A theory of war finance

This paper analyses the financial and war‐spending policies of a state that faces a conflict in which defeat would result in the loss of sovereign power and in which the material consequences, conditional on avoiding defeat, are stochastic. The analysis takes explicit account of the historical experiences of lenders, who face debt repudiation if the state to whom they have lent is defeated and who also face partial default if the material consequences of the war are unfavorable for the debtor state, even if it avoids defeat. In this analysis, the state uses war debt to smooth expected consumption intertemporally in response to temporary war spending, and the state also uses contingent debt servicing to insure realized consumption against the risk associated with the material consequences of the war. An important innovation in the analysis is to treat the equilibrium amount of war spending, the state's resulting probability of avoiding defeat, as well as the equilibrium amount of borrowing as a set of endogenous variables to be determined simultaneously.     

Reforming the notion of national sovereignty by external intervention

In principle, national sovereignty is the right of a nation to govern its internal affairs without foreign interference. In practice, it is defined by one's interpretation of international law, which may permit legal external intervention under some circumstances, ultimately removing a nation's sovereignty. This paper will examine the current system of international law outlined by the United Nations, analyse the ambiguities contained within its Charter and elaborate on how external intervention can be justified. The case-study of recent developments related to Libya will demonstrate that the manner in which international law is interpreted is changing the notion of principles of sovereignty.     

基于心理调查和空间干预的人群心理仿真

突发危机事件中人群心理评估是当前危机管理急需解决的难点问题.由于突发危机事件群体心理数据采集的困难性和人群心理变化的复杂性等原因,传统方法很难准确评估群体心理效果.随着计算机科学的发展,建模仿真成为解决这类问题的有效手段.以复杂适应系统理论为指导,采用基于Agent的建模与仿真方法,研究外部事件刺激下群体的心理行为,构...     

浅谈维和警察防暴队战术协同

研究维和警察防暴队战术协同的特点、原则和方法,一方面可以丰富维和警察防暴队教学的基础理论,另一方面也可为维和警察防暴队在任务区执行任务提供理论支持。     

外挂式导弹机弹分离气动干扰特性研究

以经典的机翼/挂架/导弹组合模型为例,采用重叠网格软件系统和计算流体力学技术,从机弹干扰工况简化和气动干扰特性影响因素分析两个方面对外挂式导弹机弹分离气动干扰特性进行研究。导弹分离轨迹参数和气动干扰系数的数值预示结果与捕获轨迹试验结果吻合,表明该计算方法能有效预测机弹分离轨迹和分析导弹与载机间复杂气动干扰现象。根据计算流体力学结果,从马赫数、机翼攻角、导弹攻角等方面,给出导弹在不同分离工况下的气动干扰规律,并采用增量系数法对缺失工况进行一阶外插处理的气动干扰数据外推方法,可应用于机载外挂空基武器的机弹分离轨迹预示和气动干扰特性设计中,具有重要的工程应用价值。     

伞翼无人机线性自抗扰高度控制

针对伞翼无人机参数不确定性和复杂环境干扰敏感的问题,提出一种伞翼无人机线性自抗扰(Linear Active Disturbance Rejection Control,LADRC)高度控制方法。建立伞翼无人机8自由度飞行动力学模型,并引入风场和降雨模型以更加准确地模拟真实飞行环境。基于LADRC确定总体控制架构,设计线性扩张状态观测器对所有扰动进行估计,并引入误差反馈率在控制中实时补偿。使用该控制方法在多种扰动工况下进行伞翼无人机高度控制仿真实验。仿真结果表明,基于LADRC的高度控制方法能够有效克服内扰和外扰的影响,实现高精度高度控制;与传统PID控制效果相比,LADRC控制器具有更好的抗扰能力和鲁棒性。     

The African Peace and Security Architecture and its partners

This article presents survey data on the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). It focuses explicitly on two aspects: the internal constitution and achievements of the APSA; and coordination and cooperation with external actors, such as Regional Economic Communities, the United Nations and the European Union. The survey, conducted between October 2011 and December 2012, targeted 198 security experts in international organisations, think tanks, academia and non-governmental organisations. It reveals the APSA's current stage of development, achievements and challenges.     

Financial versus human resources in the Greek‐Turkish arms race: A forecasting investigation using artificial neural networks

This paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is determined, to a large, extent, by demographic factors which strongly favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones.     

建筑外装修及外保温系统的消防安全问题及对策

建筑外部装修及外保温系统的消防安全问题日益突出,结合实际中的建筑外部装修及外保温系统现状,分析了建筑外部装修及外保温系统对消防安全的影响,分析发现建筑外部装修及外保温系统的消防安全隐患大,需要给予足够的重视,并根据实际确定了相应的对策。     

论贩毒案件的侦查方法

贩毒案件在各种毒品犯罪案件中居主导地位,公安机关非常重视对贩毒案件的侦查。通过对贩毒案件特点的分析,阐述了贩毒案件的侦查方法。