自适应滤波的舰船综合导航系统信息融合技术

针对当前舰船综合导航系统应用环境较为复杂的实际情况,设计了一种基于极大似然准则自适应滤波的无重置联邦滤波器,该联邦滤波器相比常规的无重置联邦滤波器不仅可以提高系统稳定性,还可以提高系统的组合精度。将文中设计的这一联邦滤波器用于舰船综合导航系统设计中,并针对该设计进行了多次车载跑车试验,证明了该方法的正确性和优越性。     

战争系统复杂性及其基于Agent建模仿真研究进展

复杂性科学是当今世界科学发展的热点和前沿,其研究与应用正迅速向各个学科渗透和扩展,成为备受众多领域科学家关注的交叉学科研究领域.目前,在军事科学领域,战争复杂性的问题正日益受到学者们的广泛关注.应用复杂系统建模与仿真方法对战争复杂性问题进行建模与仿真研究是一种有别于传统的基于兰切斯特方程等数学模型方法研究战争问题的一种新方法.讨论了战争系统复杂性问题,在掌握现有资料的基础上,力图较全面介绍国内外关于基于Agent战争系统复杂性建模与仿真方面的最新研究进展,并对相关的研究成果给出了自己的看法.     

考虑入口和出口容积效应的涡轮动力学模型

建立了考虑涡轮入口和出口容积效应的涡轮动力学模型 ,利用该模型计算了燃气涡轮气瓶启动的动态响应过程 ,分析了影响涡轮动态特性的主要因素。计算结果表明 :涡轮前容积对涡轮入口压力和出口背压的过渡过程均有显著的影响 ,涡轮后容积对涡轮入口压力的过渡过程影响不大 ,对涡轮出口背压的影响显著。     

应力-强度模型的Bayes可靠性分析

当应力、强度分别服从于正态分布、指数分布和Weibull分布时 ,分析了应力 -强度模型的可靠性评估 ,着重讨论了无信息验前下的Bayes可靠性评估。仿真结果表明 ,无信息验前下的评估结论可以很好地用频率学派的观点来解释。     

Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach

The economic growth effects of military expenditure have been the subject of a large literature in defence economics. Theories on the economic impacts of military expenditure greatly differ and include arguments that they either enhance economic growth or crowd out productive investments. Empirical literature on defence expenditure and economic growth nexus generally employs linear specifications to investigate the impact of defence expenditures on economic growth. Although it is now well established that many economic variables may have a non-linear data-generating mechanism, it seems that this reality has long been neglected in empirical work on defence–growth nexus. This paper attempts to fill this gap by employing non-linear panel data models to examine the effects of military expenditures on economic growth for Middle Eastern countries and Turkey, for the time period 1988–2012. Results show that the effect of military expenditure on economic growth is nonlinear such that the state of the economy actually determines the effect of the former on the latter. This is important not only in showing asymmetric relationship between these variables but also in revealing the reasons of mixed results of earlier literature.     

Applying Lanchester's linear law to model the Ardennes campaign

In modern warfare, many believe the decisive factor in winning a battle is seizing the right moment to shift from defense to attack, or vice versa. This paper attempts to bring that perspective to Lanchester's differential equations of warfare, and continues the application of Lanchester's linear law to the analysis of the World War II battle of Ardennes, as reported in earlier issues of Naval Research Logistics by Bracken and by Fricker. A new variable, shift time, accounting for the timing of the shift between defense and attack is explicitly included in our version of the model, and it helps obtain improved goodness of fit to historical data. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:653–661, 2001     

Operating Costs of Aging Air Force Aircraft: Adjusting for Aggregate Budget Effects

The rate at which operating costs grow as aircraft age is important for setting operating budgets and for deciding when to replace aging systems. While studies using data from the 1990's typically found 1–3 percent real rates of growth in operating costs as aircraft age, studies using data from the 2000's found greater rates, for example in the 4–6 percent range. Growth in the total U.S. Air Force budget during the 2000s appears to explain much of the higher estimated annual growth rates in operating costs per flying hour beyond the growth rate intrinsic to the aging of the fleet.     

基于概率分析法的无人攻击机作战效能分析模型研究

未来防空战场上无人攻击机已成为一种重要的空中威胁。无人攻击机作战过程可分为飞行、突防、攻击三个阶段,运用概率分析方法分别建立了各阶段的数学模型,给出了其作战效能表达式,为进一步进行无人攻击机作战效能分析提供了模型基础。     

When is model complexity too much? Illustrating the benefits of simple models with Hughes' salvo equations

The simulations that many defense analysts rely upon in their studies continue to grow in size and complexity. This paper contrasts the guidance that the authors have received—from some of the giants of military operations research—with the current practice. In particular, the analytic utility of Hughes' simple salvo equations is compared with that of the complex Joint Warfighting System (JWARS), with respect to JWARS' key performance parameters. The comparison suggests that a family of analytic tools supports the best analyses. It follows that smaller, more agile, and transparent models, such as Hughes' salvo equations, are underutilized in defense analyses. We believe that these models should receive more attention, use, and funding. To illustrate this point, this paper uses two very simple models (by modern standards) to rapidly generate insights on the value of information relative to force strength. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

一种北斗／CDMA导航系统数据融合的联邦卡尔曼滤波算法

北斗卫星与CDMA无线网络定位相结合的组合导航系统可以广泛应用于军事和民用领域,而有效进行数据融合是提高北斗/CDMA组合导航系统定位精度的关键.针对北斗/CDMA组合导航系统的特点,提出了一种基于联邦卡尔曼滤波的北斗/CDMA导航数据融合算法.算法采用机动目标的"当前"统计模型,分别建立了北斗定位系统和CDMA定位系统的状态方程,通过对相应定位参数进行滤波处理,提高了北斗/CDMA导航系统的定位精度.