基于J2000.0惯性系的单星对卫星扩展Kalman滤波仅测角被动定轨跟踪方法,并对测量方程中的变量及其坐标转换进行明确定义;同时对状态预测方程、状态转移矩阵及测量雅可比矩阵进行详细推导,最后通过STK6.0仿真场景产生的数据对算法在不同初始状态误差和测角精度下的性能进行对比分析和仿真验证。多次仿真结果表明:该算法实现了单颗高轨卫星(准同步轨道)通过仅测量角度对圆轨道(e=0)低轨卫星辐射源的被动定轨和跟踪,当测角精度优于平均角度变化量时,滤波收敛所需时间及估计误差都大大减小,且该算法对滤波初始误差也具有较好的适应性。     

NUCLEAR REDUCTIONS AND MIDDLE EAST STABILITY

The United States faces a series of strategic and policy conundrums as it attempts to promote strategic stability in the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East. This article examines the relationship between a reduced US nuclear arsenal and strategic stability in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. It argues that a series of interrelated political and military factors play a much more significant role in regional security and stability than the US strategic arsenal, which has never, with a few extraordinary exceptions, played a direct role in maintaining regional security. The United States has constructed a system of regional stability based on conventional deterrence and defense that has seen it forward base forces at various installations in the region in combination with efforts to arm, train, and equip host-nation militaries. Nuclear weapons have never played a prominent role in this regional system. Evidence presented in this article suggests that there is no compelling reason for the United States to abandon and/or modify the defensive system of conventional deterrence and defense by adding nuclear-backed guarantees to the mix.     

变质心再入飞行器自抗扰控制器设计(英文)

再入飞行器采用变质心控制不但可以保持较好的气动外形,还町以增大机动能力,但变质心控制较强的非线性和耦合性大大增加了控制系统设计难度,使控制器设计和实施的代价较高。针对这一问题,基于自抗扰控制技术,设计了变质心再入飞行器双通道解耦控制器。通过构造连续光滑扩张状态观测器,不加区分飞行器的各类干扰与耦合,对其统一进行估计:利用非线性状态反馈控制律,并自适应调节控制参数对其进行补偿,实现对飞行器姿态的解耦控制。仿真结果表明:该方法大大降低了对系统模型精度的要求与控制器设计实施代价,对变质心再入飞行器非线性、耦合性以及参数摄动具有较强的鲁棒性。     

基于通信延迟误差补偿的协同导航算法

多自主水下航行器(MAUV)协同导航技术是解决水下定位的重要手段。主从式多AUV协同导航系统利用水声通信方式实现数据共享,但由于声速在水中传播较慢,使得接收到的量测信息具有通信延迟。因此,针对通信延迟问题提出了一种新息重建的状态估计补偿方法,通过对从AUV进行状态递推,获得在有无量测延迟两种情况下的状态误差,将此误差作为重建的新息补偿到状态估计中。仿真结果验证了该方法能够有效地补偿协同导航中由于通信延迟造成的定位误差,提高从AUV的定位精度。     

水中兵器延寿样本的装载可靠度鉴定试验方案

针对延寿样本子样少,按经典GJB899法对装载可靠度鉴定需要较长的试验时间这一实际情况,提出了一种减少试验时间的Bayes方法.该方法通过挖掘延寿前装载失效率信息,确定先验分布,再开展陆上加速装载试验以增加装载信息,并结合实际装载信息制定了装载可靠度鉴定试验新方案.实例计算表明:在确保鉴定效果的前提下,新方法可在较小的延寿样本条件下快速完成装载可靠度鉴定工作,满足水中兵器延寿工程的实际需要.     

新型光电装备延伸保修决策方法研究

延伸保修是开展军民融合式装备保障的重要技术手段之一,通过合理选择延伸保修策略,可以在有限的经济条件下较好地完成维修保障任务,提高装备维修保障效益.针对新型光电装备特点,在考虑安全性、任务性和经济性因素的背景下,提出一种由逻辑决断分析法和模糊层次分析法相结合的延伸保修决策方法.通过逻辑决断分析从定性角度选择合理的延伸保修策略,采用模糊层次分析法对逻辑决断得到的结果进行定量补充分析,为类似装备的延伸保修决策提供决策参考.     

考虑输入受限的高超声速飞行器预设性能控制

针对考虑输入幅值与速率受限的高超声速飞行器跟踪性能问题,提出基于受限指令滤波器的预设性能控制方案。为了提高系统瞬态和稳态性能,设计预设性能反演控制器,并通过设计新的性能函数使得跟踪误差超调量更小。引入指令滤波器来处理反演控制器设计中难以求导的问题。针对输入受限问题,构造一种受限指令滤波器来约束系统控制律,保证控制输入满足幅值和速率的限制要求,并进行相应的理论证明。另外,考虑系统参数不确定性与外界干扰,采用线性扩张状态观测器进行观测并补偿。基于Lyapunov稳定理论证明系统的所有跟踪误差最终一致有界。通过仿真验证该方法的有效性。