Imperial nostalgia,the liberal lie,and the perils of postmodern counterinsurgency

Since 9/11, counterinsurgency is back in fashion; the ‘war on terror’ has even been branded a ‘global counterinsurgency’. However the context within which counterinsurgency originally arose is critical to understanding the prospects for its present success; the radically changed environment in which it is currently being conducted casts into considerable doubt the validity of the doctrine's application by many national militaries currently ‘rediscovering’ this school of military thought today. Above all, classical counterinsurgency was a profoundly imperial, state-centric phenomenon; consequently it only rarely faced the thorny issue of sovereignty and legitimacy which bedevils and may doom these same efforts today.     

The African warlord revisited

To date, warlordism in Africa has been viewed solely negatively. This has come about, in part, because of the analytical lenses that have been used. Typically, warlordism has been examined at the state level; and behavioural traits, rather than definitionally necessary components, have been the focus. In effect, ‘warlord’ has been confused with other violent actors. I suggest here a reconceptualisation ‘from below’, which takes into account variation in types of warlordism, and which allows for both positive and negative effects of warlordism on society and the state.     

CORRUPTION,PERCEPTION AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

Bribery undermines human development and a transition to stable democratic rule. It props up illegitimate regimes as corporations bid for contracts by bribing, in a seeming race to the bottom. The world's wealthy are slowly waking up to this and criminalising this scandalous practice of bribing foreign public officials. However, such measures, if enforced, need to be combined with domestic anti-corruption strategies in the South. If this opportunity is missed, the risk of investing private capital in marginalised economies perceived to be highly corrupt is further upped, making investment-driven economic growth possibly even less unattainable.     

THE AU MISSION IN BURUNDI

Abstract

Even though the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, MPLA) managed to take firm control of the state as the war ended in 2002, this article contends that its hegemony is not absolute. At the fringes of the state administration, emerging regional elites have established associations that seek to provide a remedy against the centralised system, which essentially deprives regions of political influence and sufficient economic resources. As in many other countries on the African continent, political identities that were legally enforced and institutionally reproduced in colonial times have hardly been transcended in the post-colonial period. Even if the associations' influence today does not yet reach further than bringing some insecurity to an otherwise secure polity dominated by the MPLA, the associations could play a role in reinforcing strong regional solidarity and give political expression to feelings of exclusion. Such sentiments could in turn lead to an increase of exclusivity ideas about citizenship, or even xenophobic violence. Much will depend on the strategies of the MPLA, and to what extent it will accommodate these emergent forces in the post-war era, not the least through the current sub-national state reforms.     

POLITICAL SURVIVAL AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, by Etel Solingen. Princeton University Press, 2007. 404 pages, $26.95.     

一种纯方位跟踪中的自适应滤波算法

针对纯方位被动目标跟踪中扩展卡尔曼滤波算法易发散的不足,提出了一种自适应的改进算法。该算法利用极大后验噪声估计器Sage-Husa对虚拟观测噪声进行实时在线估计,动态补偿线性化带来的误差。算法的对比仿真分析结果表明,AEKF较之EKF滤波效果有所改善,增强了稳定性,提高了精度,为水下纯方位被动目标跟踪的实现提供一种新的方法。     

假设检验在军事工程应用中的若干问题

对假设检验这一统计学工具在军事工程应用中值得注意的若干问题进行了探讨,包括假设的设置、检验门限的设置和统计量的构造等,这些问题在理论上有一些一般的指导,但在实际工程应用中,需要根据具体问题进行设计,这中间涉及一些技巧和经验,也容易出现一些常被忽视的问题。指出了这些问题,并给出了在实际工程中应用好假设检验的一些建议。     

磷虾群免疫粒子滤波的机载单站无源定位算法

为了进一步提高机载单站无源定位的精度,将磷虾群优化思想引入到粒子滤波的重采样阶段,提出了一种磷虾群免疫粒子滤波算法。该算法利用磷虾的受诱导运动、觅食以及随机扩散行为,将粒子导向高似然区域,有效缓解了粒子退化问题。同时,其采用了人工免疫算法的变异操作,避免了早熟现象的出现,提高了粒子的多样性,克服了粒子贫化问题。仿真结果表明,新算法改善了机载单站无源定位的定位精度以及收敛速度。     

自适应平方根无迹滤波的雷达组网状态估计算法

从最小方差的角度分析了雷达组网无迹滤波(Unscented Filter,UF)状态估计的统计学本质,并且针对UF的Cholesky分解遇到非半正定矩阵容易发散、不准确滤波初值造成滤波发散以及异常扰动影响滤波效果等问题,提出将自适应平方根无迹滤波(Adaptive Square Root Unscented Filter,ASQUF)用于雷达组网状态估计,结合合理的滤波初始化策略,提高了UF的工程可用性。仿真验证表明,提出的ASRUF算法用于雷达组网空域目标状态估计时,初始化平稳无波动,工程可用性好,状态估计精度高,明显优于扩展卡尔曼滤波(Extended Kalman Filter,EKF)算法。     

比例最小偏度单形UKF的RBF神经网络算法

为提高RBF神经网络的建模性能,提出一种基于改进无迹Kalman滤波(UKF)的RBF神经网络训练算法。在该算法中,首先将比例最小偏度单形Sigma点采样策略引入UT,以有效改进UKF,提升其计算效率,然后利用改进的UKF优化估计RBF神经网络的最优参数。仿真结果表明,改进的UKF比EKF具有更高的RBF神经网络模型训练精度,与传统UKF的模型精度大体相当,但速度更快,计算效率更高。