一种双参数批更换系统的优化问题

研究了一种在更换时间有限的情况下 ,基于交替更新过程的双参数批更换系统的优化问题 ,这一问题的目标是平均费用率的极小化。给出了一种特殊情况的讨论结果。     

Inventory competition with yield reliability improvement

This article studies the inventory competition under yield uncertainty. Two firms with random yield compete for substitutable demand: If one firm suffers a stockout, which can be caused by yield failure, its unsatisfied customers may switch to its competitor. We first study the case in which two competing firms decide order quantities based on the exogenous reliability levels. The results from the traditional inventory competition are generalized to the case with yield uncertainty and we find that quantity and reliability can be complementary instruments in the competition. Furthermore, we allow the firms to endogenously improve their yield reliability before competing in quantity. We show that the reliability game is submodular under some assumptions. The results indicate that the competition in quantity can discourage the reliability improvement. With an extensive numerical study, we also demonstrate the robustness of our analytical results in more general settings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 107–126, 2015     

利用验前信息的一种序贯检验方法——序贯验后加权检验方法

序贯验后加权检验方法是Bayes 统计观点在假设检验中的运用。本文提出了该方法的一般理论,给出了当总体的分布参数具有验前信息时的序贯检验方法。文中确定了决策区的划分,同时讨论了序贯截尾方案,给出了检验中可能犯两类错误的概率的上界,并将一般理论应用于产品的可靠性检验和再入飞行器随机落点的精度鉴定。由于运用了验前信息,因此能有效地在少量试验之下进行统计假设检验。本文所提供的方法对于昂贵产品试验结果的统计评定具有普遍意义。     

Testing or fault-finding for reliability growth: A missile destructive-test example

A new piece of equipment has been purchased in a lot of size m. Some of the items can be used in destructive testing before the item is put into use. Testing uncovers faults which can be removed from the remaining pieces of equipment in the lot. If t < m pieces of equipment are tested, then those that remain, m₁ = m − t, have reduced fault incidence and are more reliable than initially, but m₁ may be too small to be useful, or than is desirable. In this paper models are studied to address this question: given the lot size m, how to optimize by choice of t the effectiveness of the pieces of equipment remaining after the test. The models used are simplistic and illustrative; they can be straightforwardly improved. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 623–637, 1997     

Deterrence under nuclear asymmetry: THAAD and the prospects for missile defense on the Korean peninsula

The 2016 decision to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to South Korea has generated multitude of intensely politicized issues and has proved highly controversial. This has made it challenging to alleviate, let alone clarify, points of analytical and policy tensions. We instead disaggregate and revisit two fundamental questions. One is whether THAAD could really defend South Korea from North Korean missiles. We challenge the conventional “qualified optimism” by giving analytical primacy to three countermeasures available to defeat THAAD–use of decoys, tumbling and spiral motion, and outnumbering. These countermeasures are relatively inexpensive to create but exceedingly difficult to offset. Second, we assess the optimal way to ensure South Korean national security against North Korean missiles. By examining the balance of capability and issues of credibility/commitment, we show that the U.S. extended deterrence by punishment remains plentiful and sufficiently credible even without enhancing the current defense capability.     

MANET多路径路由中最大可靠性路径选择算法

如何选择路径的数量和质量对多路径路由机制的性能有着重要的影响。已有的多路径算法没有深入研究如何选择多路径的问题。对目前存在的两个典型问题进行了分析,在此基础上研究了路径可靠性模型和虚拟完全非交叉多路径模型,然后提出一个最大可靠性多路径选择算法。算法利用路径权重作为路径可靠性的近似解决方案,以此克服路径可靠性度量问题(NP难题)研究的复杂性,根据路径可靠性模型和完全非交叉多路径模型来选择可靠的路径集,使用这组路径集并行分布流量。应用OPNET模拟平台实现了算法,结果表明,本算法能增加聚合带宽,优化网络带宽的应用,提高网络的吞吐率和多路径路由的性能。     

单星对卫星的仅测角被动定轨跟踪方法研究

针对单星对卫星被动定轨时使用经典轨道根数作为状态变量可能存在奇点且测量方程变量及相应坐标转换缺乏物理意义等问题,提出一种新的基于J2000.0惯性系的单星对卫星扩展Kalman滤波仅测角被动定轨跟踪方法,并对测量方程中的变量及其坐标转换进行明确定义;同时对状态预测方程、状态转移矩阵及测量雅可比矩阵进行详细推导,最后通过STK6.0仿真场景产生的数据对算法在不同初始状态误差和测角精度下的性能进行对比分析和仿真验证。多次仿真结果表明:该算法实现了单颗高轨卫星(准同步轨道)通过仅测量角度对圆轨道(e=0)低轨卫星辐射源的被动定轨和跟踪,当测角精度优于平均角度变化量时,滤波收敛所需时间及估计误差都大大减小,且该算法对滤波初始误差也具有较好的适应性。     

去偏转换坐标卡尔曼滤波器的雷达目标跟踪

在雷达目标跟踪中 ,扩展卡尔曼滤波 (EKF)和转换坐标卡尔曼滤波 (CMKF)得到了广泛的应用。但当目标方位角的测量误差与目标斜距的乘积较大时 ,传统的EKF和CMKF的滤波性能会大大降低。推导了有测速元时的去偏转换卡尔曼滤波 (DCMKF)算法 ,仿真结果表明DCMKF的精度比EKF与CMKF有了很大的提高     

On a class of multiple failure mode systems

The primary objective of this work is to introduce and perform a detailed study of a class of multistate reliability structures in which no ordering in the levels of components' performances is necessary. In particular, the present paper develops the basic theory (exact reliability formulae, reliability bounds, asymptotic results) that will make it feasible to investigate systems whose components are allowed to experience m ≥ 2 kinds of failure (failure modes), and their breakdown is described by different families of cut sets in each mode. For illustration purposes, two classical (binary) systems are extended to analogous multiple failure mode structures, and their reliability performance (bounds and asymptotic behavior) is investigated by numerical experimentation. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 167–185, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10007